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Tories in chaos

Tories in chaos

Old Jun 17th 2019, 6:56 am
  #2296  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
That is interesting, but I'm not at all sure that the UK electorate is ready for it in the current tribal climate and the confrontational system that is Westminster. Whoever was randomly selected to be in such an assembly would surely be drawn into the endless tribal arguments in the sense that whoever came out on the "losing" end of the conclusion would claim that it was anti-democratic and non-representative, and with the non-collaborative approach of Westminster and a non-binding bit of advice from the assembly I'm not sure how that would break the deadlock. Not because the system would be bad but because British government is not like the Irish government - more's the pity, apparently. Still, I suppose one has to start somewhere.
Yes but one has to consider the fact that it's really very early days yet as far as this process goes, so plenty of time for any number of developments.

Look, for example, at the comparatively far simpler business of Heathrow Airport expansion and how long that's been mooted, and multiply that up by the appropriate factor to get a rough idea of where we might be looking in terms of an end date.

Plus the Queen's known to be in favour as she very clearly stated in her Christmas message and in an address to Sandringham WI.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 8:13 am
  #2297  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
He also has some lunatic idea about selecting a panel from the public by lottery to advise the government on policy.
When you consider that in the UK, members of the public chosen at random are tasked with determining among other things whether someone should be locked up for decades for murder, and when you consider that the prime minister is advised once a week by an individual whose principal qualification is that she is descended from a 8th-century German prince, the idea of a panel of advisers selected at random doesn't sound all that lunatic.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 10:03 am
  #2298  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Yes, it is impressive. When did the current construction of system of representation in the Irish parliament come in?
The basic system was enacted on independence, but the constitution was ratified in 1937 and has evolved from there. The current system is based on the British bi-cameral parliament, but with "improvements" -
- The constitution is the lifeblood of the Republic - it limits the power of government and can only be amended by means of an act that passes both houses of parliament and is then ratified by referendum (so the referendum is a central tenet of the Irish system, not and "add-on")
- The President replaces the crown as a largely ceremonial figurehead without direct power but with ultimate control over parliament and is voted into office by public plebiscite every seven years from a shortlist of candidates. The President can represent no party (although they may have represented one and/or have been proposed by one). No President can serve more than 2 terms of office (14 years);
- The lower house (Dáil Éireann) representatives (TDs ) are directly elected by plebiscite using PR-STV, not FPTP, and the Dáil can last no longer than 5 years. The leader of the largest party is generally invited to become An Taoiseach (leader) - effectively PM, as long as he retains the confidence of the Dáil; All acts are proposed and debated in the Dáil, in a similar way to Westminster.
- The upper house (Seanad Éireann) has a lifespan tied to the Dáil and has 60 senators who are not directly elected by public plebiscite, but chosen by various methods. 11 are nominated by the president, 6 are elected by graduates of the University of Dublin and the National University and the remaining 43 represent "specialities" like agriculture, industry, labour, culture and administration and are elected from a panel of candidates by TDs, outgoing senators and members of regional councils. Like the House of Lords, the Senate is a check on the power of the Dáil, but can only delay bills, not instigate them or reject them.

So, that's the background, a situation similar to the UK but with key differences - particularly in that the referendum is an instructive mechanism for constitutional change. However, referendums on social issues proved to be very divisive (who'd have guessed!) and were open to political interference - so after a bitter divorce referendum in 1995, changes were made to limit the influence of political blocs. Firstly, it was decided that each future referendum would be overseen by an independent commission, headed by a high-court judge - so the government would be "hands off". Secondly, a number of randomly populated deliberative citizen assemblies, rather than elected politicians, would hear evidence from experts on all sides and then vote to decide on those things to go forward to the general plebiscite, rather like a jury in the justice system. This is what was successfully used in both the recent referendums on abortion and same-sex marriage.

So, something like this is being proposed for the UK - but, as you'll see, the underlying evolution of politics in Ireland - having a constitution, the referendum as an instrument of government, restricting government control, etc., support the use of deliberative assemblies..... whereas in the UK the situation is very different. So it's hardly a "quick-fit" solution......

Last edited by macliam; Jun 17th 2019 at 10:07 am.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 10:48 am
  #2299  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Watchpost View Post
When you consider that in the UK, members of the public chosen at random are tasked with determining among other things whether someone should be locked up for decades for murder.
All a jury does is listen to the evidence and decide whether that evidence has proved beyong reasonable doubt that the person committed the crime.

The judge then decides whether the criminal gets jail or other, and for how long.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 11:03 am
  #2300  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
All a jury does is listen to the evidence and decide whether that evidence has proved beyong reasonable doubt that the person committed the crime.

The judge then decides whether the criminal gets jail or other, and for how long.
So, that's what the assemblies do - they listen to the submissions of various interested parties, then vote amongst themselves to decide on the direction of the referendum, the question to be asked, etc., etc. The Irish system is based on the judicial system - a judge to administrate the referendum and a jury to decide what should be asked of the plebiscite. At the end of the day, the plebiscite votes yes or no and that is the decision.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 11:05 am
  #2301  
 
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by stevenglish1 View Post
It's not lunatic at all. A random panel of real people with an actual platform to give their input is a great idea. It means the government have a constant reminder that its citizens are not only for the run up to elections. You'll never see it happen under a Tory government though, 1. They will never take a leaf out of an 'inferior' country's book, especially one they have history with, and 2. The tories as a rule aren't remotely interested in what their citizens think. This is exactly the sort of change that Westminster needs, they could convene in the House of Lords once they're all slung out.
Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
Yes but one has to consider the fact that it's really very early days yet as far as this process goes, so plenty of time for any number of developments.

Look, for example, at the comparatively far simpler business of Heathrow Airport expansion and how long that's been mooted, and multiply that up by the appropriate factor to get a rough idea of where we might be looking in terms of an end date.

Plus the Queen's known to be in favour as she very clearly stated in her Christmas message and in an address to Sandringham WI.
Originally Posted by macliam View Post
The basic system was enacted on independence, but the constitution was ratified in 1937 and has evolved from there. The current system is based on the British bi-cameral parliament, but with "improvements" -
- The constitution is the lifeblood of the Republic - it limits the power of government and can only be amended by means of an act that passes both houses of parliament and is then ratified by referendum (so the referendum is a central tenet of the Irish system, not and "add-on")
- The President replaces the crown as a largely ceremonial figurehead without direct power but with ultimate control over parliament and is voted into office by public plebiscite every seven years from a shortlist of candidates. The President can represent no party (although they may have represented one and/or have been proposed by one). No President can serve more than 2 terms of office (14 years);
- The lower house (Dáil Éireann) representatives (TDs ) are directly elected by plebiscite using PR-STV, not FPTP, and the Dáil can last no longer than 5 years. The leader of the largest party is generally invited to become An Taoiseach (leader) - effectively PM, as long as he retains the confidence of the Dáil; All acts are proposed and debated in the Dáil, in a similar way to Westminster.
- The upper house (Seanad Éireann) has a lifespan tied to the Dáil and has 60 senators who are not directly elected by public plebiscite, but chosen by various methods. 11 are nominated by the president, 6 are elected by graduates of the University of Dublin and the National University and the remaining 43 represent "specialities" like agriculture, industry, labour, culture and administration and are elected from a panel of candidates by TDs, outgoing senators and members of regional councils. Like the House of Lords, the Senate is a check on the power of the Dáil, but can only delay bills, not instigate them or reject them.

So, that's the background, a situation similar to the UK but with key differences - particularly in that the referendum is an instructive mechanism for constitutional change. However, referendums on social issues proved to be very divisive (who'd have guessed!) and were open to political interference - so after a bitter divorce referendum in 1995, changes were made to limit the influence of political blocs. Firstly, it was decided that each future referendum would be overseen by an independent commission, headed by a high-court judge - so the government would be "hands off". Secondly, a number of randomly populated deliberative citizen assemblies, rather than elected politicians, would hear evidence from experts on all sides and then vote to decide on those things to go forward to the general plebiscite, rather like a jury in the justice system. This is what was successfully used in both the recent referendums on abortion and same-sex marriage.

So, something like this is being proposed for the UK - but, as you'll see, the underlying evolution of politics in Ireland - having a constitution, the referendum as an instrument of government, restricting government control, etc., support the use of deliberative assemblies..... whereas in the UK the situation is very different. So it's hardly a "quick-fit" solution......
People panels make me nervous, perhaps precisely because of the current referendum debacle and the idea of adding in a third group (in additoin to Commons and Lords) without any other reforms makes me worry that it would be just another place for a bitter argument driven by propaganda, lies and the vested interests of a few (especially without our FPTP system). The country doesn't seem at all ready for a rational, sophisiticated debate and decision, as you alluded to Macliam, and Id oubt the "losers" of that decision are in a state to accept it. If the current mess could be taken as an indication of need for thorough reform, then yes, but ti would have to go along with all the other reforms, not just get dropped on top of the current mess with the expectation of a solution. But as I said, perhaps we have to start somewhere.

Last edited by Lion in Winter; Jun 17th 2019 at 11:16 am.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 11:55 am
  #2302  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
So, that's what the assemblies do - they listen to the submissions of various interested parties, then vote amongst themselves to decide on the direction of the referendum, the question to be asked, etc., etc. The Irish system is based on the judicial system - a judge to administrate the referendum and a jury to decide what should be asked of the plebiscite. At the end of the day, the plebiscite votes yes or no and that is the decision.
I agree with you, Mac. It was Watchpost I was pointing out to that a jury doesn't decide whether a murderer gets a 20yr sentence.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 12:02 pm
  #2303  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
He also has some lunatic idea about selecting a panel from the public by lottery to advise the government on policy.
Is this a permanent panel or one that regularly changes?

Originally Posted by stevenglish1 View Post
A random panel of real people with an actual platform to give their input is a great idea. It means the government have a constant reminder that its citizens are not only for the run up to elections.
If it's a permanent panel, then in time they may get 'mandated' to advance certain ideas or even seduced by those in power to sway the rest of the panel. In short, they may actually start behaving like....MPs.

If it's an ever changing panel, so everyone gets a chance, where's the continuity? Not to mention expertise.
It would be a bit like a football club with a particular recruitment/transfer policy and style of play through its teams but then they change the technical director to someone who favours something else and everything so far is disrupted before it gets a chance to gel and then because it doesn't immediately work there's a personnel change that results in another different direction and that, too, is changed because there's no immediate success and so on...
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 12:32 pm
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
Is this a permanent panel or one that regularly changes?

.
I didn't see any other details from Stewart, but I would imagine not permanent. I believe what he was proposing was an assembly specifcally to sort out the brexit issue.

What happens in Ireland overall makes a lot of sense, but I worry about trying to implement just the one piece when the rest of what we have is not like Ireland at all in so many ways. But again, not to say we shouldn't start -- just don't see how to do it for brexit right now but I could be wrong. I often am.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 1:11 pm
  #2305  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
I didn't see any other details from Stewart, but I would imagine not permanent. I believe what he was proposing was an assembly specifcally to sort out the brexit issue.
1. Who sets the criteria for panel membership? The Electoral Commission, Parliament, Similar to Jury selection? How many members?
2. What criteria excludes people from becoming members of the panel? Political party / union membership, subject expertise, Living in Remain/Leave supporting areas?
3. Will the panel have full access to all of the subject matter and experts, or do they base their decision only on the information in the public domain?
4. Will the panel's decision (and deliberations) be advisory or binding?


Jury selection isn't completely random. There are age criteria and geographical restrictions. I doubt many get a Jury summons outside of the area for which their registered on the Electoral Register. If there's a way to influence either the composition of the panel or it's decision, the Referendum showed that some are willing to do that.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 1:23 pm
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
1. Who sets the criteria for panel membership? The Electoral Commission, Parliament, Similar to Jury selection? How many members?
2. What criteria excludes people from becoming members of the panel? Political party / union membership, subject expertise, Living in Remain/Leave supporting areas?
3. Will the panel have full access to all of the subject matter and experts, or do they base their decision only on the information in the public domain?
4. Will the panel's decision (and deliberations) be advisory or binding?


Jury selection isn't completely random. There are age criteria and geographical restrictions. I doubt many get a Jury summons outside of the area for which their registered on the Electoral Register. If there's a way to influence either the composition of the panel or it's decision, the Referendum showed that some are willing to do that.

I have no idea. It's all completely hypothetical on Stewart's part at the moment.

Macliam probably knows how they handle these things in Ireland.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 1:27 pm
  #2307  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

New trading week and the £'s already taking yet another hammering.
Tories in chaos; £ under stress; No identifiable leadership; business, commerce, and investment confidence seeping away. Corporates' pulling future UK presence.

"Taking back control;" money; borders; laws; trading
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 1:33 pm
  #2308  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by stevenglish1 View Post
It's not lunatic at all. A random panel of real people with an actual platform to give their input is a great idea. It means the government have a constant reminder that its citizens are not only for the run up to elections. You'll never see it happen under a Tory government though, 1. They will never take a leaf out of an 'inferior' country's book, especially one they have history with, and 2. The tories as a rule aren't remotely interested in what their citizens think. This is exactly the sort of change that Westminster needs, they could convene in the House of Lords once they're all slung out.
It sounded pretty lunatic to me. He said something along the lines of "scientifically selected....". I think we can already guess how that will go. Good point about the House of Lords, these "scientifically selected 'random' people" would be no worse than them. Kenneth Clarke is on of Stuarts main cheerleaders so we can already guess how things will go it he becomes prime minister...
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 2:38 pm
  #2309  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
I agree with you, Mac. It was Watchpost I was pointing out to that a jury doesn't decide whether a murderer gets a 20yr sentence.
I appreciate that the jury returns a verdict and the judge sets the sentence, but doesn't murder carry a mandatory life sentence in the UK?

The judge sets the sentence, but only in consideration of the nature of the particular crime. Whether his expert view is that the jury made a mistake isn't (by my layman's understanding) a factor in sentencing.

At any rate, this is splitting hairs. My point is that life-changing decisions affecting individuals are made by people who may be technically wholly unqualified to make them.
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Old Jun 17th 2019, 3:07 pm
  #2310  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
Is this a permanent panel or one that regularly changes?



If it's a permanent panel, then in time they may get 'mandated' to advance certain ideas or even seduced by those in power to sway the rest of the panel. In short, they may actually start behaving like....MPs.

If it's an ever changing panel, so everyone gets a chance, where's the continuity? Not to mention expertise.
It would be a bit like a football club with a particular recruitment/transfer policy and style of play through its teams but then they change the technical director to someone who favours something else and everything so far is disrupted before it gets a chance to gel and then because it doesn't immediately work there's a personnel change that results in another different direction and that, too, is changed because there's no immediate success and so on...
I don't know what would be suggested for the UK - as I pointed out earlier, the use of assemblies seems unlikely to work without other, more fundamental changes. However, your concern about "expertise" is unfounded - firstly parliament would agree and legislate the need for a referendum, then the assembly members would hear testimony from interested parties and form their opinion and vote on it...... so, in a way, it is just a pre-filter to round off the corners of a requirement which will then be voted on by the voting public.... I doubt very much that any idea that only gained a 52/48 split would ever get to that stage. Have a look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citize...mbly_(Ireland)
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