Planespotting II
Apr 30th 2020, 5:40 pm
#646
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Re: Planespotting II
It is clearly going to be a number or months before any attempt to reopen international flights is possible, and as there is currently very little appetite for domestic travel within the US, I think that is a fair predictor for what will happen when the out-right bans on non-citizens/ LPRs of the destination country) are lifted, i.e. there won't be much demand.
As I have predicted before on BE (and been ranted at by some for saying it), and the BBC web site repeated as recently as yesterday, there is little likelihood of a vaccine being widely available before mid 2021, and that is only a best case scenario. So the prospects for international air travel returning to anything like 2019 is IMO years away, and with little demand and many very modern aircraft "parked up" for the foreseeable future, I think that the prospects for Boeing or Airbus selling more than a handful of civilian aircraft per year in the next five years has to be extremely slim, and that cutting 10% of Boeing's workforce will be overshadowed by more cuts coming - I think I saw that Airbus was talking about cutting of a third of their workforce, but I don't think that will be enough either.
As I have predicted before on BE (and been ranted at by some for saying it), and the BBC web site repeated as recently as yesterday, there is little likelihood of a vaccine being widely available before mid 2021, and that is only a best case scenario. So the prospects for international air travel returning to anything like 2019 is IMO years away, and with little demand and many very modern aircraft "parked up" for the foreseeable future, I think that the prospects for Boeing or Airbus selling more than a handful of civilian aircraft per year in the next five years has to be extremely slim, and that cutting 10% of Boeing's workforce will be overshadowed by more cuts coming - I think I saw that Airbus was talking about cutting of a third of their workforce, but I don't think that will be enough either.
Really sucks for the Vancouver Airport and others who had massive expansions in progress, we went from overcapacity and needing new terminal space back to mid 1990's level and still falling and the domestic terminal being completely closed and partially built terminal construction halted.
All companies combined over 50% of people who were working at the airport in February are laid off and keeps climbing, and that is just direct jobs at the airport not counting the indirect jobs like hotels, shuttles etc.
Bad times for sure for many years.
Last edited by scrubbedexpat091; Apr 30th 2020 at 5:43 pm.
Apr 30th 2020, 6:18 pm
#647
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Milwaukie, Oregon
Posts: 9,970
Re: Planespotting II
Unless of course it is just mother nature correcting the damage done to the planet by over population and pollution. In which case from that point of view there are good times ahead.
Apr 30th 2020, 6:36 pm
#648
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Re: Planespotting II
BA are planning to cut a quarter of pilots. I can’t help but think there is a little more to this though. BA is the only IAG carrier experiencing cuts at the moment. There’s always been a bad relationship between crews and unions and the management. What with new staff hired by BA are paid a pittance and have shite conditions, I wonder if they are taking the chance to rid the company of the old militant high paid folk. BAA were always trying to do that by ways of VR.
Apr 30th 2020, 7:20 pm
#649
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Joined: Dec 2001
Location: Dixie, ex UK
Posts: 52,455
Re: Planespotting II
I am glad you said that as some have accused me on other threads of being alarmist, but things continue to unfold exactly as some of the more informed minds were predicting 6-8 weeks ago in early-mid March as things unraveled rapidly. I think that realistically Boeing and Airbus can pretty much shut down production, and just keep a few staff in maintenance, and some core R&D staff. They can probably pretty much mothball their production facilities for at least the next five years. And, if it needs to be said, there won't be any more 747's or A380's built, they're done!
And then there's a year's 737 MAX production that was already sitting parked unused.
I am certain he has entirely valid concerns.
Last edited by Pulaski; Apr 30th 2020 at 7:58 pm.
Apr 30th 2020, 7:49 pm
#650
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Re: Planespotting II
I am kind of surprised the US is still operating pre-clearance from the various Canadian airports, with so little traffic, seems like a waste of money at the moment, but guess it costs money to move the officers so maybe its a wash in the end. Airports might prefer it though so they could condense all operations, Vancouver put all domestic and non-US international departures into one terminal as departures to non-US international destinations can co-mingle with domestic departures, but US departures cannot so they have to operate the US departure terminal for like 5 flights a day....
Apr 30th 2020, 8:43 pm
#651
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Milwaukie, Oregon
Posts: 9,970
Apr 30th 2020, 8:52 pm
#652
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Location: Dixie, ex UK
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Apr 30th 2020, 9:39 pm
#653
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Apr 30th 2020, 10:18 pm
#655
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Re: Planespotting II
And the FAA’s seriously deep pockets. If airports are getting bailed out, surely they would step in and keep Boeing going. There is no on earth I could see the government letting Boeing go under.
Apr 30th 2020, 10:30 pm
#656
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Location: Near Lynchburg Tennessee, home of Jack Daniels
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Re: Planespotting II
Companies like Boeing, Lockheed, General Dynamics are as important to national defense as institutions like the Marine Corps. I can’t see any of them being allowed to go bankrupt.
Apr 30th 2020, 10:40 pm
#657
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Location: Dixie, ex UK
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Re: Planespotting II
GM went bankrupt but was "too big to fail", and needed a massive amount of government money to be recapitalized, but the previous stockholders lost almost everything.
Apr 30th 2020, 10:51 pm
#658
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May 1st 2020, 1:12 am
#659
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Re: Planespotting II
Appears Boeing wont be seeking government financial assistance at this time after securing $25 billion in bond offerings.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/boei...deral-aid.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/boei...deral-aid.html
May 1st 2020, 2:26 am
#660
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Joined: Nov 2007
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 13,158
Re: Planespotting II
Appears Boeing wont be seeking government financial assistance at this time after securing $25 billion in bond offerings.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/boei...deral-aid.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/boei...deral-aid.html
Can someone with some background in 'the market' explain to me how this $25 billion bond works? Who exactly is putting up this money, and what are they getting in return? It seems like a bold move.