British Expats

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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

Editha Aug 6th 2016 2:13 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12021085)
Thanks for the link to an excellent article. The section called "Evidence Gaps and Limitations" clearly outlines the challenges of the subject. I am more familiar with US and Switzerland, but the article covering the UK does point out :

1. There is a difference in type of immigration , whether EU or non EU- the article points out that in studies from 1975 to 1994, and again from 1995-2010 non EU immigration associated with reduction of employment of UK workers. Le Pen in a recent interview cited such studies showing the same in France.
2. The second issue is type of skills and education of the immigrants, that the higher skills and education of immigrants can have a positive effect on economy and hence unemployment.
3. My own opinion is that such studies need to take into account issues such as real wages and the effect of overall labor supply and the potential multiplier effect of higher real wages to more properly look effects of immigration on employment rate and wages for the native born, Most studies I have seen do not properly in my opinion consider this factor enough.

Still think common sense wins, the greater increase in the labor supply in an economy not growing fast enough to absorb the increase ij the labor supply, this can effect real wages and unemployment rates in a negative fashion especially for lower income or lower skilled workers.

I am more familiar with US market, I have seen first-hand examples of effects of immigration. For example in an area I lived small contractors gradually being pushed out of market as contractors using Mexican labor under bid them, resulting in more unemployment among native born workers. So therefore I am supposed to believe putting native born workers earning higher wages out of work by immigrants with lower wages and often not paying taxes, is a net benefit, don't think so. At least this explains resentment of those who see the competition.

My own anecdotal evidence is simply that the effects of immigration are complicated and it is probably better to rely on the research evidence.

I used to live in the Midlands. There was a rendering plant locally run by a very ambitious family who kept expanding their business. The plant and the traffic to it was often very smelly, particularly in hot weather which resulted in complaints from the local community.

The firm solved their labour and community relations problem by buying up any house near their plant that came on the market, and then using it to house Polish workers. They continued to employ local people too, but the perception was that wages were lower, and contractual conditions less favourable to employees, than they would have been if the Poles had not been employed.

Nevertheless, the firm continues to be an important and expanding local employer, and who knows whether they would have been so successful without the access to non-complaining Polish labour?

Now I am living in the West Country. This is one of the poorest areas of the UK. More than a third of the population is on the minimum wage. But this is certainly not because of competition from EU workers; the local immigrant population is very small.

The EU migrants that I am aware of mostly run their own businesses, and often employ local people, so they are positive contributors to the economy and provide needed jobs.

Editha Aug 6th 2016 2:30 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Wol (Post 12021074)
I believe the figure is over that, and is for NET immigration.

True, but that makes no difference to the point I was making.

Bipat Aug 6th 2016 2:31 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Editha (Post 12021105)
My own anecdotal evidence is simply that the effects of immigration are complicated and it is probably better to rely on the research evidence.

I used to live in the Midlands. There was a rendering plant locally run by a very ambitious family who kept expanding their business. The plant and the traffic to it was often very smelly, particularly in hot weather which resulted in complaints from the local community.

The firm solved their labour and community relations problem by buying up any house near their plant that came on the market, and then using it to house Polish workers. They continued to employ local people too, but the perception was that wages were lower, and contractual conditions less favourable to employees, than they would have been if the Poles had not been employed.

Nevertheless, the firm continues to be an important and expanding local employer, and who knows whether they would have been so successful without the access to non-complaining Polish labour?

Now I am living in the West Country. This is one of the poorest areas of the UK. More than a third of the population is on the minimum wage. But this is certainly not because of competition from EU workers; the local immigrant population is very small.

The EU migrants that I am aware of mostly run their own businesses, and often employ local people, so they are positive contributors to the economy and provide needed jobs.

Yes I agree that effects of immigration are complicated, but I wonder why you are so scathing about the Brexit aim of EU and non-EU immigrants being admitted with the same rules/restrictions.
European immigrants would still come as they always have, since long before UK joined the EU.

Editha Aug 6th 2016 2:36 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Because I think it is to the benefit of British people to have the right to live and work, without visa restrictions, in the 27 countries of the EU, among all the other benefits we got from the EU and are now losing. The EU gave our young people opportunities which cannot be replaced, and I think it was a dreadful thing to do to them.

Bipat Aug 6th 2016 2:59 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Editha (Post 12021114)
Because I think it is to the benefit of British people to have the right to live and work, without visa restrictions, in the 27 countries of the EU, among all the other benefits we got from the EU and are now losing. The EU gave our young people opportunities which cannot be replaced, and I think it was a dreadful thing to do to them.

Well! you are saying that you disagree with Brexit --that is a different issue.
Given that we have had a referendum and the majority voted to leave.

I cannot see that if visas/ work permits are introduced it will be a problem. (Discussed in other thread).

Why should opportunities for young people be lost? We are not building a wall around the UK.
There are also many opportunities in non-EU countries.


(The UK has benefited also from immigrants from outside of Europe who helped establish the NHS/worked in factories/ kept transport moving/opened shops after the war and still do! Their students continue to help fund the UK universities.
British used to quite happily live in their countries and many still do, in spite of the bl***y visas :lol:)

jimenato Aug 6th 2016 3:44 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12021110)
Yes I agree that effects of immigration are complicated, but I wonder why you are so scathing about the Brexit aim of EU and non-EU immigrants being admitted with the same rules/restrictions.
European immigrants would still come as they always have, since long before UK joined the EU.

What I want to know is how you know that that is the aim of Brexit?

morpeth Aug 6th 2016 4:11 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Editha (Post 12021105)
My own anecdotal evidence is simply that the effects of immigration are complicated and it is probably better to rely on the research evidence.

I used to live in the Midlands. There was a rendering plant locally run by a very ambitious family who kept expanding their business. The plant and the traffic to it was often very smelly, particularly in hot weather which resulted in complaints from the local community.

The firm solved their labour and community relations problem by buying up any house near their plant that came on the market, and then using it to house Polish workers. They continued to employ local people too, but the perception was that wages were lower, and contractual conditions less favourable to employees, than they would have been if the Poles had not been employed.

Nevertheless, the firm continues to be an important and expanding local employer, and who knows whether they would have been so successful without the access to non-complaining Polish labour?

Now I am living in the West Country. This is one of the poorest areas of the UK. More than a third of the population is on the minimum wage. But this is certainly not because of competition from EU workers; the local immigrant population is very small.

The EU migrants that I am aware of mostly run their own businesses, and often employ local people, so they are positive contributors to the economy and provide needed jobs.

I agree it is complicated as the article you cited pointed out to determine the effects on jobs by immigration.

As I read the article the report it cited indicated non-EU immigrants did have an negative effect on unemployment. Add to that difficulties in integration and possible security concerns.

The non-economic reasons why people choose to stay in an area , even if better opportunities elsewhere, can effect wages too.

The example you have given is perfectly logical in the short run bringing in foreign workers could have a localized beneficial effect. But I see nothing in my observation or even reports I have seen including the one you sent a link too, that contradicts the logic that importing lower skilled or less educated workers doesn't cause downward pressure on wages and unemployment. If wages rise in one area , it has some effect on other areas.

morpeth Aug 6th 2016 4:20 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Editha (Post 12021114)
Because I think it is to the benefit of British people to have the right to live and work, without visa restrictions, in the 27 countries of the EU, among all the other benefits we got from the EU and are now losing. The EU gave our young people opportunities which cannot be replaced, and I think it was a dreadful thing to do to them.

I agree that EU membership is offers opportunities especially for young people.

The difficulty in the economy and security situation though creates various concerns about immigration. A better path may be shown by US immigration policies. From the 1880's until end of the first world war the US had a flood of immigrants, mainly European but from areas consider different to the "traditional" make up of US population. Then immigration policies and trends changed, and there were a few decades of less immigration on a comparative basis, giving time for immigrants to integrate and be absorbed into the economy.

I think if non EU immigration eliminated for even 10 years, better ways of vetting immigrants and controlling borders even if that meant more border controls etc, and restrictions on levels of EU immigration, the end result I believe would be better than a continuation of the current situation.

Bipat Aug 6th 2016 4:36 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by jimenato (Post 12021139)
What I want to know is how you know that that is the aim of Brexit?

As anyone else, I just know what I heard them say--Gisela Stewart, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson. All stated they would prefer some sort of points system.

Bipat Aug 6th 2016 4:47 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12021154)
I agree that EU membership is offers opportunities especially for young people.

The difficulty in the economy and security situation though creates various concerns about immigration. A better path may be shown by US immigration policies. From the 1880's until end of the first world war the US had a flood of immigrants, mainly European but from areas consider different to the "traditional" make up of US population. Then immigration policies and trends changed, and there were a few decades of less immigration on a comparative basis, giving time for immigrants to integrate and be absorbed into the economy.

I think if non EU immigration eliminated for even 10 years, better ways of vetting immigrants and controlling borders even if that meant more border controls etc, and restrictions on levels of EU immigration, the end result I believe would be better than a continuation of the current situation.

Surely you don't mean what you have said?
We would be short of doctors, academics, other skilled workers the Universities loss of funding from students.
Do you really think there would be investment from, trade agreements with other countries if their nationals were not allowed to migrate or work to the UK and what about UK people migrating and working in non-EU countries, they do manage to apply for visas without too much difficulty.
Obviously it won't happen:lol:

jimenato Aug 6th 2016 5:02 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12021165)
As anyone else, I just know what I heard them say--Gisela Stewart, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson. All stated they would prefer some sort of points system.

And you believed them?

I agree with a previous poster - I feel quite sorry for you.:(

Bipat Aug 6th 2016 5:15 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by jimenato (Post 12021178)
And you believed them?

I agree with a previous poster - I feel quite sorry for you.:(

Well, if you know better please tell us what will happen. ( I will accept your opinion without being patronising ;))

morpeth Aug 6th 2016 5:16 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12021174)
Surely you don't mean what you have said?
We would be short of doctors, academics, other skilled workers the Universities loss of funding from students.
Do you really think there would be investment from, trade agreements with other countries if their nationals were not allowed to migrate or work to the UK and what about UK people migrating and working in non-EU countries, they do manage to apply for visas without too much difficulty.
Obviously it won't happen:lol:

The UK has numerous bi-lateral relations with countries where their people have difficulty getting visa to UK while British expats have an easier time visiting or working in the other country. I could have worded my post better- I agree there would probably need some exceptions for defined needs such as doctors or other highly skilled professionals, foreign students getting visas for study etc. My opinion simply that re-thinking immigration and border controls is necessary looking at trends in the UK,EU or the USA. Taking a break from the huge numbers of migrants and refugees the last 10 years in the long run address to some degree the current issues, and improve integration.

jimenato Aug 6th 2016 5:44 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12021187)
Well, if you know better please tell us what will happen. ( I will accept your opinion without being patronising ;))

I have absolutely no idea!!

That's the whole point - nobody knows - not Fox, Johnson, Davis, May - no-one.

No-one had a clue during the campaign and no-one knows yet.

Meanwhile some leavers (those few who are still interested in any of this) seem to be making assumptions that their pet wish and promised benefit will be fulfilled - whether it concerns Muslims, immigration of foreigners, freedom of movement of Brits, money for the NHS, Muslims, 'reclaiming their country', sovereignty, faceless bureaucrats, 80% of laws made in Brussels, Muslims...

Going to be an awful lot of pissed off leavers...

mfesharne Aug 6th 2016 7:24 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by jimenato (Post 12021205)
I have absolutely no idea!!

That's the whole point - nobody knows - not Fox, Johnson, Davis, May - no-one.

No-one had a clue during the campaign and no-one knows yet.

Meanwhile some leavers (those few who are still interested in any of this) seem to be making assumptions that their pet wish and promised benefit will be fulfilled - whether it concerns Muslims, immigration of foreigners, freedom of movement of Brits, money for the NHS, Muslims, 'reclaiming their country', sovereignty, faceless bureaucrats, 80% of laws made in Brussels, Muslims...

Going to be an awful lot of pissed off leavers...

But even more pissed off remainers! bwhahahahaha!

Sorry about that. - I just couldn't resist! :rofl:

Joking aside: No-one can see into the future no matter what side they're on & it's nowhere near impossible that the EU could collapse even before Brexit is complete & the most likely cause would be other member states voting for their own exit(s).


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