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Property market crash coming

Property market crash coming

Old Oct 29th 2019, 2:55 pm
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Default Property market crash coming

As long predicted, the latest property bubble in Spain is about to burst. Data released by the INE today show a 37% fall in mortgages granted in Madrid compared with this time last year. The decline nationally is 32%. New mortgage laws have had some influence; but the biggest factor is the elephant in the room: Spain is entering a brutal recession. Unemployment is among the highest in Europe, constitutional order has degenerated, and businesses are reporting a slowdown (I work with several). Meanwhile, 32,000 migrants have arrived to Madrid so far this year. That's via the international airport. And only Madrid.
So glad I put off my decision to buy property in Spain!

Last edited by SpMo; Oct 29th 2019 at 4:06 pm.
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Old Oct 29th 2019, 3:20 pm
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Smile Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by SpMo View Post
As long predicted, the latest property bubble in Spain is about to burst. Data released by the INE today show a 37% fall in mortgages granted in Madrid compared with this time last year. The decline nationally is 32%. New mortgage laws have had some influence; but the biggest factor is the elephant in the room: Spain is entering a brutal recession. Unemployment is among the highest in Europe, constitutional order has degenerated, and businesses are reporting a slowdown (I work with several). Meanwhile, 32,000 migrants have arrived to Madrid so far this year. That's via the international airport. And only Madrid.
So glad I put off my decision not to buy property in Spain!
An absolute load of old ollocks you did not buy in spain because you have not got the guts just another s*** stirrer. before you talk this rubbish please have the decency to live here first then judge. thank you sooohhh much

Last edited by Rosemary; Oct 29th 2019 at 3:57 pm. Reason: corrected quote
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Old Oct 29th 2019, 3:42 pm
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

Oh dear, we seemed to have touched a nerve here. Latest Economist and UBS figures (in the latter case from the beginning of this month) show market seriously overvalued.
And for your info, loser, I spend half the year in Spain.
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Old Oct 29th 2019, 4:09 pm
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

With the disturbances in Catalonia, disruption to tourism (Brexit/Cook's collapse) pending election and the possible general feeling of uncertainty it is easy to believe things are in slow down.

But construction is booming in Alicante province and they are selling, the Spanish IBEX is moving up slowly (under 9000 a few weeks ago) and the shops are busy.

I looked at INE and their report on employment was fairly positive, didn't see any headlines on mortgages. Young people are still wary of taking mortgages anyway given the last crash and long term permanent employment prospects. Older people buy with funds in hand (as I have just done).
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Old Oct 29th 2019, 4:39 pm
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

The European Commission released unemployment figures for EU in August. Spain is second only to Greece.
Swiss investment bank UBS just released its annual report on property price imbalances. It shows Madrid as clearly overvalued.
The Spanish INE figures showing the severe decline in mortgages YOY were released today.
In terms of business confidence, those companies that I am interacting with all year (Madrid, BCN, Murcia) no longer hide their concerns.
The government are desperate to keep the immigration debate out of the public arena. According to CIS' own stats, unemployment is Spaniards' main concern (56.9%). Immigration is a top ten concern. Yet TVE has chosen not to include immigration in the forthcoming general election debates. Climate change, is not a top ten concern, and yet will be included! The first debate —with parliamentary spokespeople— is on Friday. Abascal's party has stated the obvious - that more Spaniards care about immigration than climate change, according to the CIS figures. And it is obvious. Why would PSOE want to suppress such a debate??
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Old Oct 29th 2019, 5:00 pm
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by SpMo View Post
The European Commission released unemployment figures for EU in August. Spain is second only to Greece.
Swiss investment bank UBS just released its annual report on property price imbalances. It shows Madrid as clearly overvalued.
The Spanish INE figures showing the severe decline in mortgages YOY were released today.
In terms of business confidence, those companies that I am interacting with all year (Madrid, BCN, Murcia) no longer hide their concerns.
The government are desperate to keep the immigration debate out of the public arena. According to CIS' own stats, unemployment is Spaniards' main concern (56.9%). Immigration is a top ten concern. Yet TVE has chosen not to include immigration in the forthcoming general election debates. Climate change, is not a top ten concern, and yet will be included! The first debate —with parliamentary spokespeople— is on Friday. Abascal's party has stated the obvious - that more Spaniards care about immigration than climate change, according to the CIS figures. And it is obvious. Why would PSOE want to suppress such a debate??
​​​​​​
No different in other cities and even if prices dropped by 50%, I personally would still feel it's overvalued as I don't value cities. But as long as people want to live in cities and are willing to share, not much will change. If it's not 4 people sharing, then it will be 5 and so on. The same problems exist in every other European country and immigration is always a concern, so nothing new there.
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Old Oct 29th 2019, 6:36 pm
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by SpMo View Post
As long predicted, the latest property bubble in Spain is about to burst. Data released by the INE today show a 37% fall in mortgages granted in Madrid compared with this time last year. The decline nationally is 32%. New mortgage laws have had some influence; but the biggest factor is the elephant in the room: Spain is entering a brutal recession. Unemployment is among the highest in Europe, constitutional order has degenerated, and businesses are reporting a slowdown (I work with several). Meanwhile, 32,000 migrants have arrived to Madrid so far this year. That's via the international airport. And only Madrid.
So glad I put off my decision to buy property in Spain!
Think you could apply this analysis to nearly all European economies , UK included , except perhaps for the unemployment figure, world economy not in a good shape and most forecasters anticipating recession in 2020/2021, Germany being particularly hard hit as Chinese economy slows.
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Old Oct 29th 2019, 10:51 pm
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by SpMo View Post
As long predicted, the latest property bubble in Spain is about to burst. Data released by the INE today show a 37% fall in mortgages granted in Madrid compared with this time last year. The decline nationally is 32%. New mortgage laws have had some influence; but the biggest factor is the elephant in the room: Spain is entering a brutal recession. Unemployment is among the highest in Europe, constitutional order has degenerated, and businesses are reporting a slowdown (I work with several). Meanwhile, 32,000 migrants have arrived to Madrid so far this year. That's via the international airport. And only Madrid.
So glad I put off my decision to buy property in Spain!
If 32,000 migrants have really arrived in Madrid this year then that's only going to help push property prices up. That said, I do think prices in Madrid will fall a bit because we're at the end of a mini-boom and also I've noticed a few asking prices are now beginning to come down. As for a recession, yeah there's probably one on the way. The US and China have a trade war, and the eurozone economy collapses! Wasn't exactly meant to be like that was it? But at least the euribor should stay low, which means mortgages remain cheap. Let's hope the Spanish banks really did use all that bailout money to recapitalise and clear all the crap off their books since the last time the SHTF.
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Old Oct 30th 2019, 1:29 am
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by Loafing Along View Post
Think you could apply this analysis to nearly all European economies , UK included , except perhaps for the unemployment figure, world economy not in a good shape and most forecasters anticipating recession in 2020/2021, Germany being particularly hard hit as Chinese economy slows.
Spain's figures worry me more, though. It's economy is not robust enough to withstand what is coming down the tubes. Germany has 3.1% unemployment, UK 3.8%. Spain is 13.8%. Big questions about its ability to pay pensions within 10 years. And to the poster below, most of the migrants arriving to Spain will take more out than what they put into the economy. We are not talking about high wealth migrants. Most of those arriving from muslim countries are in Spain for the benefits. They have zero intention of integrating, have contributed to growing crime rate, and are a drain on resources.
Of course, you will see none of this on the state-controlled media.
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Old Oct 30th 2019, 2:55 am
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by SpMo View Post
And to the poster below, most of the migrants arriving to Spain will take more out than what they put into the economy. We are not talking about high wealth migrants. Most of those arriving from muslim countries are in Spain for the benefits. They have zero intention of integrating, have contributed to growing crime rate, and are a drain on resources.
Of course, you will see none of this on the state-controlled media.
Interested in the data that demonstrates your statements above, can you provide it please?
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Old Oct 30th 2019, 8:25 am
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

This appears to be yet another student of the school of daily mail. Never been, but "knows for sure" that all those foreign places like Spain are practically third world.

Thats OK, I'm happy if that mentality just stays up there in the bubble.
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Old Oct 30th 2019, 8:36 am
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Smile Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by SpMo View Post
Oh dear, we seemed to have touched a nerve here. Latest Economist and UBS figures (in the latter case from the beginning of this month) show market seriously overvalued.
And for your info, loser, I spend half the year in Spain.
Hi yes you did .Doom merchant and mongers irritate me no end. We are all old enough to have lived through up and down turns, and yes another one is coming we all know that but when. Perhaps you can gaze in to your crystal ball and give us the date so we can prepare.Are you legal in spain or under the radar.I do not wish to argue with you, but speculators give me a pain and i hope you enjoy yourself in Spain as much as we do.If you get your crystal ball out today maybe you can give me the football scores for the weekend thanks.From one loser to another
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Old Oct 30th 2019, 9:06 am
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by SpMo View Post
Spain's figures worry me more, though. It's economy is not robust enough to withstand what is coming down the tubes. Germany has 3.1% unemployment, UK 3.8%. Spain is 13.8%. Big questions about its ability to pay pensions within 10 years. And to the poster below, most of the migrants arriving to Spain will take more out than what they put into the economy. We are not talking about high wealth migrants. Most of those arriving from muslim countries are in Spain for the benefits. They have zero intention of integrating, have contributed to growing crime rate, and are a drain on resources.
Of course, you will see none of this on the state-controlled media.
A stronger economy on paper means nothing. Even if Germany had 0% unemployment, they still wouldn't have the ability to pay future pensions unless something changes. Most of the figures are incorrect and even people who receive unemployment benefits are classed as employed, just because they might do a course arranged by the Arbeitsamt. Right now around 9 million pensioners in Germany have less than €900 a month. If you look further, you'll also find that Germany has a lower home ownership rate compared to Spain. So overall more pensioners are already far worse off in Germany. I don't want to mention the recent votes in Thüringen. As you can see, even the so called strongest economies have challenges.
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Old Oct 30th 2019, 4:21 pm
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
This appears to be yet another student of the school of daily mail. Never been, but "knows for sure" that all those foreign places like Spain are practically third world.

Thats OK, I'm happy if that mentality just stays up there in the bubble.
"Daily Mail"? Why would i read the DM and what exactly does that have to do with Spain? FYI I read online versions of 3 Spanish newspapers daily.
"Never been"? I spend half my year there, work with Spanish companies, teach at universities and business schools, and speak fluent Spanish.

Last edited by Rosemary; Oct 30th 2019 at 4:30 pm. Reason: Removed name calling aspect.
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Old Oct 30th 2019, 4:31 pm
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Default Re: Property market crash coming

Originally Posted by SpMo View Post
"Daily Mail"? Why would i read the DM and what exactly does that have to do with Spain? FYI I read online versions of 3 Spanish newspapers daily.
"Never been"? I spend half my year there, work with Spanish companies, teach at universities and business schools, and speak fluent Spanish.
As you are a new member can I ask you to read the site rules.

https://britishexpats.com/site-rules

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