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Police state

Police state

Old Oct 17th 2020, 4:52 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
This is a pernicious line of reasoning that is given way too much air time. We simply do not know whether the impact of restrictions will be worse than not having them. Scientists are divided on it. And of course the real issue here is that the proof may not come until the virus has spread our of control. For example, were the virus to infect 20 million in Britain, and the consequent deaths and long-Covid, would that not be worse than the temporary economic/health impact of lock downs? Lock downs are simply a preventative measure aimed at buying time.
If the 20 million have the equivalent of a bad cold, I would say yes.

Lock downs are not a cure and should only be used in extreme cases with the situation being fully explained. Obviously it will be a judgement call, but allowing people to go to a pub if they have a substantial meal but not if they just want a drink does not pass the smell test.
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Old Oct 17th 2020, 6:37 pm
  #17  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
He set a bad example!!!!!!! He didn't break any laws. Your example is one of being biased against someone, should that be punished? Plus he didn't break any 'covid rules' look them up for the period. .
At the very least there was the "testing eyesight" trip which absolutely DID break covid rules of the day - as was officially confirmed - not to mention ordinary everyday existing laws in view of the apparent eyesight issues. Unless, of course, that wasn't true and that he knew his eyesight was fine
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Old Oct 17th 2020, 6:41 pm
  #18  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by Boiler View Post
I think the issue is the lack of logicality, currently watching my Football team, not much in the way of spectators but none of the players are wearing masks or keeping 6ft separation.
You mean after all this time that you haven't heard anything at all to do with evidence about being close to people for an extended period rather than running past someone or making a quick tackle and then leaving them more than 6 feet away? Perhaps if you spent less time trolling and read stuff.
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Old Oct 17th 2020, 8:22 pm
  #19  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by Boiler View Post
If the 20 million have the equivalent of a bad cold, I would say yes.

Lock downs are not a cure and should only be used in extreme cases with the situation being fully explained. Obviously it will be a judgement call, but allowing people to go to a pub if they have a substantial meal but not if they just want a drink does not pass the smell test.
Covid is obviously not a bad cold or even a bad flu.

Just because an inept government is devising inept solutions it doesn't mean Covid is a trivial disease.

​​​​​​The second wave is following on completely in line with predictions that the August and September "loosening of restrictions" would end in increased infection.
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 1:21 am
  #20  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by Boiler View Post
If the 20 million have the equivalent of a bad cold, I would say yes.

Lock downs are not a cure and should only be used in extreme cases with the situation being fully explained. Obviously it will be a judgement call, but allowing people to go to a pub if they have a substantial meal but not if they just want a drink does not pass the smell test.
That is the thing, most countries and the people in them have taken very contradictory and often illogical approaches. The next ramping up of a lock down is declared for say three days from now and everyone takes to the streets, bars, restaurants and the like, like an "end of season" sale. One minute everyone is safely adhering to the lockdown and social distancing rules, and the next people are jostling together in mass protests. Everything is all over the place and very uncontrolled. So while all this is going on people are not getting the urgent attention they need for other health conditions. People of all demographics and ages are at their wits end job, income and food on the table wise. It's all such a mess, and one has to wonder whether some countries are for various reasons incapable of taking robust and holistic measures to minimise transmission across their entire population. Maybe the best they can do is to formulate measures to protect those at greatest risk. But even for that, success will depend on those people and those around them making unpleasant sacrifices. But whatever - the solutions in place in most countries are simply not working - and often they're just compounding the problems. Each country's leadership needs to go back to the drawing board and carry out full and detailed analyses of the the problems they're looking to solve as well as the feasibility of all possible solutions, and with the benefit of knowing how things have gone (people's behaviours, etc) so far. It's a massive puzzle to crack, but we've seen how successful the mostly blanket approaches have proven to be and we know all about what repeating the same unsuccessful steps is equivalent to.
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 1:52 am
  #21  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by paulry View Post
That is the thing, most countries and the people in them have taken very contradictory and often illogical approaches. The next ramping up of a lock down is declared for say three days from now and everyone takes to the streets, bars, restaurants and the like, like an "end of season" sale. One minute everyone is safely adhering to the lockdown and social distancing rules, and the next people are jostling together in mass protests. Everything is all over the place and very uncontrolled. So while all this is going on people are not getting the urgent attention they need for other health conditions. People of all demographics and ages are at their wits end job, income and food on the table wise. It's all such a mess, and one has to wonder whether some countries are for various reasons incapable of taking robust and holistic measures to minimise transmission across their entire population. Maybe the best they can do is to formulate measures to protect those at greatest risk. But even for that, success will depend on those people and those around them making unpleasant sacrifices. But whatever - the solutions in place in most countries are simply not working - and often they're just compounding the problems. Each country's leadership needs to go back to the drawing board and carry out full and detailed analyses of the the problems they're looking to solve as well as the feasibility of all possible solutions, and with the benefit of knowing how things have gone (people's behaviours, etc) so far. It's a massive puzzle to crack, but we've seen how successful the mostly blanket approaches have proven to be and we know all about what repeating the same unsuccessful steps is equivalent to.
As I have already posted a couple of times here on BE, western democracies are poorly equipped to enforce lockdowns sufficent to really suppress transmission of covid-19, and clearly, seven months in, people across the democratic world are tired of the restrictions, and I am increasingly of the view that we are in the worst of both worlds - the restrictions are not really suppressing the disease but they are doing immeasurable harm to the economy, that is already going to take years to recover from. As someone noted here on BE, the debt situation of the UK is now comparable to the debt thatthe UK took on during WWII and that took about 60 years to pay off! Renewed lock-downs are going to push the economy into new territory for government debt and have profound consequences for the economy in the medium and loger terms.

Therefore I am now largely reconciled to the reality that, given what people are doing, and what you can persuade/ induce them to do, we might as well lay down some basic rules for masks, SD and testing, but otherwise allow most businesses/ sectors of the economy to open up. Clearly most people either object to the restrictions, or will try to circumvent whatever restrictions are attempted, and/or really don't seem to care, perhaps because they are just too stupid to understand.
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 2:36 am
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
This is a pernicious line of reasoning that is given way too much air time. We simply do not know whether the impact of restrictions will be worse than not having them. Scientists are divided on it. And of course the real issue here is that the proof may not come until the virus has spread our of control.

For example, were the virus to infect 20 million in Britain, and the consequent deaths and long-Covid, would that not be worse than the temporary economic/health impact of lock downs? Lock downs are simply a preventative measure aimed at buying time.
Buying time for what though? We are hopefully looking at an effective vaccine can be developed, tested and widely distributed so that normal life can mostly resume by 2022. In the meantime we know however that the lockdown led to a spike in non-COVID related deaths and that the the infection fatality ratio in England is declining. Depending on which source you use the chance of you dying from COVID if infected is now roughly 1 in 250. This will change drastically depending on your risk factors - sex, age, health - but let's assume that 20 million you mention represents a broad spectrum of the population. That's 80,000 deaths. Not great obviously but a huge reduction in fatality rate given that we have already had 38,000 deaths from 600,000 confirmed cases. Given that less than 1,000 deaths of those 38,000 occurred in those aged under fifty a blanket lockdown on all ages makes little sense if the more vulnerable are properly shielded, something that didn't happen in the spring.
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 2:40 am
  #23  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by BritInParis View Post
Buying time for what though? We are hopefully looking at an effective vaccine can be developed, tested and widely distributed so that normal life can mostly resume by 2022. In the meantime we know however that the lockdown led to a spike in non-COVID related deaths and that the the infection fatality ratio in England is declining. Depending on which source you use the chance of you dying from COVID if infected is now roughly 1 in 250. This will change drastically depending on your risk factors - sex, age, health - but let's assume that 20 million you mention represents a broad spectrum of the population. That's 80,000 deaths. Not great obviously but a huge reduction in fatality rate given that we have already had 38,000 deaths from 600,000 confirmed cases. Given that less than 1,000 deaths of those 38,000 occurred in those aged under fifty a blanket lockdown on all ages makes little sense if the more vulnerable are properly shielded, something that didn't happen in the spring.
The current covid-19 death rate in the US of 700-800/day, compared to the long term average for a populaion of 328 million with life expectaancy of 78 years, is such that 13 of every 14 people dying today died from something other than covid-19.
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 2:42 am
  #24  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
As I have already posted a couple of times here on BE, western democracies are poorly equipped to enforce lockdowns sufficent to really suppress transmission of covid-19, and clearly, seven months in, people across the democratic world are tired of the restrictions, and I am increasingly of the view that we are in the worst of both worlds - the restrictions are not really suppressing the disease but they are doing immeasurable harm to the economy, that is already going to take years to recover from. As someone noted here on BE, the debt situation of the UK is now comparable to the debt that the UK took on during WWII and that took about 60 years to pay off! Renewed lock-downs are going to push the economy into new territory for government debt and have profound consequences for the economy in the medium and loger terms.

Therefore I am now largely reconciled to the reality that, given what people are doing, and what you can persuade/ induce them to do, we might as well lay down some basic rules for masks, SD and testing, but otherwise allow most businesses/ sectors of the economy to open up. Clearly most people either object to the restrictions, or will try to circumvent whatever restrictions are attempted, and/or really don't seem to care, perhaps because they are just too stupid to understand.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-for-the-worse

We tend to ignore the non anglo speaking areas but this article gives an idea of what is happening elsewhere and basically reinforces your comments.



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Old Oct 18th 2020, 2:44 am
  #25  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
The current covid-19 death rate in the US of 700-800/day, compared to the long term average for a population of 328 million with life expectancy of 78 years, is such that 13 of every 14 people dying today died from something other than covid-19.
I still can not work out what the stats mean, that these people died of Covid or died and tested positive for Covid.
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 3:09 am
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by Boiler View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-for-the-worse

We tend to ignore the non anglo speaking areas but this article gives an idea of what is happening elsewhere and basically reinforces your comments.
The Guardian seems to have a paywall, now
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 7:27 am
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by paulry View Post
The Guardian seems to have a paywall, now
Mine doesn't.

Perhaps it's just you they're shielding from the inconvenient truth?
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 7:49 am
  #28  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by BritInParis View Post
Buying time for what though? We are hopefully looking at an effective vaccine can be developed, tested and widely distributed so that normal life can mostly resume by 2022. In the meantime we know however that the lockdown led to a spike in non-COVID related deaths and that the the infection fatality ratio in England is declining. Depending on which source you use the chance of you dying from COVID if infected is now roughly 1 in 250. This will change drastically depending on your risk factors - sex, age, health - but let's assume that 20 million you mention represents a broad spectrum of the population. That's 80,000 deaths. Not great obviously but a huge reduction in fatality rate given that we have already had 38,000 deaths from 600,000 confirmed cases. Given that less than 1,000 deaths of those 38,000 occurred in those aged under fifty a blanket lockdown on all ages makes little sense if the more vulnerable are properly shielded, something that didn't happen in the spring.
I'm all for establishing some trade-off parameters. If the IFR is a stable 0.4% and the deaths were of the order 80,000, that's may be a debateable number. If it's 0.8% and the infection runs to 70%, perhaps a different story. At this point we are 6 months into what could be an epidemic lasting a few years. We don't know if a vaccine will be effective (once discovered, and once produced); we don't know what proportion of the population will refuse it; we don't know if the virus will mutate; we don't know the impact of Long Covid. Under such uncertainty, a high suppression strategy makes sense.

Britain, Europe, America have already invited huge health and economic damage by taking a laissez faire approach in February and March. That's why we have tens of thousands of deaths (hundreds of thousands in the US) compared to mere hundreds in East Asian countries. Ditching suppression measures again will only worsen our situation.

​​​
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 10:45 am
  #29  
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Default Re: Police state

Originally Posted by paulry View Post
The Guardian seems to have a paywall, now
Does it? I don't think so.

That's News to me. Geddit?
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Old Oct 18th 2020, 10:58 am
  #30  
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Default Re: Police state

I don't see a Guardian paywall, but they are constantly badgering for donations. And that's after I even made a donation. There's also the guilt trip splash screen that reminds me that I've read 997 articles in the last year.
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