rbs_gb

Yesterday we had PSOE indicating where all the current top brass will be placed in the various lists around the country. The list system allows the major parties to put their heavy hitters in "safe" places where they know they should win X seats on their list.
https://www.rtve.es/noticias/2023060.../2448734.shtml
Mas Madrid have already got behind Sumar, and Podemos/Ciudadanos have disappeared, so I've just done the very first British Expats Forecast for the election result 2023 in Madird. You can all come back in a few week time and tell me whatever.......
This is how it turns out if I make the following assumptions about votes:

Assumptions:
Votes are based on 2019 Election turn out reduced by 15% because of people going away in the summer.
Ciudadanos voters go 75% PP, 25% VOX
Podemos and Mas Pais voters go 100% Sumar
PSOE votes remain loyal to Sanchez

Results, first you have the baseline, using the figures from 2019 and adjusted as above. I've then shown the effect of what happens with minor swings from PSOE to PP which is the most reasonable assumption. PSOE should be guaranteed 10 or 11 seats no matter what in Madrid, so their main party members will likely be in the first ten on the list and then after that the risk of not getting elected and being in position 11 or below gets higher. The seats are worked out in each case using the dHondt rules.



Absolutely nothing to be taken too seriously, just me bored this morning waiting for a parcel to be delivered.

EDIT: Note that at a 1.2% swing, VOX grab a seat from PSOE, whereas at a 1.8% swing, the seat would go to PP. Fine margins make a difference, and so the message is VOTE VOTE VOTE or don't complain afterwards!

Ronnyone

Problem is I don't know anyone here who can vote

Ronnyone

I am interested to see if Sumar and Podemos will align together as one party. Basically this will indicate whether PODE will form the next government- there has to be sacrifices made by individuals in the left to get the unity needed. They have less than 24 hours now. If they don't do it the omens are not good for sanchez

rbs_gb

Yep, The coalitions have to be done and dusted by tomorrow, but the Podemos one is still far from sorted. If Belara goes in Sumar but Iglesias/Echenique/Montero decide to maintain Podemos as a unit, where would they go as a list to get a seat or even two? And it is clear that Yolanda Diaz is more concerned with getting her close allies further up the lists than some of her coalition partners. Even Mas Madrid seem to be a bit peeved at the list proposals. Whatever the lists are that come out in ten days time, there are going to be a lot of disgruntled politicians likely to lose their seats.

Ronnyone

And there lies the universal problem- only the best put their principles before their own needs. They often talk of unity, principles etc but when it comes to losing their quite cushy jobs you find they are not quite as noble as they would us to think.

rbs_gb

Wow, I've just redone that estimate, splitting the Podemos and Sumar vote into two components, with Sumar having two thirds and Podemos having one third. Other parties remaining the same, the effect on the seats is a clear example of why they need to work together and the disasterous effects for the left if they don't. This is how Madrid would look without any swing PSOE to PP

PP Seats 12 Share 30.1% Votes 866224
PSOE Seats 11 Share 28.0% Votes 806438
VOX Seats 9 Share 21.9% Votes 632159
SUMAR Seats 4 Share 10.6% Votes 286462
Podemos Seats 1 Share 5.3% Votes 154249

Ronnyone

So Sumar and Podemos ( and about 5 or 6 others) will now be an alliance on J23. This is good news for those on the left as it certainly simplifies things for voters. What's your take Rbs? You seem to reckon it will keep both P and S afloat

DLC

If you mean rented accommodation, there's that. With or without having first option on buying it.

I don't think we're in a position to lecture anyone about corruption... 2006 2013 2015 2016 2020 2021 2022, the UK probably just hid it better until it became blatently obvious at the end of the last decade.

DLC

The main thing is they are guilty of is being the Spanish Syriza and questioning the economic status quo, and that scares a lot of people.

That said, I can't point to any particularly communist policy. I think the closest was Renta Basica Universal... but it wasn't universal. Maybe my memory's failing me.

Lynn R

Something which is soon to be trialled (on a small scale) in England - under the present Tory Government, and I have yet to hear anyone describe them as commies. If AI has the effect on jobs which is widely predicted, then some form of UBI will become inevitable.

Universal basic income of £1,600 a month to be trialled in two places in England | Universal basic income | The Guardian

It is already happening in Wales for young care leavers, on a trial basis.

Basic income pilot for care leavers: overview of the scheme | GOV.WALES

rbs_gb

Er year, did you bother reading your own links? A total of 84 viviendas in the whole of Spain, and I gave up trying to find anything for rent. Not even all of those are built yet with scheduled build dates to 2025 on some that I looked at. I'm not comparing the UK and Spain which is what you seem to think. To state there is nothing like UK council housing here in Spain is not a comparison, it is to highlight that such things are not done that way here but is part of the reason why Spain has a social housing crisis. If you want to rubbish the UK that's your choice, we are living in Spain and are free to comment on what we find. Spain has around 400,000 people living in VPPA (not VPOs which is why I corrected you) which is probably about 2 million short of what is needed.

rbs_gb

Yep, early news here https://www.rtve.es/noticias/2023060.../2449070.shtml

Have to wait and see what they actually publish in the BOE. Don't be surprised to find the odd Podemos list turning up somewhere like Valencia with Irene Montero at #1........and in opposition to Sumar, unless a remarkable agreement comes out of these last minute discussions. There isn't too much detail being released so far as I can see, with just odd names dropped like Erejon as Sumar #4 for Madrid. Should be fairly safe there.

As you say, the left can only benefit as a group by using a single list.

Stingychips

With Sanchez gone , will this bring an end to Spains supreme squatters rights?.

Stingychips

My brother sent me that. He’s a Dr in England. He said if they bring that in he will quit his job and go on benefits. I think I would quit my job as well. £1600 tax free a month? That would just encourage mass unemployment on a huge scale. His words were that “this Tory party is not one bit right wing”. And with absolute barmy policies like that I would have to agree.

Ronnyone

Nope ......the okupas existed even under Rajoy.No one is going to change the law as it is pretty much the same in EU and UK. The problem is the legal system in spain which is too slow and understaffed. Okupas have to be served eviction notices just like in most countries but its not high on the legal list and inundated. If anyone will do nothing it's PP as they don't intend to pay money to create more legal staff