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California - departures and arrivals

California - departures and arrivals

Old May 24th 2022, 3:33 am
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

I don't think any reliable census has ever had SF as majority Asian?
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Old May 24th 2022, 5:01 am
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

Originally Posted by SFNative View Post
I don't think any reliable census has ever had SF as majority Asian?
I believe you are correct - I was remembering the demographics incorrectly. According to this very detailed site - https://www.janepoppelreiterrealesta...-demographics/ - second chart - we had 42% white, 34% Asian as of 2014, and this page - https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects...an-population/ - suggests that has changed to being 37% White, 34% Asian by 2020. So it's still very slightly majority white - by 3%.

I think what I was remembering was that whites are less than 50% (that is - San Francisco is majority non-white), which is pretty unsual for US cities.

Edit to add - Santa Clara County in the Bay Area (the center of 'Silicon Valley') is now majority Asian - https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/a...ensus-reports/ - "In Santa Clara County, people who identify as Asian are now the largest racial group or ethnic group for the first time, representing 38.9% of the county’s 2020 population of 1,936,239, according to census numbers released today." - https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/a...ensus-reports/ (whites represent 28.7%).


Last edited by Steerpike; May 24th 2022 at 5:40 am.
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Old May 24th 2022, 5:10 am
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

Originally Posted by Hiro11 View Post
Housing prices in California are going up because demand exceeds supply.

The population of California is going down.

A thought: both of these things can be true at the same time.
Prop 13 may be one of the factors here- I've seen some houses bought years ago kept empty or used only occasionally.
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Old May 24th 2022, 5:22 am
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

Originally Posted by robin1234 View Post
Yeah exactly. The US used to be like Germany, or Central Europe in general - a high proportion of people lived in cramped conditions in city apartment buildings. In England, the development of expansive suburbs, garden cities etc., started in the late nineteenth century and was very well developed by the 1930s. In the USA, the same thing didn’t really get going till after WWII. I know when I first visited America, early 1970s, I was amazed what cramped, tiny apartments all my wife’s family lived in - and thought was completely normal. (I was a child of the pre-war, expansive London suburbs.) I think the US, including California, has to some extent caught up with the UK in this regard. This is what we see in the inexorable residential development all over the US.
This may be a 'west coast' thing, but my observation is that houses are much bigger in the US than UK. My brother raised a family of 4 (2 parents, 2 kids) in a house that was only 1,000 sq ft., and that was a very typical post-war 'housing estate' type of place - detached home with 4 bedrooms upstairs (only 1 bathroom for everyone upstairs, no 'en-suite', tiny toilet downstairs 'under the stairs', "4th bedroom" only big enough for a desk).

My first rental in the US (in SF) was a cavernous 1,500 sq ft 2 bed, 2 bath apartment built in 1932. My first condo (also in San Francisco) was a spacious 1,400 sq ft place with only 2 bedrooms, built in 1925.

I was so surprised by this contrast, when I was back there in 2019 my brother and I measured the rooms to double-check, as it seemed so wrong!
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Old May 24th 2022, 1:00 pm
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

Originally Posted by Steerpike View Post
This may be a 'west coast' thing, but my observation is that houses are much bigger in the US than UK. My brother raised a family of 4 (2 parents, 2 kids) in a house that was only 1,000 sq ft., and that was a very typical post-war 'housing estate' type of place - detached home with 4 bedrooms upstairs (only 1 bathroom for everyone upstairs, no 'en-suite', tiny toilet downstairs 'under the stairs', "4th bedroom" only big enough for a desk).

My first rental in the US (in SF) was a cavernous 1,500 sq ft 2 bed, 2 bath apartment built in 1932. My first condo (also in San Francisco) was a spacious 1,400 sq ft place with only 2 bedrooms, built in 1925.

I was so surprised by this contrast, when I was back there in 2019 my brother and I measured the rooms to double-check, as it seemed so wrong!
My observation agrees with yours, east coast too. I just think that this move from cramped working-class homes to more expansive happened fifty or more years later in the USA than it did in the UK. Look at the extensive pre-war suburbs in any English town or city. Semi-detached they may be, probably only one bathroom, but they are big. At that time, in America the urban population was largely in apartments. (Like in Germany and Central Europe.)

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Old May 28th 2022, 12:04 am
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

Originally Posted by Steerpike View Post
So the state's growth has been sustained by international immigration, which makes sense - I am one of them.

The reason I enjoy living in the Bay Area is precisely because it is not full of typical 'Americans'. San Francisco has been majority Asian for as long as I can remember, which suits me fine - we have some of the very best Asian food (Thai, Chinese, Vietnamese, Japanese, etc) and my girlfriend is also an Asian immigrant, and she feels very comfortable here.

So it's true that people are leaving the state, but the perception that they are jumping from a sinking ship is rather odd; they simply can't afford to stay. The skyrocketing real-estate prices would not be happening if the state were 'undesirable'.
As a San Francisco resident, this is my perception as well. Amazingly the city lost 6.3% of its population in the first year of the pandemic, the biggest decline of US cities. That figure was caused not only by people moving out but also the almost complete cessation of new immigrants (to high tech jobs, for example). It's subjective, but there are lots of indications that the city's population has recovered most of its population since then. Rents, for example, are approaching their pre-pandemic level.

Personally, I'm quite happy to see an end of the crazy growth there's been in the 30+ years I've been in California. The US West is in a historic drought and that causes two huge problems. Firstly, supplying water to 40m people. Secondly, the wildfire situation which is only going to get worse. I just spent a week hiking in the Sierra Nevada. Quite wonderful, but there are so many burn areas that I doubt will recover and so many dead or dying trees that are fuel for further catastrophic fires. This is actually the one thing that would make me leave the American West. Well, aside from things like crazy gun violence and access to healthcare... but those things make me question whether the US is where I want to live in general and are for a different thread anyway...
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Old May 28th 2022, 6:15 pm
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

Originally Posted by Steerpike View Post
There's a general perception out there that people are leaving California in droves. Based on everything I'm seeing (as a resident) in terms of real-estate sales and housing starts, it seems inconceivable that there is a net loss of people.

I just read this post - Moving from UK to LA - should we go for it? in which it was said: "...Why are twice as many native born Californians fleeing the place as incoming replacement population? When my cousin moved from California to Florida last year, She had to fly to Dallas Texas to rent a moving truck and drive it to Southern California. There are almost none available to rent."

Maybe 'native born' Californians are leaving, but 'others' are certainly coming in to replace them, and whoever they are, they have money - lots of money. As a resident of the Bay Area, I can tell you that house prices are soaring, and apartment/condo buildings are being constructed at an amazing rate; it seems like every former gas station or parking lot is now a medium-rise building selling million-dollar units...
There is some trust to the fact that California is very expensive (in relative terms to other parts of the country). A lot of folks are moving out to live in cheaper areas - I guess that's the free market for you.
On the flip side, a lot of people are also simply chasing in and capitalizing on their amazing Californian investment (house), I've watched a few neighbors put their houses on the market with a "retirement" number on it. Eighteen months ago I would have scoffed a little and rolled my eyes. None of these houses dropped in price and the numbers they are getting are absolutely astronomical. These folks are simply moving to cheaper area, they will quit their jobs, buy a place and enjoy a long retirement on a mountain of California cash.
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Old May 28th 2022, 10:32 pm
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

Originally Posted by Steerpike View Post
I believe you are correct - I was remembering the demographics incorrectly. According to this very detailed site - https://www.janepoppelreiterrealesta...-demographics/ - second chart - we had 42% white, 34% Asian as of 2014, and this page - https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects...an-population/ - suggests that has changed to being 37% White, 34% Asian by 2020. So it's still very slightly majority white - by 3%.

I think what I was remembering was that whites are less than 50% (that is - San Francisco is majority non-white), which is pretty unsual for US cities.

Edit to add - Santa Clara County in the Bay Area (the center of 'Silicon Valley') is now majority Asian - https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/a...ensus-reports/ - "In Santa Clara County, people who identify as Asian are now the largest racial group or ethnic group for the first time, representing 38.9% of the county’s 2020 population of 1,936,239, according to census numbers released today." - https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/a...ensus-reports/ (whites represent 28.7%).
As far as San Francisco, my impression was any census count very much underestimates the number of Asians in the city as the portion who are illegals I think undercounted/underestimated, as the support network for illegal Chinese in the city quite extensive.
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Old May 28th 2022, 10:58 pm
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

Originally Posted by morpeth View Post
As far as San Francisco, my impression was any census count very much underestimates the number of Asians in the city as the portion who are illegals I think undercounted/underestimated, as the support network for illegal Chinese in the city quite extensive.
Purportedly a much larger undercount is of Hispanics.
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Old May 29th 2022, 7:00 am
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Default Re: California - departures and arrivals

Originally Posted by Giantaxe View Post
Purportedly a much larger undercount is of Hispanics.
That very may well be for the Bay Area as a whole, I was just referring to San Francisco ,just from personal experience.
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