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-   -   Pound slumps again.. (https://britishexpats.com/forum/spain-75/pound-slumps-again-785183/)

steviedeluxe Jan 25th 2013 9:33 pm

Pound slumps again..
 
Down to 1.17, wasn't it at 1.25 last year? :thumbdown:
Should we prepare for parity?

Domino Jan 25th 2013 9:45 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by steviedeluxe (Post 10506686)
Down to 1.17, wasn't it at 1.25 last year? :thumbdown:
Should we prepare for parity?

with what ?
the zloty ?

`

Ray51 Jan 25th 2013 9:48 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
To the beliguered ( according to Tories ,anyway ) EUro !
And to the catastrophic US $ , Ozzie & Can$$$$ , SA Rand , Yen , SwissGr and anything else of less self-important propaganda value...

Domino Jan 25th 2013 9:56 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
as I have said elsewhere, it is pimply faced "currency traders" trying to increase their bonuses before the end of the tax year so they can get a new car.

send them back to dealing in pork belly slices.

bobd22 Jan 25th 2013 10:53 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
Yes they have now turned their attention to the £. Just wonder though how the strengthening of the Euro will help the likes of Spain that are not doing too well? People those that can afford them, be looking at booking holidays around now, strong Euro may well push them towards All Inclusive in Turkey for their sun? We are back in the wait and see situation.

agoreira Jan 25th 2013 11:05 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
With the footsie up over 2,200, those with investments are sitting pretty. ;) It can drop all it wants as long as the footsie keeps heading north. Big decision now, cash in having done very well, or stay for the ride

jackytoo Jan 26th 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
Read that private pensions linked to stocks etc could be up 20% next year. Euro is strengthening, last thing the PIIGS need:ohmy:

steviedeluxe Jan 26th 2013 11:27 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by agoreira (Post 10506773)
With the footsie up over 2,200, those with investments are sitting pretty. ;) It can drop all it wants as long as the footsie keeps heading north. Big decision now, cash in having done very well, or stay for the ride

The Spanish Ibex is up from below 6000 points last July to 8700 points now. Doesn't stop us all losing money when we change pounds into Euros.
Still, Russian newcomers and the Spanish export growth may compensate for the loss in Brits spending :unsure:

missile Jan 26th 2013 11:46 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
I wonder if the average tourist looks at exchange rates before booking his holiday?

Fredbargate Jan 27th 2013 12:05 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by missile (Post 10508197)
I wonder if the average tourist looks at exchange rates before booking his holiday?

Possibly not, but I look at the rate and compare the cost of buying goods from Spain or UK.
I have to balance exchange rates against freight costs + the time factor.

bobd22 Jan 27th 2013 12:48 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by missile (Post 10508197)
I wonder if the average tourist looks at exchange rates before booking his holiday?

Probably not just complain that it is not as cheap as they thought when they get there. However the falling pound is now being highlighted in Newspapers and TV news and that may well make a difference.

bobd22 Jan 27th 2013 12:57 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
Euro strengthening certainly won't help the likes of Spain Greece etc exports, no doubt the £ strengthening last year affected UK's exports which had allegedly improved but are now allegedly on the decline although not cars seemingly although Honda are laying people off due to lack of sales, all seems pretty straightforward? Keep Calm and Carry On!

johnnyone Jan 27th 2013 1:13 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by missile (Post 10508197)
I wonder if the average tourist looks at exchange rates before booking his holiday?

It always amazes me seeing people buying their currency at the airport on the way out.

Lynn R Jan 27th 2013 1:15 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by jackytoo (Post 10508142)
Read that private pensions linked to stocks etc could be up 20% next year. Euro is strengthening, last thing the PIIGS need:ohmy:

I'll be interested to see the annual statement for my private pension fund when it arrives towards the end of the year then - on the last one, although the value of the fund had increased by more than 10%, the amount of projected pension I can expect to receive had gone down. Good trick that, isn't it? If annuity rates keep falling because of QE and increased life expectancy, better stock market performance will be negated.:frown:

agoreira Jan 27th 2013 1:36 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by bobd22 (Post 10508315)
Euro strengthening certainly won't help the likes of Spain Greece etc exports, no doubt the £ strengthening last year affected UK's exports which had allegedly improved but are now allegedly on the decline although not cars seemingly although Honda are laying people off due to lack of sales, all seems pretty straightforward? Keep Calm and Carry On!

As regards cars, Europe is the biggest outlet I think for Honda UK, and of course most of the EU is skint. So no surprises that sales are dropping. Spain´s sales of cars last year was the same as Morocco, down around 8-10%.
http://www.abc.es/20120601/economia/...206011119.html
Jaguar Land Rover on the other hand, is doing good, another 800 jobs to be created, sales especially to China are at record numbers. That's where the future lies, the EU will be bumping along the bottom for many years to come.

agoreira Jan 27th 2013 1:40 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by bobd22 (Post 10508305)
Probably not just complain that it is not as cheap as they thought when they get there.

I must admit we never do, if we go for a couple of weeks, I can't be bothered to shop around to possibly get an extra £5 or £10. I doubt the huge majority that are holidaying for a few weeks ever check the exchange rate before going, they'll probably use the most convenient.

steviedeluxe Jan 27th 2013 2:03 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by agoreira (Post 10508368)
As regards cars, Europe is the biggest outlet I think for Honda UK, and of course most of the EU is skint. So no surprises that sales are dropping. Spain´s sales of cars last year was the same as Morocco, down around 8-10%.
http://www.abc.es/20120601/economia/...206011119.html
Jaguar Land Rover on the other hand, is doing good, another 800 jobs to be created, sales especially to China are at record numbers. That's where the future lies, the EU will be bumping along the bottom for many years to come.

Actually various car companies are investing in Spain, like Ford, Renault and Volkswagen. So they see renewed growth soon enough in Europe..

"Volkswagen joins other carmakers in new Spain investments".
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/0...90M0YX20130123

johnnyone Jan 27th 2013 2:07 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by Lynn R (Post 10508340)
I'll be interested to see the annual statement for my private pension fund when it arrives towards the end of the year then - on the last one, although the value of the fund had increased by more than 10%, the amount of projected pension I can expect to receive had gone down. Good trick that, isn't it? If annuity rates keep falling because of QE and increased life expectancy, better stock market performance will be negated.:frown:

You can always go for income drawdown rather than an annuity.
When I was 50 I was going to retire at 55, now it looks more like 63!
For those not in final salary schemes the amount you need to fund a decent pension is staggering. A £500k fund at 65 will only get you around £30k a year.If you take out your cash lump sum that decreases proportionately.
It does raise the question of how much you need when you retire. Not being an expat, so with 2 homes to run etc., how much you need soon adds up.

Nigeljay Jan 27th 2013 2:26 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by johnnyone (Post 10508409)
You can always go for income drawdown rather than an annuity.
When I was 50 I was going to retire at 55, now it looks more like 63!
For those not in final salary schemes the amount you need to fund a decent pension is staggering. A £500k fund at 65 will only get you around £30k a year.If you take out your cash lump sum that decreases proportionately.
It does raise the question of how much you need when you retire. Not being an expat, so with 2 homes to run etc., how much you need soon adds up.

I'm on a drawdown from my SIPP. I've just had the compulsory 3 year review done and although the fund is keeping pace with the drawdowns, the reviewed maximum drawdown has reduced by around 40% due to the deterioration of annuity rates. It makes income planning challenging to say the least.

jackytoo Jan 27th 2013 3:53 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
As a tourist I never bother about the rate, it only matters if you are changing about 2 or 3 thousand per month. Don't think it will hit Spain's tourist trade but according to this the green shoots have withered.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...-be-necessary/

Domino Jan 27th 2013 7:06 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by Nigeljay (Post 10508437)
I'm on a drawdown from my SIPP. I've just had the compulsory 3 year review done and although the fund is keeping pace with the drawdowns, the reviewed maximum drawdown has reduced by around 40% due to the deterioration of annuity rates. It makes income planning challenging to say the least.

bet the commissions and bonuses don't go down by 40%
:frown:
if they did then perhaps someone would do something about it as the value of stocks and shares may be jumping up and down but it has never been a smooth piece of water but despite the Lehmans debacle over the years things have stayed relatively smooth.

`

steviedeluxe Jan 27th 2013 9:52 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by Domino (Post 10509581)
bet the commissions and bonuses don't go down by 40%
:frown:
if they did then perhaps someone would do something about it as the value of stocks and shares may be jumping up and down but it has never been a smooth piece of water but despite the Lehmans debacle over the years things have stayed relatively smooth.

`

The House always wins. :sneaky:

Bri and Katee Jan 28th 2013 5:36 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
Back in October we were looking forward to this year and the continued rise in the rate of sterling, we were going to pay off the euro mortage.


Today its going to be easier to bank the cash and wait and see

What has Cameron and the raving loony/tory party done? They have managed to oversee a drop in the rate from a nice 1.28 to 1.16 today. That means our mortage will cost us another 19.000€ to pay off:eek: Thanks for nothing!

johnnyone Jan 28th 2013 5:39 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by Bri and Katee (Post 10510790)
Back in October we were looking forward to this year and the continued rise in the rate of sterling, we were going to pay off the euro mortage.


Today its going to be easier to bank the cash and wait and see

What has Cameron and the raving loony/tory party done? They have managed to oversee a drop in the rate from a nice 1.28 to 1.16 today. That means our mortage will cost us another 19.000€ to pay off:eek: Thanks for nothing!

Look on the bright side. Those selling up and coming home benefit.
There are always winners and losers.

Lynn R Jan 28th 2013 5:44 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by johnnyone (Post 10510799)
Look on the bright side. Those selling up and coming home benefit.
There are always winners and losers.

But according to the doom and gloom brigade, everybody here is trapped in unsaleable houses, so there will be precious few winners!:rofl:

Fred James Jan 28th 2013 5:51 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by Bri and Katee (Post 10510790)
Back in October we were looking forward to this year and the continued rise in the rate of sterling, we were going to pay off the euro mortage.


Today its going to be easier to bank the cash and wait and see

What has Cameron and the raving loony/tory party done? They have managed to oversee a drop in the rate from a nice 1.28 to 1.16 today. That means our mortage will cost us another 19.000€ to pay off:eek: Thanks for nothing!

It was 1.15 when they came into power. It only went to 1.28 for a short time and that was entirely due to the mess the Euro was in at the time.

jackytoo Jan 28th 2013 6:03 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
An "expert" on radio Surrey today reckons sterling will fall to around 1.09. I am not sure, nothings improved in the eurozone, they just kicked the can again. We shall see, the UK needs a low pound right now, the Government will be pleased!

casa del sol Jan 28th 2013 7:15 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by bobd22 (Post 10508315)
Euro strengthening certainly won't help the likes of Spain Greece etc exports, no doubt the £ strengthening last year affected UK's exports which had allegedly improved but are now allegedly on the decline although not cars seemingly although Honda are laying people off due to lack of sales, all seems pretty straightforward? Keep Calm and Carry On!

UK imports more than they export, not good for inflation, 4p a litre on the price of fuel 3p they say is because of the falling pound, lose our aaa rating could that mean interest rates may have to increase?

Stock market rises, because the companies are doing well, making lots of money or has the stock market become a home for all that printed money to use for gambling and price speculation?

All fun and games.

bobd22 Jan 28th 2013 7:35 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
I have been there and done that and paid my euro mortgage off last year when it got to a rate that allowed me to do so with the amount of pounds I had set aside, it cost me around £7000 more than I had planned when I bought! Had I waited as you say until it got up in the mid 1.20's I could have saved a fair bit of that. However I also remember when I was paying the mortgage and had a monthly exchange which by bad luck transferred on the day the £ hit it's lowest and I got 98 cents per £! I preferred to pay it of when it reached a rate that I knew I could cope with and sleep at night. I know it's hindsight but when it got into the 1.20's why didn't you fix a forward rate? very difficult to be lucky enough to hit it bang on the high point and as they say once it's gone it's gone. If memory serves me right labour were at the helm when the pound it's lowest?

bobd22 Jan 28th 2013 7:38 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by casa del sol (Post 10511042)
UK imports more than they export, not good for inflation, 4p a litre on the price of fuel 3p they say is because of the falling pound, lose our aaa rating could that mean interest rates may have to increase?

Stock market rises, because the companies are doing well, making lots of money or has the stock market become a home for all that printed money to use for gambling and price speculation?

All fun and games.

Yes you are right of course but although when he was in opposition Osborne said "a weak pound shows a weak government" I would put money on him rubbing his hands currently. Hasn't the new man coming into the BOE muted allowing inflation to go up ?

Lynn R Jan 28th 2013 8:46 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by bobd22 (Post 10511091)
Yes you are right of course but although when he was in opposition Osborne said "a weak pound shows a weak government" I would put money on him rubbing his hands currently. Hasn't the new man coming into the BOE muted allowing inflation to go up ?

Well, if interest rates and inflation go up, that will be good for savers and those expats who have pensions that are increased in line with inflation each year. Another one of those "winners and losers" scenarios.

bobd22 Jan 28th 2013 9:46 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
Re interest rates IF yes that would be better for savers but if you end up with big inflation your moneys worth nowt. So no real winners

teuchterpete Jan 29th 2013 5:34 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
So it seems like, Heads you lose, Tails you lose, and if the coin lands on its edge, well you lose. Somebody must be making money when the pound falls if only those nice speculator people with their million pound bonuses.
Call me cynical if you like, but I have seen it all before. Sad thing is there seems little we can do about it.

bobd22 Jan 31st 2013 10:07 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
Without any bad news for the UK I see it has now slipped below the 1.16 rate. Seems that the money people have certainly turned away from the pound. Ok so the Eurozone in total PMI increased slightly mainly on the back of Germany, whilst the UK's fell slightly , however UK's still above eurozone overall.
I wonder if that is what Osborne has been talking about when he kept blaming UK woes on the eurozone, i.e. any good news for them would bring the £ down.

agoreira Jan 31st 2013 10:34 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by bobd22 (Post 10518794)
Without any bad news for the UK I see it has now slipped below the 1.16 rate. Seems that the money people have certainly turned away from the pound. Ok so the Eurozone in total PMI increased slightly mainly on the back of Germany, whilst the UK's fell slightly , however UK's still above eurozone overall.
I wonder if that is what Osborne has been talking about when he kept blaming UK woes on the eurozone, i.e. any good news for them would bring the £ down.

Whatever he's doing is fine by me, Footsie highest for years, up over 6,300, my investments have never been so high!;) But I'm always braced for a downward adjustment,;) been doing it far too long not to have experienced severe ups and downs! It's only paper money at the moment, not until it's cashed in can you say I made a great profit. I always had a target figure in mind, once it reached that I said I'd cash in, well it's gone way past that, I might regret not having done it!:fingerscrossed:

steviedeluxe Jan 31st 2013 10:53 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 

Originally Posted by bobd22 (Post 10518794)
Without any bad news for the UK I see it has now slipped below the 1.16 rate. Seems that the money people have certainly turned away from the pound. Ok so the Eurozone in total PMI increased slightly mainly on the back of Germany, whilst the UK's fell slightly , however UK's still above eurozone overall.
I wonder if that is what Osborne has been talking about when he kept blaming UK woes on the eurozone, i.e. any good news for them would bring the £ down.

Actually there is a lot of concerned writing abroad about the UK economy's poor performance. The big worry is that we don't have it in us to dramatically improve exports and pay our way even if the pound slumps further. Ramping up the London housing market and keeping the banks afloat with 300-400 billion bailouts+qe only works for so long. We really need to find growth from somewhere - remember the UK has to pay over 200 billion yearly in benefits alone. It's one reason I see Boris Johnson taking over from Cameron within 3 years - for all his faults Boris is the guy who will bring business back to Britain and get growth again.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...re-why/272556/

jackytoo Jan 31st 2013 11:14 pm

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
Stevie, it is not just a case of Euro versus Pound. The euro has also been rising against the dollar, not what the eurozone needs at the moment, especially the PIIGS. I think the UK is quite happy for a low pound right now.

Th UK may not doing so good but according to some analysts it's doing better than most European countries. House prices up .22% in January...normally a quiet month, more first time buyers, new mortgages up, car sales up, jobs up...and the most important the stocks. I am getting worried about the latter, not sure which way things will go. Time for a bit of profit taking:unsure:

jackytoo Feb 1st 2013 4:47 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
I bet the Spanish wish they had a weak currency. bad figures coming out daily. All these on the same day. They have no possibility of keeping up with the richer more successful eurozone countries.

Las matriculaciones de turismos retroceden un 9,6% en enero

La firma de hipotecas cae un 31,6% y suma 31 meses a la baja

El Ibex pierde un 2,1% lastrado por la banca

steviedeluxe Feb 1st 2013 5:57 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
Well the Ibex is up well over 30% since last July, so a slight dip due to the latest scandal isn't going to hurt.
And there have been plenty of good news stories about Spain this week, if you keep away from the envelopes allegations.
- Nissan seal their deal to build the new Almera in Barcelona (to add to other major car company investments in Valencia, Pamplona and Valladolid)
- Restalia to open up 450 new outlets in 2013
- Production companies reverse outsourcing and start to bring back to Spain
http://economia.elpais.com/economia/...87_526072.html
- the 50 euro autonomo deal for young entrepreneurs
- Spain Current Account surplus grows on Investment inflows http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...t-inflows.html

Don't worry, this is the year the economy in spain turns the corner, partly enabled by its fine export growth (weak currency not needed!)

But it is true that the weak pound will probably reduce Brits ability to spend abroad. Spain will have to hope growth in tourist numbers from Russia and home-buyers from the likes of Sweden continue to grow.
http://news.kyero.com/2013/01/31/swe...buyers-up-138/

jackytoo Feb 1st 2013 6:14 am

Re: Pound slumps again..
 
Most European and the worlds stockmarkets have recovered to more or less what they were before the crash...except for few of the PIIGS. Remember Spain's market hit 15,000...what was it today, 8200:blink:


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