UK v EU

Old Jan 21st 2021, 11:03 pm
  #1  
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Default UK v EU

Which do we think will last longest?

I've absolutely no wish for either to fail but we have to face up to the fact that one or the other (or both) will and one of them is going to go first.

I would expect the UK to fail first - only because that event has an exact definition - Scotland or Northern Ireland leaving.

The EU will not last forever - nothing does - but it could lose a fair few countries before it being declared dead and I can't see that happening in a hurry.

Any thoughts?



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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 6:22 am
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Default Re: UK v EU

Eu will add more countries and not fail

The welsh are hiring diggers and back hoes to lengthen, widen and deepen Offas dyke. If not for foreigners from england living there, they may have voted out as well

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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 6:36 am
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Which do we think will last longest?

I've absolutely no wish for either to fail but we have to face up to the fact that one or the other (or both) will and one of them is going to go first.

I would expect the UK to fail first - only because that event has an exact definition - Scotland or Northern Ireland leaving.

The EU will not last forever - nothing does - but it could lose a fair few countries before it being declared dead and I can't see that happening in a hurry.

Any thoughts?
On this site you will find predominantly E.U. supporters. Knocking the U.K. is almost a sport here and people haven't stopped moaning since the U.K. left so your thread starter is a waste of time, I, at least, know what the majority of replies will be.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 7:41 am
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by mikemike View Post
Eu will add more countries and not fail

The welsh are hiring diggers and back hoes to lengthen, widen and deepen Offas dyke. If not for foreigners from england living there, they may have voted out as well
I would happily contribute to the cost of the diggers plus also likewise fort the scots.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 8:17 am
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by Fredbargate View Post
I would happily contribute to the cost of the diggers plus also likewise fort the scots.
Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
On this site you will find predominantly E.U. supporters. Knocking the U.K. is almost a sport here and people haven't stopped moaning since the U.K. left so your thread starter is a waste of time, I, at least, know what the majority of replies will be.
Well Fred's up for it so you could be right.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 8:23 am
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
On this site you will find predominantly E.U. supporters. Knocking the U.K. is almost a sport here and people haven't stopped moaning since the U.K. left so your thread starter is a waste of time, I, at least, know what the majority of replies will be.
I agree, there are few here willing to post their own thoughts, simply content to criticise others, but let's cast them to one side and make an effort to be constructive,
It's becoming clear that the EU will use a procedural strategy to demonstrate that leaving the EU will not be to the benefit of any nation considering a break with the union.
This was predicted at the outset and many, who've done well from EU membership, have argued and continue to argue that this was sufficient reason to have rejected Brexit in the first place.
The pain felt will lead to oppressive headlines more and more as covid becomes less of an emergency.
This will inevitably result in anti-EU propaganda promoted on social media and publications.
There will be a great many who'll support this view and others who'll feel aggrieved, in fact you don't need to move far from this site to experience what will become the norm in the UK.
The EU has little option to behave as it does. Like it or not, opposition to monolithic anti democratic structures attracts opposition from within and it's in the nature of such structures to retrench and shoot messengers.
Episodes like we witness at the moment are difficult to explain to those who view red tape as officiousness that can be cut or not depending on attitudes and these can become entrenched with reactions demanded from activists on both sides.
The EU overplayed it's hand with May and they still haven't learned the lesson that overplaying can be counter-productive.
The UK will be forced to become much less reliant on the EU in the medium term as a result. It'll be forced to turn away from europe and become much more multi national.
I fully expect the EU to apply every dotted I and crossed T written in black letter law to it's relations with the UK because their politicians won't be able to stop themselves, it's simply what politicians do.. it's good for votes.
So in answer to the thread, I expect the EU to demand it's pound of flesh, again and again, but nations are resilient and I expect the UK to come to terms with it in the medium term and prosper... and the EU? I expect it to become less and less manageable as the poor nations become poorer and the rich nations become resentful and dominant.

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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 8:58 am
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Any thoughts?
The United Kingdom is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland - if Northern Ireland leaves, what is left is technically no longer the United Kingdom, as the "united" bit refers to the uniting of Great Britain and Ireland. It would be a bit like all the countries of the EU except France deciding to leave, then France claiming still to be the European Union.

However, even if NI, Scotland, Wales, Cornwall and South Yorkshire were all to secede, I expect the UK would still call itself the UK, just as it still awards people orders of an empire that no longer exists.

The United Kingdom has only existed since 1801, and very nearly ceased to exist in 1921. This idea of the United Kingdom being different to other European countries in having "1000s of years history, citizens, culture" is nonsense. Like the other European countries, the UK is subject to shifts in lines on the map.

The UK has not one, but two question marks hanging over it: whether it will remain united, and whether it will remain a kingdom. At the moment, support for the monarchy is strong, but it only takes one monarch who is either particularly unpopular, or themselves not committed to the monarchy - imagine the situation had Harry been first in line, not William. Once the monarchy has been abolished, there will be no serious support for its re-institution, any more than we would be clamouring for coal once we've made the shift to renewable energy, however romantic mining might be.

On the EU side, I would not be particularly surprised if, not in the near future but perhaps in two or three decades, the Visegrad states were to secede, form their own confederacy (a kind of mini-Eastern EU), then enter a close relationship with the EU similar to Switzerland's. The Scandinavian states might do the same, and then be joined by Norway. But ultimately, the EU stands and falls with the Franco-German axis, and that is so strong that I don't see it falling in the lifetime of anyone here.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 9:06 am
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by dave_j View Post
I agree, there are few here willing to post their own thoughts, simply content to criticise others, but let's cast them to one side and make an effort to be constructive,
It's becoming clear that the EU will use a procedural strategy to demonstrate that leaving the EU will not be to the benefit of any nation considering a break with the union.
This was predicted at the outset and many, who've done well from EU membership, have argued and continue to argue that this was sufficient reason to have rejected Brexit in the first place.
The pain felt will lead to oppressive headlines more and more as covid becomes less of an emergency.
This will inevitably result in anti-EU propaganda promoted on social media and publications.
There will be a great many who'll support this view and others who'll feel aggrieved, in fact you don't need to move far from this site to experience what will become the norm in the UK.
The EU has little option to behave as it does. Like it or not, opposition to monolithic anti democratic structures attracts opposition from within and it's in the nature of such structures to retrench and shoot messengers.
Episodes like we witness at the moment are difficult to explain to those who view red tape as officiousness that can be cut or not depending on attitudes and these can become entrenched with reactions demanded from activists on both sides.
The EU overplayed it's hand with May and they still haven't learned the lesson that overplaying can be counter-productive.
The UK will be forced to become much less reliant on the EU in the medium term as a result. It'll be forced to turn away from europe and become much more multi national.
I fully expect the EU to apply every dotted I and crossed T written in black letter law to it's relations with the UK because their politicians won't be able to stop themselves, it's simply what politicians do.. it's good for votes.
So in answer to the thread, I expect the EU to demand it's pound of flesh, again and again, but nations are resilient and I expect the UK to come to terms with it in the medium term and prosper... and the EU? I expect it to become less and less manageable as the poor nations become poorer and the rich nations become resentful and dominant.
Overall I tend to agree with your view. I feel sure though that the E.U. and the U.K. will find common ground in the coming years. Despite what some people think we do still need to trade with each other. Money, I feel, is always the bottom line and when German cars are not selling or wine isn't being bought by the van full then eventually the politicians will be forced to find common ground. At the moment Brexit is a little like a a container that has had a huge amount water thrown into it and needs to settle.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 9:20 am
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by Watchpost View Post
The United Kingdom is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland - if Northern Ireland leaves, what is left is technically no longer the United Kingdom, as the "united" bit refers to the uniting of Great Britain and Ireland. It would be a bit like all the countries of the EU except France deciding to leave, then France claiming still to be the European Union.

However, even if NI, Scotland, Wales, Cornwall and South Yorkshire were all to secede, I expect the UK would still call itself the UK, just as it still awards people orders of an empire that no longer exists.

The United Kingdom has only existed since 1801, and very nearly ceased to exist in 1921. This idea of the United Kingdom being different to other European countries in having "1000s of years history, citizens, culture" is nonsense. Like the other European countries, the UK is subject to shifts in lines on the map.

The UK has not one, but two question marks hanging over it: whether it will remain united, and whether it will remain a kingdom. At the moment, support for the monarchy is strong, but it only takes one monarch who is either particularly unpopular, or themselves not committed to the monarchy - imagine the situation had Harry been first in line, not William. Once the monarchy has been abolished, there will be no serious support for its re-institution, any more than we would be clamouring for coal once we've made the shift to renewable energy, however romantic mining might be.

On the EU side, I would not be particularly surprised if, not in the near future but perhaps in two or three decades, the Visegrad states were to secede, form their own confederacy (a kind of mini-Eastern EU), then enter a close relationship with the EU similar to Switzerland's. The Scandinavian states might do the same, and then be joined by Norway. But ultimately, the EU stands and falls with the Franco-German axis, and that is so strong that I don't see it falling in the lifetime of anyone here.
Lots of 'if'' in your post. I don't know of any movement to form one Ireland, apart from a few crazies of course. You are right that should N.I. leave the union then technically the mainland should revert to Great Britain. Should Scotland leave the Union then I suppose we still have a Great Britain as we have Wales, should they also leave then presumably we would simply be Britain. But as I said, so many 'ifs' that what you outlined is extremely unlikely. All of your scenarios are, of course, possible but are they likely; No I don't think so.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 2:46 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
I don't know of any movement to form one Ireland, apart from a few crazies of course.
Maybe not a substantial formal movement quite yet but there's certainly a lot of popular support for the notion both sides of the border. Much stronger in the south but not far shy of half in the north, which is more than actively support remaining separate.

I would expect that to grow as the effects of Brexit on NI begin to be felt and the Covid interlude will probably also add a bit. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if there are strong calls for a referendum within the decade, especially if the Tories hold sway again at the next UK election.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 2:52 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by dave_j View Post
I agree, there are few here willing to post their own thoughts, simply content to criticise others, but let's cast them to one side and make an effort to be constructive,
It's becoming clear that the EU will use a procedural strategy to demonstrate that leaving the EU will not be to the benefit of any nation considering a break with the union.
This was predicted at the outset and many, who've done well from EU membership, have argued and continue to argue that this was sufficient reason to have rejected Brexit in the first place.
The pain felt will lead to oppressive headlines more and more as covid becomes less of an emergency.
This will inevitably result in anti-EU propaganda promoted on social media and publications.
There will be a great many who'll support this view and others who'll feel aggrieved, in fact you don't need to move far from this site to experience what will become the norm in the UK.
The EU has little option to behave as it does. Like it or not, opposition to monolithic anti democratic structures attracts opposition from within and it's in the nature of such structures to retrench and shoot messengers.
Episodes like we witness at the moment are difficult to explain to those who view red tape as officiousness that can be cut or not depending on attitudes and these can become entrenched with reactions demanded from activists on both sides.
The EU overplayed it's hand with May and they still haven't learned the lesson that overplaying can be counter-productive.
The UK will be forced to become much less reliant on the EU in the medium term as a result. It'll be forced to turn away from europe and become much more multi national.
I fully expect the EU to apply every dotted I and crossed T written in black letter law to it's relations with the UK because their politicians won't be able to stop themselves, it's simply what politicians do.. it's good for votes.
So in answer to the thread, I expect the EU to demand it's pound of flesh, again and again, but nations are resilient and I expect the UK to come to terms with it in the medium term and prosper... and the EU? I expect it to become less and less manageable as the poor nations become poorer and the rich nations become resentful and dominant.
Absolutely brilliant analysis! Well done!
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 2:55 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
On this site you will find predominantly E.U. supporters. Knocking the U.K. is almost a sport here and people haven't stopped moaning since the U.K. left so your thread starter is a waste of time, I, at least, know what the majority of replies will be.
Spot on! Any counter comment will be met with hostility and you will be called a troll or whatever.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 3:17 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Which do we think will last longest?

I've absolutely no wish for either to fail but we have to face up to the fact that one or the other (or both) will and one of them is going to go first.

I would expect the UK to fail first - only because that event has an exact definition - Scotland or Northern Ireland leaving.

The EU will not last forever - nothing does - but it could lose a fair few countries before it being declared dead and I can't see that happening in a hurry.

Any thoughts?
There would have to be a lot more countries leaving the EU before it ceases to exist as an entity than would be the case for the UK. One would still be a 24-country European Union after losing 3 member countries, the other would merely be England.

That's simply mathematics.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 3:35 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Which do we think will last longest?

I've absolutely no wish for either to fail but we have to face up to the fact that one or the other (or both) will and one of them is going to go first.

I would expect the UK to fail first - only because that event has an exact definition - Scotland or Northern Ireland leaving.

The EU will not last forever - nothing does - but it could lose a fair few countries before it being declared dead and I can't see that happening in a hurry.

Any thoughts?
I think "failure" is a strong term, and is not one I'd use. Both will change and evolve over time as nations/states do. I can sadly see a loosening of the ties that bind the four home nations in the UK without some kind of major shift to bring us back together. I can foresee NI thowing in its lot with Dublin within the next ten years to be honest, and Scotland to leave in that time frame. As a northern english person I feel strongly that the current Westminster government does not understand the lives of people where I live at all and disregards us totally when making decisions and I imagine that feeling magnified tenfold for the Scots and NornIrish.

On the plus side, I think people are turning away from centralism towards more localism, so maybe as a positive we could get more Regional government which would suit Yorkshire, Cornwall etc. Covid has reminded us all how powerful local communities can be when we act together, I'd like to see that continue.

As for the EU, I concur with Watchpost - as long as France and Germany are at the core of the EU, it will continue. The horror of WW2 is still deep in their memories and there is a strong commitment towards "never again".
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 3:42 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by la mancha View Post
Spot on! Any counter comment will be met with hostility and you will be called a troll or whatever.
Replace "hostility" with "facts and corrections" and you're part way there. Don't behave as if the facts are irrelevant and it won't look like trolling.

Job done.
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