Bipat

"Fear of globalisation", how many times must the 'blood boil'?
The "globe" contains a whole load more countries than Europe does.
The majority of the globe is not in the EU. Brexit is about globalisation.

amideislas

Nobody ever said it was.

It's no secret that those who voted leave were overwhelmingly comprised of older white voters who have suffered the upheavals of globalisation in their lifetime; the decline of domestic manufacturing and the jobs that go with them, the transformation to an information and services economy, etc. That's what's driving it. It's the same thing that drove Trump's popularity.

However, there was an additional factor; nationalism and fear of foreigners (particularly the immigration increases that naturally result from globalisation), justified both by the effects of globalisation being felt by the population, but also by the effects of increasing wealth disparity resulting from increasingly conservative domestic social policy, both having little or nothing to do with its EU membership. It was these "justifications", promoted with shockingly hysterical exaggeration, falsely blamed entirely on EU membership, which ultimately led to the surprising vote result.

The irony of brexit is pretty simple.

First and most obvious is the fact that most of what's driving brexit has little to do with its EU membership. The reality of this emerges daily now.

But perhaps the biggest irony is the fact that currently, Britain's global attraction (yes, in a globalised world) is that it is the preferred gateway to the world's largest economy. Britain is a mature, reliable, business-friendly place to establish a business presence that facilitates unfettered access to a $16 trillion economy of nearly 500 million consumers. That's huge. Full stop.

That's about as good as it can get for Britain, an island nation of 65 million and a GDP of a little under $3 trillion, the vast majority of that generated not in exports, but in services, about 70% of which are public (non-exportable) services such as the NHS (the UK is largely a tax-based economy, it needs taxable transactions to sustain itself), and about 12% in financial services, conducted largely by the very global (taxable) entities which are headquartered in the UK precisely because of it's added value within the EU.

But the UK has voted to leave the EU, not because of anything having to do with the EU really, but because of the downside effects of its transition to a truly globalised economy. Yet it's not all downside, Britain is actually in pretty good shape - comparatively. Well, for now, anyway.

If the UK actually does leave the EU in the way voters expected, it certainly will not represent any increased slice of the global economy. It can only mean accepting a much smaller role in it. And that's the paradox the new leadership is faced with.

It also explains the widespread uncertainty over whether the UK actually will pull the trigger. It would be close to suicidal. And anyone who understands how the world works knows that very well. Voters, however, do not.

Bipat

[QUOTE=amideislas;12028814]Nobody ever said it was.

It's no secret that those who voted leave were overwhelmingly comprised of older white voters who have suffered the upheavals of globalisation in their lifetime; the decline of domestic manufacturing and the jobs that go with them, the transformation to an information and services economy, etc. That's what's driving it. It's the same thing that drove Trump's popularity.

However, there was an additional factor; nationalism and fear of foreigners (particularly the immigration increases that naturally result from globalisation), justified both by the effects of globalisation being felt by the population, but also by the effects of increasing wealth disparity resulting from increasingly conservative domestic social policy, both having little or nothing to do with its EU membership. It was these "justifications", promoted with shockingly hysterical exaggeration, falsely blamed entirely on EU membership, which ultimately led to the surprising vote result.

The irony of brexit is pretty simple.

First and most obvious is the fact that most of what's driving brexit has little to do with its EU membership. The reality of this emerges daily now.

But perhaps the biggest irony is the fact that currently, Britain's global attraction (yes, in a globalised world) is that it is the preferred gateway to the world's largest economy. Britain is a mature, reliable, business-friendly place to establish a business presence that facilitates unfettered access to a $16 trillion economy of nearly 500 million consumers. That's huge. Full stop.

That's about as good as it can get for Britain, an island nation of 65 million and a GDP of a little under $3 trillion, the vast majority of that generated not in exports, but in services, about 70% of which are public (non-exportable) services such as the NHS (the UK is largely a tax-based economy, it needs taxable transactions to sustain itself), and about 12% in financial services, conducted largely by the very global (taxable) entities which are headquartered in the UK precisely because of it's added value within the EU.

But the UK has voted to leave the EU, not because of anything having to do with the EU really, but because of the downside effects of its transition to a truly globalised economy. Yet it's not all downside, Britain is actually in pretty good shape - comparatively. Well, for now, anyway.

If the UK actually does leave the EU in the way voters expected, it certainly will not represent any increased slice of the global economy. It can only mean accepting a much smaller role in it. And that's the paradox the new leadership is faced with.

It also explains the widespread uncertainty over whether the UK actually will pull the trigger. It would be close to suicidal. And anyone who understands how the world works knows that very well. Voters, however, do not.[/QUOTE]





Just to answer a few of your points.

--As the population is mostly "white" most of the voters will be "white".
A survey published in the Times of India (I posted it before) shows that 'Desi' origin immigrants voted in exactly the same proportions as "white voters".

How do you know why voters voted the way they did?

"Voters do not know how the world works"---but you do?????

Isn't it time you stood for Parliament in the UK, became an MP, climbed through the ranks, become our Prime Minister, then saved the world!!
EMR could be your deputy. Where has he gone?

amideislas

This is not only my opinion, it is well documented fact, most of which has been previously offered here in all forms, not just by me, but many others as well.

For many, it's not what they want to hear, which explains why it has been largely ignored by those who voted leave.

But ultimately, there will come a time when these realities will have to be dealt with. I suspect the new leadership has already consumed most of the reality. The question is, where to go from here, while minimising the damage?

Bipat

But you are also ignoring "facts"; the survey I indicated above.
The "fact" that you cannot possibly 'know' why all voters voted.
You cannot 'know' what voter knowlege is.
Yes, your views are a valid 'opinion'.

amideislas

Thanks for straightening me out on that detail, bipat, I wasn't sure if it was 72%, 57.5% or whatever.

But the fact still remains that the discontent is the result of the effects of globalisation. And... That the UK is now facing a nasty paradox, for precisely the reasons I outlined.

TGA

check out this paradox
UK unemployment claimant count falls after Brexit vote

from none other than the guardian!!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/business...s-after-brexit

amideislas

Thanks tga. But can you explain why that has anything to do with brexit or the EU (I'd have to suspect it has more to do with the EU and/or immigration than brexit).

Oh, look here:

At least the good news is that all those foreigners will be paying taxes. And that will help pay for all those "real" Brits on benefits street.

Dick Dasterdly

From Huff Post,

"German hi-tech and manufacturing company Siemens employs 14,000 people in the UK. Prior to the referendum they issued a press release stating: “In addition to the benefits of EU membership, we have concerns about what Brexit could mean in practice. Most commentators agree that a Brexit would disrupt the economy in the short-term and we believe that uncertainty about the UK’s future relationship with the EU could have more significant and negative long-term effects…This uncertainty, and threat of increased costs, could make the UK a less attractive place to do business and may become a factor when Siemens is considering future investment here.”

Once the referendum result was announced Joe Kaeser, the chief executive of Siemens, said “we’re here for the long-term and we don’t let ourselves get jerked up and down. We’re staying because the UK is a good place to do business and the company had been misunderstood in the heat of the Brexit campaign."

Just one of many apparent U turns since the referendum.

If this is Armageddon, then bring it on.

Bipat

Not sure what you are referring to?? I didn't mention any figures.

You stated as a 'fact' that the majority 'leave' vote was "white", I pointed out that a survey indicated that the 'brown' vote was of the same proportions.

What is your definition of "globalisation", I have always thought that the globe consisted of more than Europe. --Well I know it does, that is a 'fact'-. Unless you are so xenophobic that anywhere beyond Europe is out of your comfort zone?

amideislas

I believe you missed the point. Britain, like all other western economies, has equally suffered the transitional effects of globalisation. Manufacturing went to Asia, and being that Britain has few natural resources, and a small land mass which supports a proportionately large population, doesn't have a sustaining agriculture economy either. It had little choice but to shift to a service economy. That's been going on for 50 years or so.

In the face of that, the extent of Britain's continued prosperity is facilitated almost wholly by its EU membership. Britain is today a global economic power because it is the front gate to the world's largest economy. Without that, we're back to an island with few natural resources, and a small service economy.

But, that's what Britain voted for, so, the question is more about how to move forward with the least damage.

Dick Dasterdly

Unemployment Falls After Brexit - Guido Fawkes Euro Guido

Disappointment for the Guardian....and one or two others....on here.

Giantaxe

I'm not seeing a U-turn in what you have quoted. The first quote is about future investment considerations. The second is affirming that Siemens is "staying" in the UK. It says nothing on their post-Brexit viewpoint on future investment in the UK.

johnwoo

Isn't there some sort of irony there, when the UK doesn't want to be be part of the EU, but is increasingly reliant on it for jobs. Not exactly standing on it's own is it. Perhaps be the UK will become a source for cheap labour.

sir_eccles

I see reports that Nigel Farage was spotted in line at the German embassy, he of course denies he was there for a German passport. He has also grown a mustache.