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Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Old Mar 8th 2019, 1:05 pm
  #7651  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Annetje View Post
It seems she is standing in a warehouse loaded with brexit emergency stockpiling
Only half loaded, the rest of the stuff is stuck on a motorway somewhere near Dunkirk...
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 1:14 pm
  #7652  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
Well, that would be entirely consistent with the (democratically arrived at) referendum vote wouldn't it?
Says someone who would not be affected by the economic turmoil that would follow.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 1:19 pm
  #7653  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Watchpost View Post
Apologies for the missing open square bracket. :-(
None required. Excellent post.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 1:36 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
Says someone who would not be affected by the economic turmoil that would follow.
Meh. Millions of people, despite being aware at the time of how damaging they were, repeatedly voted for Maggie Thatcher's policies that led to huge economic turmoil that directly affected me, my family and the community we lived in for a generation.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 1:39 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Perhaps the alternative is leaving the EU - known by some as a hard leave.
Then why keep going back to the EU to change what's already been agreed as the WA? Why not just wait for another 3 weeks until it's 'no deal' by default.... Thought there's no way that that can be spun as the EU to blame, is there? And the UK government still wants something...

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
Well, that would be entirely consistent with the (democratically arrived at) referendum vote wouldn't it?
As I said earlier, democratically-arrived is stretching it a bit. I gave the reasons why earlier.

But let's accept that it was a democratic decision. Would it be democratic to give the electorate the opportunity to finish what they started, in a deal or no deal referendum? Of course, there'd have been time for one had the government not delayed at every opportunity. Maybe that's why they delayed.....
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 1:41 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
Meh. Millions of people, despite being aware at the time of how damaging they were, repeatedly voted for Maggie Thatcher's policies that led to huge economic turmoil that directly affected me, my family and the community we lived in for a generation.
But Thatcher was always subject to another election within 5yrs of the previous one, whereas the referendum isn't.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 1:47 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

What's the vote #2 question on No Deal, anyone know?
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 1:51 pm
  #7658  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
What's the vote #2 question on No Deal, anyone know?
Tuesday is likely.

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brex...eal-extension/
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 1:54 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
So the text is not yet decided.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 2:05 pm
  #7660  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by iano View Post
There is that option, 'no deal' they call it. Maintaining EU SM/CU integrity would mean mandatory third country border customs checks being put in place, as their hand would be forced. The RoI will suffer, as should the UK eventually if it all kicks off again, but it would have little impact on the EU26. The blame will be apportioned correctly by the RoW.
Yeah, that'll be the answer - just ignore the issue and it'll go away. How frustrating this border issue must be for Westminster. Here's an idea - why not draw a line on a map to ensure a unionist majority enclave and then leave them to suppress the rest for 50 years or so until you're forced to intervene? Oh no, you tried that already!..... and the RoW apportioned blame - how has that worked out?

This viewpoint may not be popular, but you need to recognize it - regardless of your stand on Brexit. Since the British created the border in the first place and have now caused the current issue by deciding to change the status quo, it is obviously a problem for the British government to solve, in partnership with others. All this bluster about "blackmail" and a treaty that potentially binds the UK to the EU forever is bollix - take a look at the current NI situation after several treaties and agreements..... The Secretary of State has the gift to call a border poll if, and when, they see fit - without parliamentary scrutiny as it's an inherited crown privilege. How "democratic" does that feel? How is that not potentially binding NI to the UK in perpetuity? - particularly when the government is in hock to those whose very existence depends on union. But that's OK, because it's an "Irish" problem and a British "solution".

I'm Irish and a nationalist - BUT, that doesn't mean I "hate the Brits", as some of out community would suggest - I just expect something better of the people I have lived amongst for over 40 years. Now, I hear people blithely say "The Irish economy will be impacted by Brexit" like some kind of reverse "project fear" - well, surprise, surprise, it's hardly the first time that a decision in Westminster has caused issues in Ireland, with the Republic treated somewhere between the recalcitrant child and an enemy state depending on the context from a British point of view. That's why Ireland is so firmly part of the EU - because, for the first time, it is treated as a partner state, not as "that island off the coast of Britain". As a nationalist, I recognize the issues in the North and don't see any way for it to be incorporated into the existing structure of the Republic - so, for the good of all involved, I'm happy enough to accept the status quo whilst there is some parity of aspirations and even-handedness across the "tribes". Were a poll tomorrow to give nationalists the majority, I would still want caution and long discussion before any transition. It's not what I want, but it's what I accept and I have the patience to wait for a solution.

This border issue is not just a financial or political problem - it will impact real people living on the border and on both sides of it - certainly financially but also in terms of quality of life and possibly endangering them once again. This time Britain can no longer enforce its will as it has before and the other side are not backing down - and it is that realization that is causing discomfort at Westminster and the temptation to close their eyes and walk away from the problem. But it's time for Britain to accept that its aspirations are limited by its responsibilities... as is true for all of us - so please don't suggest that the issue is "someone else's problem" and impose a fudge convenient to Britain. It hasn't worked before, it won't work now and it will just defer problems for a future generation - which, ironically, is one of the reasons given for Brexit!

Last edited by macliam; Mar 8th 2019 at 2:13 pm.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 2:13 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Yes I noticed that. May/Cox keep insisting that they are asking to consider their "my way or the highway" proposal and, quelle surprise, the EU are not buying into it. If I'm the EU I'd tell Britain piss off and leave with no deal if that's what it wants.
And what would the EU actually lose? Some so-called growth, which in actual fact would be absorbed by their SM. But they will gain the most enormous kudos from the past 2+ years. The EU will emerge from this as a pre-eminent force, with more than enough clout to look after its members.
I've already posted what the UK is destined for.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 2:47 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
Meh. Millions of people, despite being aware at the time of how damaging they were, repeatedly voted for Maggie Thatcher's policies that led to huge economic turmoil that directly affected me, my family and the community we lived in for a generation.
The difference being that we had and did take the opportunity to change the government.
Once we leave with no deal that is it.
There will be welcome return mat from the EU , the companies that leave, invest billions outside of the UK in response will be gone..
I am no fan of Thatcher but even before she was elected it was clear that many industries in the UK were on borrowed time.
She accelerated that change, their decline, her crime was not having policies to deal with the problems that were created..
Leaving without a deal hiding behind the " will of the people " is no different from the events of the Thatcher years, ie act without a plan to deal with the consequences.
The difference this time , is that Politicians can point to the " will of the people " as being the cause, nothing to do with them..
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 3:32 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Watchpost View Post
The EU does NOT "want the UK to sign up to an agreement that means they can never leave an EU-controlled CU unless the EU permit it". This is just one of the many anti-EU myths. The clause in the Withdrawal Agreement currently on the table concerning the UK's temporary remaining in the CU was put there at the UK's request, in the face of major reservations on the part of the r27.
Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Good explanation. Why did May put the backstop in if she didn't intend to agree it? Was she caught out by the DUP or was there something more Machieavellian going on?
Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Thank you. Nice and clear.
Just FYI, you know, for a bit of fact in the conversation.

Brexit: A brief history of the backstop

The backstop was born on 8 November 2017.

It entered the world weighing just 66 words, one bullet point of six at the bottom of a "working paper" circulated that morning by Michel Barnier's team to officials from the 27 member states.

This innocuous-sounding paragraph was the infant that would grow into the single most intractable source of conflict in the negotiations.

Off-the-record interviews with British, Irish and EU sources last autumn revealed a persistent dichotomy over the politics and methodology of solving the Irish border.

Despite the public harmony about no return to a hard border, when the negotiations began there was a fundamental mismatch over how to achieve it.

Britain was saying: We do not want a hard border in Ireland, and we will achieve that by having a very close economic relationship to the EU in the future.

Ireland was saying: Maybe, but we don’t trust that outcome, so we need to lock a solution into the divorce.

Ultimately, that ships-in-the-night dynamic meant that when bullet point number six was conveyed on 8 November, London was horrified.

Dublin's response was: What were you expecting?
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/...tony-connelly/
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 3:46 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Just FYI, you know, for a bit of fact in the conversation.
OK Cape, read your own links, and this time pay attention:

When the 8 November paper was finally leaked the reaction was explosive.

Despite the arcane language ("… including by ensuring no emergence of regulatory divergence … etc"), the meaning was clear. In order to avoid a hard border, and to protect north-south cooperation and the all-island economy, Northern Ireland, to all intents and purposes, would have to remain in the single market for goods and the customs union.


I've highlighted the relevant words so that you can figure it out.

The original backstop, covering NI only, was desired by the RoI and EU's negotiators.

It was extended to cover the whole of the UK by the British side, and it's this - the current form - that my message was clearly referring to.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 4:11 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Watchpost View Post
OK Cape, read your own links, and this time pay attention:

When the 8 November paper was finally leaked the reaction was explosive.

Despite the arcane language ("… including by ensuring no emergence of regulatory divergence … etc"), the meaning was clear. In order to avoid a hard border, and to protect north-south cooperation and the all-island economy, Northern Ireland, to all intents and purposes, would have to remain in the single market for goods and the customs union.


I've highlighted the relevant words so that you can figure it out.

The original backstop, covering NI only, was desired by the RoI and EU's negotiators.

It was extended to cover the whole of the UK by the British side, and it's this - the current form - that my message was clearly referring to.
Except your message wasn't clearly referring to that.

The EU put the backstop in as a way to help Ireland dismantle the UK and hold GB over a barrel. May did not let them split the UK, but didn't see clearly enough that the trap would not be acceptable to British MPs.
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