Property market crash coming
#1
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Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 11
Property market crash coming
As long predicted, the latest property bubble in Spain is about to burst. Data released by the INE today show a 37% fall in mortgages granted in Madrid compared with this time last year. The decline nationally is 32%. New mortgage laws have had some influence; but the biggest factor is the elephant in the room: Spain is entering a brutal recession. Unemployment is among the highest in Europe, constitutional order has degenerated, and businesses are reporting a slowdown (I work with several). Meanwhile, 32,000 migrants have arrived to Madrid so far this year. That's via the international airport. And only Madrid.
So glad I put off my decision to buy property in Spain!
So glad I put off my decision to buy property in Spain!
Last edited by SpMo; Oct 29th 2019 at 3:06 pm.
#2
Re: Property market crash coming
As long predicted, the latest property bubble in Spain is about to burst. Data released by the INE today show a 37% fall in mortgages granted in Madrid compared with this time last year. The decline nationally is 32%. New mortgage laws have had some influence; but the biggest factor is the elephant in the room: Spain is entering a brutal recession. Unemployment is among the highest in Europe, constitutional order has degenerated, and businesses are reporting a slowdown (I work with several). Meanwhile, 32,000 migrants have arrived to Madrid so far this year. That's via the international airport. And only Madrid.
So glad I put off my decision not to buy property in Spain!
So glad I put off my decision not to buy property in Spain!
Last edited by Rosemary; Oct 29th 2019 at 2:57 pm. Reason: corrected quote
#3
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Re: Property market crash coming
Oh dear, we seemed to have touched a nerve here. Latest Economist and UBS figures (in the latter case from the beginning of this month) show market seriously overvalued.
And for your info, loser, I spend half the year in Spain.
And for your info, loser, I spend half the year in Spain.
#4
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Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Costa Blanca
Posts: 3,143
Re: Property market crash coming
With the disturbances in Catalonia, disruption to tourism (Brexit/Cook's collapse) pending election and the possible general feeling of uncertainty it is easy to believe things are in slow down.
But construction is booming in Alicante province and they are selling, the Spanish IBEX is moving up slowly (under 9000 a few weeks ago) and the shops are busy.
I looked at INE and their report on employment was fairly positive, didn't see any headlines on mortgages. Young people are still wary of taking mortgages anyway given the last crash and long term permanent employment prospects. Older people buy with funds in hand (as I have just done).
But construction is booming in Alicante province and they are selling, the Spanish IBEX is moving up slowly (under 9000 a few weeks ago) and the shops are busy.
I looked at INE and their report on employment was fairly positive, didn't see any headlines on mortgages. Young people are still wary of taking mortgages anyway given the last crash and long term permanent employment prospects. Older people buy with funds in hand (as I have just done).
#5
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Joined: Oct 2019
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Re: Property market crash coming
The European Commission released unemployment figures for EU in August. Spain is second only to Greece.
Swiss investment bank UBS just released its annual report on property price imbalances. It shows Madrid as clearly overvalued.
The Spanish INE figures showing the severe decline in mortgages YOY were released today.
In terms of business confidence, those companies that I am interacting with all year (Madrid, BCN, Murcia) no longer hide their concerns.
The government are desperate to keep the immigration debate out of the public arena. According to CIS' own stats, unemployment is Spaniards' main concern (56.9%). Immigration is a top ten concern. Yet TVE has chosen not to include immigration in the forthcoming general election debates. Climate change, is not a top ten concern, and yet will be included! The first debate —with parliamentary spokespeople— is on Friday. Abascal's party has stated the obvious - that more Spaniards care about immigration than climate change, according to the CIS figures. And it is obvious. Why would PSOE want to suppress such a debate??
Swiss investment bank UBS just released its annual report on property price imbalances. It shows Madrid as clearly overvalued.
The Spanish INE figures showing the severe decline in mortgages YOY were released today.
In terms of business confidence, those companies that I am interacting with all year (Madrid, BCN, Murcia) no longer hide their concerns.
The government are desperate to keep the immigration debate out of the public arena. According to CIS' own stats, unemployment is Spaniards' main concern (56.9%). Immigration is a top ten concern. Yet TVE has chosen not to include immigration in the forthcoming general election debates. Climate change, is not a top ten concern, and yet will be included! The first debate —with parliamentary spokespeople— is on Friday. Abascal's party has stated the obvious - that more Spaniards care about immigration than climate change, according to the CIS figures. And it is obvious. Why would PSOE want to suppress such a debate??
#6
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 6,148
Re: Property market crash coming
The European Commission released unemployment figures for EU in August. Spain is second only to Greece.
Swiss investment bank UBS just released its annual report on property price imbalances. It shows Madrid as clearly overvalued.
The Spanish INE figures showing the severe decline in mortgages YOY were released today.
In terms of business confidence, those companies that I am interacting with all year (Madrid, BCN, Murcia) no longer hide their concerns.
The government are desperate to keep the immigration debate out of the public arena. According to CIS' own stats, unemployment is Spaniards' main concern (56.9%). Immigration is a top ten concern. Yet TVE has chosen not to include immigration in the forthcoming general election debates. Climate change, is not a top ten concern, and yet will be included! The first debate —with parliamentary spokespeople— is on Friday. Abascal's party has stated the obvious - that more Spaniards care about immigration than climate change, according to the CIS figures. And it is obvious. Why would PSOE want to suppress such a debate??
Swiss investment bank UBS just released its annual report on property price imbalances. It shows Madrid as clearly overvalued.
The Spanish INE figures showing the severe decline in mortgages YOY were released today.
In terms of business confidence, those companies that I am interacting with all year (Madrid, BCN, Murcia) no longer hide their concerns.
The government are desperate to keep the immigration debate out of the public arena. According to CIS' own stats, unemployment is Spaniards' main concern (56.9%). Immigration is a top ten concern. Yet TVE has chosen not to include immigration in the forthcoming general election debates. Climate change, is not a top ten concern, and yet will be included! The first debate —with parliamentary spokespeople— is on Friday. Abascal's party has stated the obvious - that more Spaniards care about immigration than climate change, according to the CIS figures. And it is obvious. Why would PSOE want to suppress such a debate??
#7
Re: Property market crash coming
As long predicted, the latest property bubble in Spain is about to burst. Data released by the INE today show a 37% fall in mortgages granted in Madrid compared with this time last year. The decline nationally is 32%. New mortgage laws have had some influence; but the biggest factor is the elephant in the room: Spain is entering a brutal recession. Unemployment is among the highest in Europe, constitutional order has degenerated, and businesses are reporting a slowdown (I work with several). Meanwhile, 32,000 migrants have arrived to Madrid so far this year. That's via the international airport. And only Madrid.
So glad I put off my decision to buy property in Spain!
So glad I put off my decision to buy property in Spain!
#8
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Joined: May 2013
Posts: 613
Re: Property market crash coming
As long predicted, the latest property bubble in Spain is about to burst. Data released by the INE today show a 37% fall in mortgages granted in Madrid compared with this time last year. The decline nationally is 32%. New mortgage laws have had some influence; but the biggest factor is the elephant in the room: Spain is entering a brutal recession. Unemployment is among the highest in Europe, constitutional order has degenerated, and businesses are reporting a slowdown (I work with several). Meanwhile, 32,000 migrants have arrived to Madrid so far this year. That's via the international airport. And only Madrid.
So glad I put off my decision to buy property in Spain!
So glad I put off my decision to buy property in Spain!
#9
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Re: Property market crash coming
Think you could apply this analysis to nearly all European economies , UK included , except perhaps for the unemployment figure, world economy not in a good shape and most forecasters anticipating recession in 2020/2021, Germany being particularly hard hit as Chinese economy slows.
Of course, you will see none of this on the state-controlled media.
#10
Re: Property market crash coming
And to the poster below, most of the migrants arriving to Spain will take more out than what they put into the economy. We are not talking about high wealth migrants. Most of those arriving from muslim countries are in Spain for the benefits. They have zero intention of integrating, have contributed to growing crime rate, and are a drain on resources.
Of course, you will see none of this on the state-controlled media.
Of course, you will see none of this on the state-controlled media.
#11
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Joined: Feb 2011
Location: Mallorca
Posts: 19,367
Re: Property market crash coming
This appears to be yet another student of the school of daily mail. Never been, but "knows for sure" that all those foreign places like Spain are practically third world.
Thats OK, I'm happy if that mentality just stays up there in the bubble.
Thats OK, I'm happy if that mentality just stays up there in the bubble.
#12
Re: Property market crash coming
Hi yes you did .Doom merchant and mongers irritate me no end. We are all old enough to have lived through up and down turns, and yes another one is coming we all know that but when. Perhaps you can gaze in to your crystal ball and give us the date so we can prepare.Are you legal in spain or under the radar.I do not wish to argue with you, but speculators give me a pain and i hope you enjoy yourself in Spain as much as we do.If you get your crystal ball out today maybe you can give me the football scores for the weekend thanks.From one loser to another
#13
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 6,148
Re: Property market crash coming
Spain's figures worry me more, though. It's economy is not robust enough to withstand what is coming down the tubes. Germany has 3.1% unemployment, UK 3.8%. Spain is 13.8%. Big questions about its ability to pay pensions within 10 years. And to the poster below, most of the migrants arriving to Spain will take more out than what they put into the economy. We are not talking about high wealth migrants. Most of those arriving from muslim countries are in Spain for the benefits. They have zero intention of integrating, have contributed to growing crime rate, and are a drain on resources.
Of course, you will see none of this on the state-controlled media.
Of course, you will see none of this on the state-controlled media.
#14
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Re: Property market crash coming
"Never been"? I spend half my year there, work with Spanish companies, teach at universities and business schools, and speak fluent Spanish.
Last edited by Rosemary; Oct 30th 2019 at 3:30 pm. Reason: Removed name calling aspect.
#15
Re: Property market crash coming
"Daily Mail"? Why would i read the DM and what exactly does that have to do with Spain? FYI I read online versions of 3 Spanish newspapers daily.
"Never been"? I spend half my year there, work with Spanish companies, teach at universities and business schools, and speak fluent Spanish.
"Never been"? I spend half my year there, work with Spanish companies, teach at universities and business schools, and speak fluent Spanish.
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Rosemary