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Moving to America despite hating it

Moving to America despite hating it

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Old Nov 10th 2014, 2:54 am
  #826  
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Jsmth321
They are trying to build one in my town, well across the sound where an old wood mill used to be, but it has no public support and great amount of people not wanting it.

I really can't blame them, locally it will create nearly no jobs since nobody locally is qualified for them, and the small amount of jobs it will crate again doesn't seem worth the risk to the environment.

While construction would crate 500 temporary jobs, the amount of permanent jobs is only expected to be 100, and they will likely not be people already living here, and likely will be people from and living in Vancouver or elsewhere.

No clue if it will be approved, but the government has had to reduce the proposed LNG tax because companies are losing interest, one company has already pulled out.

100 jobs ,not really an economic boom if you ask me.

Project Benefits | Woodfibre LNG

I am also worried about the potential air quality issues, even with the promise they will now use electric generators, also a concern are large ships navigating the sound which is not open ocean and just recovering from past industrial pollution, as well as environmental concerns of extending a natural gas pipeline to the site since there is currently no access to natural gas at the site.


Overall I see no long term local benefit to risk it, but I am not in charge, and the company who wants to build it is trying to bribe locals by saying they will pay 2 million in annual taxes, hardly sufficient to make up for the risk.
Natural gas is not like tar sands so spills should not be a major issue in the bay. Even if a LNG tanker breaks apart, LGN will turn in natural gas and evaporate immediately.

The biggest danger from natural gas is explosions.

Although BC may only get $2 million in annual taxes, Ottawa should get a lot.

It sounds like BC has a anti-growth lobby similar but opposite to the pro-growth lobby in the US. Environmentalist can find a reason to defeat every project just like pro-growth lobbies can find a reason to approve every project. It also sounds like Canadians think of themselves more like independent provinces instead of one nation. Sometimes common sense has to prevail.

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Old Nov 10th 2014, 3:41 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Michael
Natural gas is not like tar sands so spills should not be a major issue in the bay. Even if a LNG tanker breaks apart, LGN will turn in natural gas and evaporate immediately.

The biggest danger from natural gas is explosions.
Back in the 1990's I was involved with some risk modelling on the big LNG ships we were running in to Tokyo Bay. The damage patterns predicted for one of those ships going up alongside made Hiroshima look like a hand grenade. They were c.125,000m3 ships - the big ones these days are over 30,000m3 bigger. That being said, the LNG ships have (or "had" - I'm not really up to date these days) the best record of any merchant class. There really hadn't been any significant incidents, other than a couple of tiny spills on bunkering/lube operations. Of course, one of the problems with perfect safety records is the increasing belief that because nothing has gone wrong, nothing can go wrong.....

That being said, if I were going to have anything coming into my back yard, I'd much rather have an LNG ship than any of the other classes of tankers - crude, products, lubes or chemicals.
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Old Nov 10th 2014, 4:12 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Yorkieabroad
Back in the 1990's I was involved with some risk modelling on the big LNG ships we were running in to Tokyo Bay. The damage patterns predicted for one of those ships going up alongside made Hiroshima look like a hand grenade. They were c.125,000m3 ships - the big ones these days are over 30,000m3 bigger. That being said, the LNG ships have (or "had" - I'm not really up to date these days) the best record of any merchant class. There really hadn't been any significant incidents, other than a couple of tiny spills on bunkering/lube operations. Of course, one of the problems with perfect safety records is the increasing belief that because nothing has gone wrong, nothing can go wrong.....

That being said, if I were going to have anything coming into my back yard, I'd much rather have an LNG ship than any of the other classes of tankers - crude, products, lubes or chemicals.
If Europe's environmental groups haven't been able to stop the construction of LNG importing terminals, they must have bigger battles to fight and it appears that Europe is getting ready for American exports of LNG.

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Old Nov 10th 2014, 4:47 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Michael
What makes sense to me for America is building LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) export terminals. Currently the US produces more natural gas than it can use, Europe and Japan need natural gas, and US fracking operations for natural gas has been limited because of the low price and over abundance. Currently there are 4 LNG export terminals that have been approved plus one in Alaska that been operating since 1969. It hasn't been that the federal government has been holding up approval but companies have been slow to ask for approval. For the four terminals, construction will cost about $32 billion creating a lot of US jobs and likely spark a boom in natural gas fracking.

Feds Approve Fourth LNG Export Terminal Amid Growing Pressure To Cash In On US Energy Boom

If all 14 of the others that are proposed get approved and built, that will be a lot of American jobs. How much will that affect the price of natural gas in the US by exporting so much natural gas? Probably not a significant amount due to the high cost to build the LNG terminals and most of the cost for natural gas to residential use is distribution. Canada still hasn't had any LNG export terminals approved.
I was wondering why there are two proposed export terminals in Oregon and then it dawned on me that again, Canada is trying to export it's natural gas via the US. Upon reading about one of the terminals, it got approval to export American LNG to NAFTA countries and then applied for approval from the Canadian government to import natural gas from Canada to the US and then applied to the US government for approval to export LNG to non-NAFTA countries. Since they got approval to export LNG to NAFTA countries, it will make it difficult for the US government to refuse the project just because Canadian natural gas is exported. A little trickery I believe.

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Old Nov 10th 2014, 5:55 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Michael
Natural gas is not like tar sands so spills should not be a major issue in the bay. Even if a LNG tanker breaks apart, LGN will turn in natural gas and evaporate immediately.

The biggest danger from natural gas is explosions.

Although BC may only get $2 million in annual taxes, Ottawa should get a lot.

It sounds like BC has a anti-growth lobby similar but opposite to the pro-growth lobby in the US. Environmentalist can find a reason to defeat every project just like pro-growth lobbies can find a reason to approve every project. It also sounds like Canadians think of themselves more like independent provinces instead of one nation. Sometimes common sense has to prevail.
Ottawa isn't of my concern. Provinces own the natural resources of their province feds won't get as much as you think they will.

Provinces are more independent then you probably realize.

I see the perspective from this community, we have to deal with the risks, but don't get to see the benefits, we need jobs and companies who actually add a number of jobs, not a small amount of very skilled jobs they likely have to bring workers from elsewhere.

Even the BC government admits now they wont make nearly as much off LNG as they thought they would.

If your going to increase pollution and put a community at risk that doesn't directly benefit the community, hard to blame the people who live in the community that it is good for them.

This was in the local paper about LNG plant they want to build here.

Its a foreign company wanting to build, so profits will likely go over sea's.

"because of Woodfibre LNG’s (WFLNG) organizational setup, transfer pricing and those international tax treaties. WFLNG may be taxed by Singapore, won’t be taxed in Canada."

And, if, as it says it prefers to do, WFLNG builds the plant components overseas, there will be no GST (or PST) or employment taxes on that investment either.

Who knows if BC will get actually receive much LNG tax. Why? The global price of LNG is dropping (global supply is increasing) and the less a LNG co earns, the more the construction cost write-off will cut into BC’s LNG tax on net profits.

Also on July 14, 2014, WFLNG asked Squamish Mayor and Council to charge them the same property tax ($2 million/year) the former Woodfibre pulp mill paid in 2005: for 25 years, to a maximum of $3 million/yr. If the initial property tax for WFLNG should be $5 million/year (reflecting increased property value in the 9 years since 2005), this is less than half the property tax that Squamish expected.

BC Hydro (electric company) wont even make more from the increase in electric use as the industrial rate is lower then the cost to make, so they make up the difference by raising residential rates.

Sorry, there will be “up to” 100 long-term jobs. Though it says it will try, WFLNG doesn’t expect to hire many people presently in Canada for running the LNG export plant. There aren’t any such plants here – none! To run an LNG plant, a person needs prior experience in the same job.


Flawed Logic of Woodfibre LNG : The Squamish Reporter


LNG has thus far not shown they will actually provide long term jobs, taxes, and an actual long term benefit to the community. BC has a very pro-rip everything out government to make wealthy developers rich, but the government has no long term plan on how to bring significant jobs and companies here.

We don't have an interest in high risk to the environment ventures that brings in little benefit to those at risk.

Same with Alberta oil, Alberta benefits from it via royalties and even those are small, but BC benefits little from Alberta having oil.

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Old Nov 10th 2014, 7:43 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Jsmth321
Even the BC government admits now they wont make nearly as much off LNG as they thought they would.

If your going to increase pollution and put a community at risk that doesn't directly benefit the community, hard to blame the people who live in the community that it is good for them.

This was in the local paper about LNG plant they want to build here.

Its a foreign company wanting to build, so profits will likely go over sea's.

"because of Woodfibre LNG’s (WFLNG) organizational setup, transfer pricing and those international tax treaties. WFLNG may be taxed by Singapore, won’t be taxed in Canada."

And, if, as it says it prefers to do, WFLNG builds the plant components overseas, there will be no GST (or PST) or employment taxes on that investment either.

Who knows if BC will get actually receive much LNG tax. Why? The global price of LNG is dropping (global supply is increasing) and the less a LNG co earns, the more the construction cost write-off will cut into BC’s LNG tax on net profits.

Also on July 14, 2014, WFLNG asked Squamish Mayor and Council to charge them the same property tax ($2 million/year) the former Woodfibre pulp mill paid in 2005: for 25 years, to a maximum of $3 million/yr. If the initial property tax for WFLNG should be $5 million/year (reflecting increased property value in the 9 years since 2005), this is less than half the property tax that Squamish expected.
LNG has thus far not shown they will actually provide long term jobs, taxes, and an actual long term benefit to the community. BC has a very pro-rip everything out government to make wealthy developers rich, but the government has no long term plan on how to bring significant jobs and companies here.

We don't have an interest in high risk to the environment ventures that brings in little benefit to those at risk.
I partially agree with you. The proposed LNG export terminals on the west coast are small including the ones in Oregon ($500-$700 million each) compare to $10 billion for 3 of the US approved LNG terminals and $1.8 billion for the other. To build the $10 billion terminals will take about 5 years and employ quit a few people directly and for each that is employed, about 5 people are employed in service industries (retail, hospitality, etc.) and offsite employment fabricating and manufacturing products for the terminal. I'm not sure how much Canada will benefit from the offsite fabrication and manufacturing. Finally when they are completed, many more will be hired to run and maintain the large terminals.

Redistribution of wealth to the middle class and poor only occurs when the middle class and poor have something valuable that the richer part of society wants or the government mandates it. The middle class and poor can become valuable if unemployment is low enough. In the 1990s during the tech boom, the poor and the middle class got richer because unemployment rate was low and the richer part of society was willing to pay more for their services. The rich got richer but so did the poor and middle class.

Natural gas prices around the world are high except for the US and Canada. American natural gas at the wellhead is about $3.50 per million BTU and in Europe and Asia, it's about $16 for LNG. Residential costs for natural gas in the continental US are between $8-$18 depending on the location (1,000 cubic feet equals approximately 1 million BTU). But if you look at the price for Hawaii, it's about $49 because of the lack of natural gas. In the Euro area in 2013, the residential price for natural gas averaged about Euro 0.079 per KWh or about $32 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Average Residential Price

File:Half-yearly electricity and gas prices.png - Statistics Explained

Hawaiian Electric may begin shipping LNG in 2016 to multiple islands - Pacific Business News
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Old Nov 10th 2014, 7:57 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Michael
I partially agree with you. The proposed LNG export terminals on the west coast are small including the ones in Oregon ($500-$700 million each) compare to $10 billion for 3 of the US approved LNG terminals and $1.8 billion for the other. To build the $10 billion terminals will take about 5 years and employ quit a few people directly and for each that is employed, about 5 people are employed in service industries (retail, hospitality, etc.) and offsite employment fabricating and manufacturing products for the terminal. I'm not sure how much Canada will benefit from the offsite fabrication and manufacturing. Finally when they are completed, many more will be hired to run and maintain the large terminals.

Redistribution of wealth to the middle class and poor only occurs when the middle class and poor have something valuable that the richer part of society wants or the government mandates it. The middle class and poor can become valuable if unemployment is low enough. In the 1990s during the tech boom, the poor and the middle class got richer because unemployment rate was low and the richer part of society was willing to pay more for their services. The rich got richer but so did the poor and middle class.

Natural gas prices around the world are high except for the US and Canada. American natural gas at the wellhead is about $3.50 per million BTU and in Europe and Asia, it's about $16 for LNG. Residential costs for natural gas in the continental US are between $8-$18 depending on the location (1,000 cubic feet equals approximately 1 million BTU). But if you look at the price for Hawaii, it's about $49 because of the lack of natural gas. In the Euro area in 2013, the residential price for natural gas averaged about Euro 0.079 per KWh or about $32 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Average Residential Price

File:Half-yearly electricity and gas prices.png - Statistics Explained

Hawaiian Electric may begin shipping LNG in 2016 to multiple islands - Pacific Business News


I don't use natural gas so I really have no clue on what people pay for it. I am all electric so on the retail side of natural gas, no clue.

I understand the whole rich get richer and low unemployment and so on, but even when the unemployment was low when I lived in Alberta, us poor folks were not getting any richer. They could not find staff wiling to work for 12 or 13 hour because the oil sands paid better, but for those of left in normal jobs, we were no better off.

Oh well, I have taken a hiatus off work for the time being but the local job situation sucks. Politicians don't understand you can have a successful town relying on being a bedroom community with no real connections to the community, most money spend outside the community and have limited Wal-Mart type jobs and have long term success.
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Old Nov 10th 2014, 8:18 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Jsmth321
I understand the whole rich get richer and low unemployment and so on, but even when the unemployment was low when I lived in Alberta, us poor folks were not getting any richer. They could not find staff wiling to work for 12 or 13 hour because the oil sands paid better, but for those of left in normal jobs, we were no better off.
You can see from the following chart that US real median household income (adjusted for inflation) rose significantly from 1993-2000 but dropped during the Bush and Obama administration. During the Bush administration, real median household income should have rose but all the wealth ended up in the pockets of the richest Americans. Maybe high tech is more generous than bankers.

There is definitely a different mentality since when Noyce (Intel) started giving stock options to all employees, he was called a communist.
Attached Thumbnails Moving to America despite hating it-real-median-household-income.png  

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Old Nov 10th 2014, 8:21 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Jsmth321
I don't use natural gas so I really have no clue on what people pay for it. I am all electric so on the retail side of natural gas, no clue.
You may not use natural gas but natural gas drives most power plants. Therefore natural gas prices are normally reflected in electricity prices.

The following is the comparison of different ways for heating for the Northeast. As you can see, electricity is the most expensive way to heat a home and natural gas it the cheapest. However the North east is one of the higher regions for natural gas so for California and texas, the price should be significantly lower at about the 2/3rds the cost for the same usuage.

As you can see the wellhead price is about the same as 15 years ago but residential prices are up in California.
Attached Thumbnails Moving to America despite hating it-fuelcost_chart_left.gif   Moving to America despite hating it-natural-gas-oil-prices.png   Moving to America despite hating it-n3010ca3m.png  

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Old Nov 10th 2014, 8:33 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Michael
You may not use natural gas but natural gas drives most power plants. Therefore natural gas prices are normally reflected in electricity prices.
Still king coal however.What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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Old Nov 10th 2014, 8:43 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

I thought other states were doing better than that. I didn't expect that they got off coal like California but I thought that coal usage had diminished more than that.
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Old Nov 10th 2014, 9:03 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Michael
I thought other states were doing better than that. I didn't expect that they got off coal like California but I thought that coal usage had diminished more than that.
Not to quibble but aren't a fair portion of California's wind farms located out of state...as in Oregon and Nevada.
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Old Nov 10th 2014, 9:22 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Beaverstate
Not to quibble but aren't a fair portion of California's wind farms located out of state...as in Oregon and Nevada.
Wind power in California refers to the 5,829 megawatts (MW) of wind powered electricity generating capacity operating within California as of June 2013.

The Alta Wind Energy Center is a windfarm located in Tehachapi Pass in Kern County, California. Kern County is reviewing a number of other proposed wind projects that would generate a combined 4,600 megawatts of renewable energy if approved.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_California

The Alta Wind Energy Center is a wind farm located in Tehachapi Pass of the Tehachapi Mountains, in Kern County, California. As of 2013, it is the largest wind farm in the world, with a combined installed capacity of 1,320 MW (1,770,000 hp).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alta_Wind_Energy_Center

Altamont Pass is still the largest concentration of wind turbines in the world, with a capacity of 576 megawatts (MW), producing about 125 MW on average and 1.1 terawatt-hours (TWh) yearly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altamont_Pass_Wind_Farm

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Old Nov 10th 2014, 9:25 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Originally Posted by Michael
Wind power in California refers to the 5,829 megawatts (MW) of wind powered electricity generating capacity operating within California as of June 2013.

The Alta Wind Energy Center is a windfarm located in Tehachapi Pass in Kern County, California. Kern County is reviewing a number of other proposed wind projects that would generate a combined 4,600 megawatts of renewable energy if approved.


Wind power in California - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Altamont Pass is still the largest concentration of wind turbines in the world, with a capacity of 576 megawatts (MW), producing about 125 MW on average and 1.1 terawatt-hours (TWh) yearly.

Altamont Pass Wind Farm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


A lot of birds are killed at Altamont Pass,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shepherds_Flat_Wind_Farm
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Old Nov 10th 2014, 9:40 am
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Default Re: Moving to America despite hating it

Wind power has come down in price and is competitive with natural gas power generation. If Oregon doesn't need the power, is competitively priced, and California needs the power, California would buy it.
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