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-   -   2016 Election (https://britishexpats.com/forum/trailer-park-96/2016-election-855107/)

RoadWarriorFromLP Feb 25th 2016 4:47 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 11879908)
If there is a brokered convention, and Rubio is 'anointed', then that will have a few interesting consequences. 1) it will really piss off a lot of Republicans, and pretty much guarantee a democratic victory (no complaints here); 2) it may push Trump into a 3rd party run, which again will pretty much guarantee a democratic victory.

The GOP will try to use the Scalia replacement to get social conservatives to show up to the polls (which is one reason why they've turned it into an election issue and created a mini-constitutional crisis.) That's a gambit that just might work.

Steerpike Feb 25th 2016 4:49 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 11879879)
Trump again asserted, strongly, that Planned Parenthood has helped 'millions and millions of women ... in situations such as Cervical Cancer ...'.

and he said, we must retain the 'pre-existing conditions' element of Obamacare.

...

And he refuses to blindly support Israel. And he said he wouldn't let people die on the streets (pay for them with government funds). He really is sounding like a liberal :) (I'm watching my recording now .... )

RoadWarriorFromLP Feb 25th 2016 4:50 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by username.exe (Post 11879906)
Surely at this stage he will just run anyway as an independent?

A guy with an ego like his - having won several primaries by landslide, and having say on top of the polls consistently for nine months - is not going to sit in the sidelines whilst the politicians try and fix it their way?

And if he did run it would be a disaster for the GOP. Will they not be worrying about that at the convention?

If he runs as an independent, then it is guaranteed that he will lose. That would be an even greater blow to his ego. These third-party candidates end up as footnotes in the history books, not as winners.

RoadWarriorFromLP Feb 25th 2016 4:57 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by zargof (Post 11873559)
10%? I'm curious where you came up with that figure. I suspect you pulled it out of your arse.

Gallup finds that about 1/4th of the country self-identifies as "liberal" when given a three-choice universe of liberal/moderate/conservative. So I'm being kind when I guesstimate that about 4 out of 10 of those self-described liberals are progressives-pining-away-for-socialism.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/180452/li...ervatives.aspx

Even the Tea Party has more devotees than that, and I sure as hell don't want that minority thinking that it gets to impose its ways on everyone else.

Beaverstate Feb 25th 2016 9:35 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by RoadWarriorFromLP (Post 11879914)
If he runs as an independent, then it is guaranteed that he will lose. That would be an even greater blow to his ego. These third-party candidates end up as footnotes in the history books, not as winners.

Trump nearly has the Republican primaries sewn up, for better or worse.
Bloomberg is the Independent who will emerge, and quite possibly win.
Hard to beat a fiscal conservative (see NYC) and a social moderate/liberal again see NYC. That is a potent combo for the large number of independents.

Leslie Feb 26th 2016 12:01 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 11879879)
Trump again asserted, strongly, that Planned Parenthood has helped 'millions and millions of women ... in situations such as Cervical Cancer ...'.

and he said, we must retain the 'pre-existing conditions' element of Obamacare.

So as much as I don't like him, I'm still sadly going to say he's the best one up there.

As Leslie said, he may not be the worst guy in the world - he'll bring in a bunch of advisers and be pragmatic, which is a whole lot better than Ted Cruz, who is an idealogical nightmare.

I only caught bits of it; I'm going to watch a recording shortly.

And where is Leslie? She's using live posting during these debates!

:wave: I was otherwise engaged, and not in the fun way.

I'm seeing bits of the debate this morning and it looks like a blood bath. Based on what some of the posters here are saying, Trump is pivoting to the center on some issues. Not a surprising move now that he's pretty much won this primary. I want to remind everybody that he got this far by scapegoating Mexicans, Muslims, African Americans, the Chinese, the Vietnamese, et al. He has stoked the worst aspect of the American psyche - racism. He's pretty much been endorsed by the KKK and Aryan Brotherhood. IMO he does not get a walk now just because he won't 'let people die in the streets'. He's a sick and dangerous malignancy and needs to be amputated from the American public narrative.

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 26th 2016 12:20 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by McZaki (Post 11879770)
As long as the clown doesn't win, any other candidate would do! Americans are better off with the democrats, lesser of two evils IMHO

Hillary is standing as a Democrat.

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 26th 2016 1:08 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Leslie (Post 11880140)
:wave: I was otherwise engaged, and not in the fun way.

:huh:

Leslie Feb 26th 2016 1:11 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 11880199)
:huh:

:blink:

zargof Feb 26th 2016 1:11 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by RoadWarriorFromLP (Post 11879915)
Gallup finds that about 1/4th of the country self-identifies as "liberal" when given a three-choice universe of liberal/moderate/conservative. So I'm being kind when I guesstimate that about 4 out of 10 of those self-described liberals are progressives-pining-away-for-socialism.

U.S. Liberals at Record 24%, but Still Trail Conservatives

Even the Tea Party has more devotees than that, and I sure as hell don't want that minority thinking that it gets to impose its ways on everyone else.

So as usual you ignore the part where I showed that what Sanders is proposing is actually quite popular when you actually ask people, and post a non-sequitur about liberals.

Giantaxe Feb 26th 2016 2:48 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Steerpike (Post 11879875)
So the answer is, if it came down to Trump/Clinton, she would vote for Trump, or not at all, since she would 'never ever vote for Clinton'. That is pretty scary.

And like Boiler she can't elucidate why.

scrubbedexpat099 Feb 26th 2016 3:06 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 11880337)
And like Boiler she can't elucidate why.

Covered man many times, now why somebody would vote for Hillary is a mystery. Outside of the medical sphere.

RoadWarriorFromLP Feb 26th 2016 3:12 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by zargof (Post 11880206)
So as usual you ignore the part where I showed that what Sanders is proposing is actually quite popular when you actually ask people, and post a non-sequitur about liberals.

When you ask Americans about whether they like features of the ACA, then they're pretty positive about it. But when you ask those same Americans how they feel about Obamacare, they start shaking their heads.

If Sanders won the nomination, he would be targeted as a pinko commie and he and his ideas would become less popular quickly. Sanders has largely been untouched by attack ads and aggressive campaigning to date, but that honeymoon would end if he became the nominee. Clinton has been in the national spotlight and attacked for decades, so you can't compare the two directly.

RoadWarriorFromLP Feb 26th 2016 3:14 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Beaverstate (Post 11880038)
Trump nearly has the Republican primaries sewn up, for better or worse.
Bloomberg is the Independent who will emerge, and quite possibly win.
Hard to beat a fiscal conservative (see NYC) and a social moderate/liberal again see NYC. That is a potent combo for the large number of independents.

If nobody has a majority of delegates going into the convention, then it will be brokered. It is not determined by a popular vote and a plurality is not enough.

Early state results are often not a good indicator of the final outcome. We'll have to see.

Giantaxe Feb 26th 2016 4:01 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 11880352)
Covered man many times, now why somebody would vote for Hillary is a mystery. Outside of the medical sphere.

Which posts do you and Jerseygirl explain your "anyone but Clinton" stance? In fact, Steerpike specifically asked you for your reasoning a few days ago and was met with silence...


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