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Post EU Referendum...Part II

Post EU Referendum...Part II

Old Jun 11th 2020, 8:00 pm
  #19621  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Of course one problem facing EU car makers in addition to tarriffs will be an expected dip in the value of the pound should the markets resolve that no deal will on balance be not good.
For Nissan the addition of tarriffs will be offset to an extent by a fall in sterling and it's possible that, given a tarriff surplus collected on imports by HMG, companies like Nissan will be partially or wholly reimbursed by HMG from such income.
Of course, a UK not tied to EU rules will be able to do this, no level playing field here but one sloping towards the UK.
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Old Jun 11th 2020, 9:04 pm
  #19622  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Britain is not the EU's biggest market. It represents a mere 7% of total exports from the EU. And Britain certainly won't stop buying European foodstuffs, cars, machinery, building materials, etc, no matter what tariffs are imposed. The reverse however, is highly questionable, there's precious little that the UK produces that EU member states don't. Europe isn't dependent in UK products.

Last edited by amideislas; Jun 11th 2020 at 9:06 pm.
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Old Jun 11th 2020, 9:12 pm
  #19623  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
Britain is not the EU's biggest market. It represents a mere 7% of total exports from the EU. And Britain certainly won't stop buying European foodstuffs, cars, machinery, building materials, etc, no matter what tariffs are imposed. The reverse however, is highly questionable, there's precious little that the UK produces that EU member states don't. Europe isn't dependent in UK products.
Not even financial services? Look it up.
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Old Jun 11th 2020, 9:19 pm
  #19624  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

I doubt anyone actually believes there will be a financial services deal. That's way off the radar now.

The banks have already established offices and licencing in Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris, Amsterdam.. and transferred over 1 trillion in assets to the continent (including the hedge firms of prominent brexiteers hedging on sterling collapse) They're already resourced to quickly transfer more assets and human resources when the UK jumps off the cliff. They're covered. No news here.

Last edited by amideislas; Jun 11th 2020 at 9:52 pm.
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Old Jun 11th 2020, 10:12 pm
  #19625  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
I doubt anyone actually believes there will be a financial services deal. That's way off the radar now.

The banks have already established offices and licencing in Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris, Amsterdam.. and transferred over 1 trillion in assets to the continent (including the hedge firms of prominent brexiteers hedging on sterling collapse) They're already resourced to quickly transfer more assets and human resources when the UK jumps off the cliff. They're covered. No news here.
I didn’t say a deal but it makes you wonder why a huge number of EU financial businesses are opening offices in the UK post-Brexit if they don’t need the City and the UK is jumping off a cliff. Any thoughts on that? Also makes you wonder just where the EU hopes to raise the money for its recovery fund. On the international financial markets, I hear, one of which is the City. Because Europe’s capital markets aren’t strong enough or deep enough. And a hard break between the U.K. and the EU will damage the bloc by starving it of liquidity. Not fit for purpose, as one international trader said. This was said BEFORE the Covid crisis and the EU announced its multi-billion recovery fund.

Look, I don’t give a damn anymore now we have left the EU. If you want to carry on with your anti-Brit hate then do so. But the facts speak for themselves.
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Old Jun 11th 2020, 10:43 pm
  #19626  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

A lot of people are sayin'. Well you anyway.

Well, you can believe what you want, but reality always has a funny way of sorting things. The Brexit government just keeps spinning each humiliation as a victory. How long do you really think that can be sustained before people start to realise that they've been sold a pup?
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Old Jun 11th 2020, 10:47 pm
  #19627  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
A lot of people are sayin'. Well you anyway.

Well, you can believe what you want, but reality always has a funny way of sorting things. The Brexit government just keeps spinning each humiliation as a victory. How long do you really think that can be sustained before people start to realise that they've been sold a pup?
After all these years is this the sum total? Goodnight.
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Old Jun 12th 2020, 6:31 am
  #19628  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

I predicted this would happen. The UK is much too dependent on European imports to impose customs burdens.

This is effectively, ignoring WTO obligations *and* the Irish sea border. Temporary. You know, to make the transition easier. During the ... transition. That damn coronavirus.

UK backtracks on full EU border checks amid coronavirus crisis


At least the EU can wave away those "no deal" export losses it's supposed to be terrified of.

Last edited by amideislas; Jun 12th 2020 at 7:51 am.
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Old Jun 12th 2020, 7:55 am
  #19629  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
I predicted this would happen. The UK is much too dependent on European imports to impose customs burdens. This is effectively, ignoring WTO obligations *and* the Irish sea border. Temporary. You know, to make the transition easier. During the ... transition. That damn coronavirus.

UK backtracks on full EU border checks amid coronavirus crisis


At least the EU can wave away those "no deal" export losses it's supposed to be terrified of.
I'm pleased to see that you predicted this. It would have been better had you itemised it in the prediction thread, but perhaps you did, I no longer have the will to look.
This Brexit has been hard fought. Those who would deny the UK of a referendum result have dug in and delayed the inevitable at great cost to everyone but themselves.
The UK should have used the time to equip and man it's border customs system but in the vain hope that EU would realise that it takes two to tango it has resisted the temptation to walk away.
Only now, when the EU has realised that it's firmly glued to those negotiating tramlines, is the UK starting to beef up it's border controls. However, the loss of many years preparation can't be recovered overnight and the pragmatic approcah will be to establish these quickly but only as they're capable.
Those Audis and Mercedes, well they'll not be exempt but the odd french onion might be... for now at least because it suits.

Time will tell who's been less wrong because nobody gets it right all the time.





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Old Jun 12th 2020, 8:25 am
  #19630  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Frankly, it wasn't hard to predict. The UK is very heavily dependent on European imports. Food, machinery, building materials, cars... And Britain isn't going to stop buying it anytime soon. No matter what. The warnings about this have been constant, yet dismissed as "remoaner hyperbole".

The fact remains that throughout the Brexit process, in their euphoria of hubris and exceptionalism, they never really considered this and many other realities as they started their phoney war. And all along, as they've been forced to face reality, it's been U turn and capitulation every time, always dressed up as victory.

so much for "they need us more than we need them". Another false premise bites the dust.

As I've always said, reality always has a funny way of sorting things.

Last edited by amideislas; Jun 12th 2020 at 8:38 am.
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Old Jun 12th 2020, 8:35 am
  #19631  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by paulry View Post
Just bouncing ideas, but maybe If no deal and tariffs result between the UK and the EU, maybe Nisson are banking on getting a larger share of the UK market? Or how about free trade agreements between the UK and other markets - increasing their market share in those countries?
Free trade?

Are you sure? I thought you were a protectionist, like many in the Tory party
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Old Jun 12th 2020, 8:50 am
  #19632  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

In populist alternate reality, whatever's convenient is the proper argument.
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Old Jun 12th 2020, 8:51 am
  #19633  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by paulry View Post
Just bouncing ideas, but maybe If no deal and tariffs result between the UK and the EU, maybe Nisson are banking on getting a larger share of the UK market? Or how about free trade agreements between the UK and other markets - increasing their market share in those countries?
free trade agreements with whom ? this is a general Brexit fantasy that (a) free trade agreements would be necessarily beneficial to the UK (b) can be done on a short period of time (c) that the countries often mentioned may have a negative trade and payment relationship with the UK already-building more trade countries could worsen UK balance of trade and payments,
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Old Jun 12th 2020, 10:57 am
  #19634  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

It's also horribly naïve and uninformed to presume that if the UK had "free trade" agreements with other countries, that Japanese automakers (or any industry, really) would magically invest in UK manufacturing plants to build products for those markets which the UK holds trade agreements with. If that were the case, then why isn't Nissan producing cars in the UK for say, the Canadian market? A free trade agreement already exists with Canada (although that will cease for the UK on Jan 1).
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Old Jun 12th 2020, 12:15 pm
  #19635  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
It's also horribly naïve and uninformed to presume that if the UK had "free trade" agreements with other countries, that Japanese automakers (or any industry, really) would magically invest in UK manufacturing plants to build products for those markets which the UK holds trade agreements with. If that were the case, then why isn't Nissan producing cars in the UK for say, the Canadian market? A free trade agreement already exists with Canada (although that will cease for the UK on Jan 1).
Nissan has already said that it will close the huge Sunderland plant if there's a no-deal Brexit. Sunderland is also a covid hotspot.

So much for the Mackems.
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