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Post EU Referendum...Part II

Post EU Referendum...Part II

Old Sep 2nd 2018, 9:48 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Perhaps they were competing with new EU immigrants for jobs and housing, just like millions of other Brits.
I wasn't aware we had millions of new EU immigrants. They're not particularly good at stealing jobs if that is the case, since the unemployment figures, bar a spike during the late noughties for well-documented reasons, have remained largely unchanged over the past 20 years or so. Fallen, if anything.
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Old Sep 2nd 2018, 10:20 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
I wasn't aware we had millions of new EU immigrants. They're not particularly good at stealing jobs if that is the case, since the unemployment figures, bar a spike during the late noughties for well-documented reasons, have remained largely unchanged over the past 20 years or so. Fallen, if anything.
Firstly I didn't say we had millions of new EU migrants.

Secondly there are millions of EU migrants.

Thirdly, the volume of jobs created are low-pay, tax-credit-attracting, zero-hour type jobs who wages are suppressed due to excessive supply of labour due to high net immigration and the expansion of the reserve pool of labour to include tens of millions of poorer EU citizens.

Fourthly, you did not address the competition for relatively inelastic housing.
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 7:25 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
I wasn't aware we had millions of new EU immigrants. They're not particularly good at stealing jobs if that is the case, since the unemployment figures, bar a spike during the late noughties for well-documented reasons, have remained largely unchanged over the past 20 years or so. Fallen, if anything.
70+ million. All secretly living in the UK, taking all jobs while living on benefits, and causing traffic jams with their benefit range rovers.


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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 8:31 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Firstly I didn't say we had millions of new EU migrants.
True - that was me.

Your line, then, is that millions of Brits are scrapping it out with each other over jobs which are scarce and which a small number (by comparison) of new EU migrants nip in and secure, thus denying them?

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Secondly there are millions of EU migrants.
And I didn't say there weren't although some of those born in another EU member state will have moved to the UK prior even to the current incarnation of EU FoM being implemented (see Bipat et al).

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Thirdly, the volume of jobs created are low-pay, tax-credit-attracting, zero-hour type jobs who wages are suppressed due to excessive supply of labour due to high net immigration and the expansion of the reserve pool of labour to include tens of millions of poorer EU citizens.

Along with tens of millions of richer, well-educated and qualified EU citizens, some of whom form the bulk of the migrant EU workforce in the UK.


Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Fourthly, you did not address the competition for relatively inelastic housing.
I think you'll find that's the government's job. It's not as though it's a new problem, as anybody with experience of seeking accommodation in London (I assume that's where you're referring to primarily) in any of the past decades within living memory will no doubt be happy to testify.
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 9:10 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
True - that was me.

Your line, then, is that millions of Brits are scrapping it out with each other over jobs which are scarce and which a small number (by comparison) of new EU migrants nip in and secure, thus denying them?
My line is that an oversupply of labour permits suppression of wages. This is set at the margins. It also incentivises stagnating productivity levels in the UK.

Along with tens of millions of richer, well-educated and qualified EU citizens, some of whom form the bulk of the migrant EU workforce in the UK.
Doing low-paid, low-skill jobs, many of which are generated by the high net immigration itself and garner in-work benefits, negating any benefit to the UK as a whole.

I think you'll find that's the government's job. It's not as though it's a new problem, as anybody with experience of seeking accommodation in London (I assume that's where you're referring to primarily) in any of the past decades within living memory will no doubt be happy to testify.
The situation over the past 20 years is way worse than it was before, with the rent to income ratio being far worse, let alone the price to income ratio. Some of this is due to historic low interest rates, but the primary cause is population increase outstripping an inelastic supply and this population increase is predominantly immigration-driven. As a landlord in London since the mid-90's and living and renting there myself in the early 90's it is clear that the increased competition for accommodation from migration has pushed up rents for all, including Brits both native and previous migrant.
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 10:22 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
My line is that an oversupply of labour permits suppression of wages. This is set at the margins. It also incentivises stagnating productivity levels in the UK.

Doing low-paid, low-skill jobs, many of which are generated by the high net immigration itself and garner in-work benefits, negating any benefit to the UK as a whole.

The situation over the past 20 years is way worse than it was before, with the rent to income ratio being far worse, let alone the price to income ratio. Some of this is due to historic low interest rates, but the primary cause is population increase outstripping an inelastic supply and this population increase is predominantly immigration-driven. As a landlord in London since the mid-90's and living and renting there myself in the early 90's it is clear that the increased competition for accommodation from migration has pushed up rents for all, including Brits both native and previous migrant.
No worries, the UK will soon become far less attractive. Have you made your contingency plans yet? Tick-tock.

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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 10:27 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Doing low-paid, low-skill jobs, many of which are generated by the high net immigration itself and garner in-work benefits, negating any benefit to the UK as a whole.
Should low-skilled work be higher- or highly-paid then, or should human workers be replaced by automation? Higher pay reduces in-work benefits, raises costs to the employer and customer, and rarely increases the actual income of the worker. So no-one really wins, though that's not a reason to avoid considering alternatives to the status quo. Automation increases the number of unemployed.

Those jobs generated by migration are still providing a service to others. You're providing a service too, and probably make enough profit to want to continue doing so. Do any of your tenants receive in-work or out-of-work benefits such as Tax Credits, Universal Credit or Housing/Council Tax benefits? If they do, you're benefiting too from their increase in disposable income.that helps pay their rent.
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 10:45 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
Should low-skilled work be higher- or highly-paid then, or should human workers be replaced by automation? Higher pay reduces in-work benefits, raises costs to the employer and customer, and rarely increases the actual income of the worker. So no-one really wins, though that's not a reason to avoid considering alternatives to the status quo. Automation increases the number of unemployed.

Those jobs generated by migration are still providing a service to others. You're providing a service too, and probably make enough profit to want to continue doing so. Do any of your tenants receive in-work or out-of-work benefits such as Tax Credits, Universal Credit or Housing/Council Tax benefits? If they do, you're benefiting too from their increase in disposable income.that helps pay their rent.
The only way low-skilled jobs will become higher-paid is if employers need to compete for workers - some places will pay more, others will opt for automation - both good results for workers and the UK. Anyone made unemployed through automation can take up one of the roles we apparently "need" to import a third of a million migrants to do at the moment.

"Higher pay rarely increases the actual income of the worker"? Can you explain that?

Jobs generated by migration that garner in-work bennies and are below the wage level to be a net contributor are solely a drain on the UK.

I don't know if my tenants receive those bennies - but if they do they are a subsidy to their employers. The increase in disposable income doesn't help them pay their rent, it gives them more money to spend on items of choice, not necessities like accommodation.

What does help me increase my rents is more people wanting accommodation.
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 12:03 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
The only way low-skilled jobs will become higher-paid is if employers need to compete for workers - some places will pay more, others will opt for automation - both good results for workers and the UK. Anyone made unemployed through automation can take up one of the roles we apparently "need" to import a third of a million migrants to do at the moment.
No, wages can rise anytime the employer chooses to increase them, and pay for the increases . Large companies are required to maximise the profits for shareholders, so pay as little as they can to their employees. Smaller companies can't afford to pay more than necessary to be able to stay in business. Raising costs though means customers who buy on price may find somewhere else for the product at a lower price.

"Higher pay rarely increases the actual income of the worker"? Can you explain that?
Try reading it again. I'll help you.

Higher pay reduces in-work benefits, raises costs to the employer and customer, and rarely increases the actual income of the worker.
If you're receiving in-work benefits and your employment pay increases, the in-work benefits decrease by the same amount. So the worker doesn't see any increase in overall income.

Jobs generated by migration that garner in-work bennies and are below the wage level to be a net contributor are solely a drain on the UK.
As the current National Minimum Wage (I refuse to call it a Living wage) rate for 25+ is £7.83ph, a worker on 40hrs per week makes £16,286.40 per year. For a single person, that's a decent wage, but for a family of 2 adults (one of which may be home looking after young children, it's not enough to live on.

According to the Migration Advisory Committee who the government asked to assess a minimum income requirement for the UK Spouse Visa implementation in 2012, A family of 2 adults and 0 children cease to be net recipients of government assistance at £18,600 per year, and begin to be net taxpayers at £25,700 per year.

At £7.83ph, a single-income household needs to work a minimum of 45.7hrs pw to meet the £18,600 figure and a little over 63.1hrs pw to reach the higher figure. Any many low-paid jobs these days are advertised as 10/15/20/25hrs pw because it's easier to hire and schedule two part-time workers for the same shift than a single worker or double the hours.

Part-time workers are also more likely to work around childcare, college or university, and more likely to pick up extra shifts. There'll also be no or little employer's tax and NI for employees on shorter hours.

I don't know if my tenants receive those bennies - but if they do they are a subsidy to their employers. The increase in disposable income doesn't help them pay their rent, it gives them more money to spend on items of choice, not necessities like accommodation.
Let's stop subsiding those employers then. How would you do it without causing a massive disruption to people who currently receive this help?

What does help me increase my rents is more people wanting accommodation.
No, you choose to put rents up to take advantage of those who can afford to pay more, increasing your profits. Which actually reduces the pool of who can afford those rents without needing benefits. More people wanting accomodation just helps you do that, but they could always live 10 to a 4-bed house, couldn't they?
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 12:44 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
No, wages can rise anytime the employer chooses to increase them, and pay for the increases . Large companies are required to maximise the profits for shareholders, so pay as little as they can to their employees. Smaller companies can't afford to pay more than necessary to be able to stay in business. Raising costs though means customers who buy on price may find somewhere else for the product at a lower price.
No, they can't, the employer that raises wages above the market rate is the employer that goes out of business because they cannot compete with others who did not raise above the market rate. The only way to raise the whole playing field is to have a tighter employment market where all employers need to compete for employees - in the past this was the case when unemployment is low, but with the reserve pool of labour now encompassing tens of millions of EU citizens, the unemployment rate is no longer low for the purposes of wage inflation.

Try reading it again. I'll help you.

If you're receiving in-work benefits and your employment pay increases, the in-work benefits decrease by the same amount. So the worker doesn't see any increase in overall income.
Your clarification helps, although I'm not sure bennies drop on a one-for-one basis.

As the current National Minimum Wage (I refuse to call it a Living wage) rate for 25+ is £7.83ph, a worker on 40hrs per week makes £16,286.40 per year. For a single person, that's a decent wage, but for a family of 2 adults (one of which may be home looking after young children, it's not enough to live on.

According to the Migration Advisory Committee who the government asked to assess a minimum income requirement for the UK Spouse Visa implementation in 2012, A family of 2 adults and 0 children cease to be net recipients of government assistance at £18,600 per year, and begin to be net taxpayers at £25,700 per year.

At £7.83ph, a single-income household needs to work a minimum of 45.7hrs pw to meet the £18,600 figure and a little over 63.1hrs pw to reach the higher figure. Any many low-paid jobs these days are advertised as 10/15/20/25hrs pw because it's easier to hire and schedule two part-time workers for the same shift than a single worker or double the hours.

Part-time workers are also more likely to work around childcare, college or university, and more likely to pick up extra shifts. There'll also be no or little employer's tax and NI for employees on shorter hours.
All very interesting, but what you are saying is that two adults and no children should not be imported until they are on more than £25.700pa. With children it should likely be £35K+.

Let's stop subsiding those employers then. How would you do it without causing a massive disruption to people who currently receive this help?
You phase-out a lot of in-work bennies over a time period. Or you stop mass migration and any shortfall of workers will ensure wages rise to the point where there are no need for in-work bennies.

No, you choose to put rents up to take advantage of those who can afford to pay more, increasing your profits. Which actually reduces the pool of who can afford those rents without needing benefits. More people wanting accomodation just helps you do that, but they could always live 10 to a 4-bed house, couldn't they?
I sell my wares at the market rate, just as Tesco, Next and Weatherspoons do - a persistent high population expansion ensures a tight accommodation market and enables a higher market rate for my wares.
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 2:11 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
My line is that an oversupply of labour permits suppression of wages. This is set at the margins.
I'm not sure how you can say labour is over-supplied when the UK is deemed to be at full employment. That would appear to me to indicate an adequate supply.

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Doing low-paid, low-skill jobs, many of which are generated by the high net immigration itself and garner in-work benefits, negating any benefit to the UK as a whole.
In many cases not, apparently. Only around 500,000 (what's that - 1/6th?) of the EU-born workers in the UK are doing low-skilled jobs By far the majority are doing middle-skilled jobs, with another 500,000-odd in high-skilled work.

So it appears the UK's vacuum-cleaner approach to cornering more than its share of the EU's work opportunities and then sucking in foreign-sourced and trained workers to do it succeeds whatever the skill level of the employment that's been commandeered. Maybe when the primary reason for those jobs being there no longer exists, some of them can be repatriated to where they belong and maybe when the UK government has a moment it might like to start addressing the laws (or lack of them) which created the conditions which looked so attractive to the exploiting entities.
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 2:22 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Your clarification helps, although I'm not sure bennies drop on a one-for-one basis.
So you're unsure they don't, either. Because if you were sure, you'd probably have done some research. And btw, they do drop on a one-for-one basis.

All very interesting, but what you are saying is that two adults and no children should not be imported until they are on more than £25.700pa. With children it should likely be £35K+.
You're either deliberately misrepresenting what I say, or you're having trouble comprehending written English. I dod not say anything about importing anyone.

You phase-out a lot of in-work bennies over a time period. Or you stop mass migration and any shortfall of workers will ensure wages rise to the point where there are no need for in-work bennies.
Either way, employers will have to pay employees much more than they currently do. Which means prices will rise considerably. And the rich make more money at the expense of the lower-paid.

I sell my wares at the market rate, just as Tesco, Next and Weatherspoons do - a persistent high population expansion ensures a tight accommodation market and enables a higher market rate for my wares.
Tesco sell most items at the lowest cost they can to attract as many customers as possible, even though they could have gone the Waitrose route and appealed to the middle-class customer. The former widen their customer base, the latter uses higher prices to minimise those it doesn't really want as customers.
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 7:02 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
We have discussed this before so you know the poll was regarding those from the Subcontinent not just those of Indian origin.
It was because of the large number that are involved with small and large businesses and the knowledge of future bilateral trade deals etc.
They 'all' know that the prejudice experienced although 'painful' is from a minority of indigenous British people.
Those from the sub continent are not exclusively the non EU voting population on the UK so your claims ref migrant votes for Brexit are without any basis in fact.
The " Desi " vote as you call it is just one part of the non EU migrants voting population.
Just as your " large number" is a small % of the migrant vote in the UK.
At least you confirm that fear of growing prejudice from the majority of UK brexit voters towards migrants.was a factor in their voting decision
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 7:07 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Oi !
Who put the white-flag out on the tank then ??
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Old Sep 3rd 2018, 7:21 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
Those from the sub continent are not exclusively the non EU voting population on the UK so your claims ref migrant votes for Brexit are without any basis in fact.
The " Desi " vote as you call it is just one part of the non EU migrants voting population.
Just as your " large number" is a small % of the migrant vote in the UK.
At least you confirm that fear of growing prejudice from the majority of UK brexit voters towards migrants.was a factor in their voting decision
EMR, I did NOT confirm that "fear of growing prejudice from the majority of UK Brexit voters" etc.

I stated that "they all know that prejudice---is from a ''minority'' of indigenous British people" ---Apology please!

(Those from the Subcontinent are the largest group of migrant people)
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