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Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by FlaviusAetius
(Post 12274966)
You may well be right about California, but consider: your Governor flies to China to negotiate with them to continue to keep Cali in the Paris Accord, your largest cities are all Sanctuary Cities and Cali may become a sanctuary state. It appears to non-Californians as though it is quietly, gradually, seceding now.
The formal secession movement appears to be on hold at this time, but if the Left doesn't triumph in the 2018 mid-term elections and get rid of Trump, it will probably revive and the talk would then really be about a negotiated and amicable exit, with a further split of California into California and Jefferson. The strongest opponent of Calexit would be the national Democratic Party. The state party might be tempted, as it would then rule over an independent California with an iron fist. Venezuela redux. The question of whether certain New England states would turn in their firearms if, on balance, merging with Canada would seem preferable to remaining in a Republican-dominated - read "far right" - United State (which it would be if Cali exited) may not be as settled as you might think. Again, we are imagining an apocalypse here. California has always been the place of choice for radicals with whacky ideas but there's no chance it will secede. It's armaments industry alone account for a huge chunk of it's wealth. The demographic make up is presently at 51 percent non white ethnicities of all groups. This is a group that would not favour separation from the rest of America. As for whites, a very sizeable amount who are politically liberal, well educated, reasonably affluent or wealthy neither would they be stupid enough to vote for secession. Governor Brown may differ from Trump on just about everything but he's certainly no separatist. California will just grit it's teeth knowing that someday all this will pass. I cant imagine our New England brothers having the slightest inclination to join Canada. The sense of history, of the revolution, the Founding Fathers and the Constitution is far too strongly ingrained in them. I couldn't see them exchanging that for a Parliamentary system of government, the loss of rights under the Constitution especially that sacred Second Amendment. There's nothing wrong with Canada and it's system of government of course but it's just too different for millions of people to adapt to. |
Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by ian-mstm
(Post 12274916)
Both good points. It's interesting how different sides in an argument (or war) view things. In the US at the end of the Revolutionary War, those who supported the King were ultimately forced to either align with the new victors or were forced to leave the US. Many of those who would not align fled north to (what is now) Canada - and became known as United Empire Loyalists. To this day in Canada, it is a matter of great pride and distinction to have had an ancestor who was a United Empire Loyalist... even though, in the US, those same people were called traitors!
Ian |
Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by FlaviusAetius
(Post 12275058)
That might deter California too. Forget Cali's share of the national debt, imagine just the problem of suddenly having to pay for continuation of Social Security and Medicare benefits for millions of Californians. They're in enough trouble with their state employees' pension and health funds as it is ($366 billion unfunded liability as of 2014). Nevertheless, politics frequently *trumps* reality in this country, so anything is possible.
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Re: How long until the apocalypse?
"How long before the apocalypse?"
Correction: That should read: How long since the apocalypse? |
Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Looking at how much my two investment accounts with J P Morgan Chase have increased in value since Trump was elected, he can keep on doing whatever it is he is doing.
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Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by dc koop
(Post 12275086)
I think that the secession of any State in the Union would have to meet with the approval of 38 other States to pass. Clearly that's not a possibilty
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Re: How long until the apocalypse?
There should be an option that says "Can't come soon enough"
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Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by FlaviusAetius
(Post 12275280)
The 38 state thing is the number required to amend the Constitution in a constitutional convention (3/4ths of the states). If a constitutional convention, were called to provide for secession, it would probably be in the context of the United States facing imminent break-up and the need would be for an orderly process for dissolution. An orderly apocalypse?:lol:
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Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by dc koop
(Post 12275342)
Well it's pretty obvious that secession will never be in the cards. Who wants to go to all the trouble of having checkpoints, passport control, tariff and trade agreements to negotiate, A gigantic headache that would make no sense. California is intertwined with the rest of the union. Many wrote off the United Sates as a failure during the civil war. The Vietnam war tore the country apart. It will take more than a tweet addict with fake hair dyed platinum blond and the bullshit of a used car salesman to bring this country to the point of a break up
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Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by FlaviusAetius
(Post 12274809)
Depends on how you define apocalypse. If the apocalypse were to involve the United States breaking up into two or three countries, with the Blue States on one side and the Red States on the other, my guess is 5 - 10 years, given the unbridgeable polarization in this country. I see the west coast states seceding first, the Northeast states second, and Illinois third. Some of them might petition to join Canada, which would be a good move for Washington State and New England, if the Canadians would have them.
Talk about it being impossible because of the result of the War of Northern Aggression (as the Southerners like to style it) is just talk. No one is going to enter into a civil war to preserve today's "union." If Cali were to go now, a majority of Americans would probably wish them well in their new country. (Calexit?) Note: the next huge political battle will be whether Congress will admit Puerto Rico as the next State. PR's two senators would flip the Senate to the Democrats; so will the Republicans weather the "racism" charge and not commit political suicide? Considering the gulf in the culture/political polarization in the US even before Trump elected, I could easily see California or good portion of it deciding to secede in 5 to 15 years, and maybe also agreeing for joint-rule California and Mexico over a portion as well. |
Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by FlaviusAetius
(Post 12275615)
Let's hope you're right. As for Trump, "This too, shall pass."
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Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by Giantaxe
(Post 12275732)
"All things must pass"
Ian |
Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by Giantaxe
(Post 12275732)
"All things must pass"
of our brethren who are having such a difficult time living with our current President. "This Too Shall Pass" In the middle of the turbulence surrounding you These trying times are so hard to endure In the middle of what seems to be your darkest hour Hold fast your heart and be assured [CHORUS:] This too shall pass Like every night that's come before it He'll never give you more than you can bear This too shall pass So in this thought you'd be comforted For it's in His Hands This too shall pass |
Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by FlaviusAetius
(Post 12275058)
That might deter California too. Forget Cali's share of the national debt, imagine just the problem of suddenly having to pay for continuation of Social Security and Medicare benefits for millions of Californians. They're in enough trouble with their state employees' pension and health funds as it is ($366 billion unfunded liability as of 2014). Nevertheless, politics frequently *trumps* reality in this country, so anything is possible.
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Re: How long until the apocalypse?
Originally Posted by Beaverstate
(Post 12276101)
Exactly. For all the silicon valley businesses etc. California's financial obligations top all forseeable resources.Shut down the 32 military bases and the huge number of high tech supporting jobs....
Same goes for Oregon. Lumber, lumber and more lumber. How would their economy fare if the present California building boom suddenly went the way it did in 2008? As California goes so does Oregon. The fact that Oregon gas stations still have employees to pump gas indicates that the State has a long way to go in diversifying and creating meaningful jobs for it's workforce |
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