spainrico

https://english.elpais.com/spain/202...al-defeat.html

rbs_gb

Yep. The election is going to be a dirty campaign with mud slinging in every direction. Certainly a reason to be grateful we don't have five or six months of political campaigning until December!

If it helps, I've put together a little table that shows how the votes cast get turned into seats against the parties lists. Imagine a constituency (province in this case) has five seats, and there are ten lists which produce a top 5 vote like this:


The top 5 parties poll actual votes as shown in the column marked Votes. The process says that seats are calculated based on the number of votes cast for the list divided by the seats allocated so far plus 1. So the first seat goes to the party with the most votes, so PP get the first seat.

So in the column for Seat 2, the PP won seat 1, and their vote in seat 2 is now divided by (1+1) while the remaining parties vote is divided by (1+0). That means the highest figure in seat 2 is now PSOE, so they get seat 2.
In seat 3, PSOE have also now won a seat, so their vote is also divided by (1+1) for seat 3 which now goes to PRC.
In seat 4, the PRC vote is now halved and Vox is now the winner in seat 4.
Lastly in seat 5, the PP score is now the highest, so they get seat 5.

So the final election result would be PP have 2 seats, and the #1 and #2 on their list is elected.
PSOE, PRC and VOX would each get the #1 of their list elected
Podemos would not win any seats.

Places like Madrid have 37 seats, so that example table would continue for 37 columns for each seat, Barcelona has 32 etc. It's impossible for us as the general public to know how our votes will effect the final seats but it is a system widely used throughout the world where proportional representation is in place and it does mean that every vote is significant. It's the reason why the political analysts will be running 52 different spreadsheets, one for each of province, with different percentages of voter turn out, party list voter shares etc trying to guess the outcome.

EDIT: One other thing you will hear frequently in the coming days is that some parties will not present a list in a given constituency. Take the table above, and replace Podemos with Sumar. Imagine that PSOE persuades Sumar not to present a list and so Sumar votes go to PSOE. That would give PSOE two seats and PP one seat, so completely changing round the result and there would be nothing PP or Vox could do. All of these negotiations are the horse trading going on right now, months before the vote.

rbs_gb

On election night, you will see many of the analysts getting excited about how the vote in XYZ is very close and there could be a swing of a seat from Party A to Party B. This is another effect of proportional representation and "every vote counts". If the consituency above had eight seats, the table would look like this:


The analysts on election night would be talking about Seat 8, where as the votes are counted, Podemos would win seat 8 by a margin of 64 votes over PP, so a small number of podemos voters more or less would swing the seat either to PP or Podemos. So those 64 podemos votes would mean the difference between PP winning two seats or three seats.

Lagoo

Thanks that's interesting. So after the first seat won the party's vote is reduced by half, then by a third etc?

Regarding a party not presenting a list, it's funny that that's an acceptable, routine part of elections here, but Labour and LibDems not campaigning at full strength in certain constituents causes a stir.

I wonder how difficult it would be to explain the concepts of 'a wasted vote' and 'tactical voting' to a Spaniard?

rbs_gb

Yep, you've got the idea. The usual way to describe it for each seat is "number of votes cast for the party divided by (1 plus the number of seats allocated to the party so far)"

You described it perfectly as horse trading. I've been here since the 1982 general election so this will be my 14th. I cannot recall it ever being so hostile nor so complicated. The analysts and strategists that get it right will have earnt their wages! Logic suggests after the municipal elections that PSOE should not win, but if the strategists get it right, they could pull off another coalition.

One concept that I do find beyond laughable...... the election campaign does not start officially until 7th July and ends on 21st July.......... yeah right!

Lagoo

Well, here are the polls: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/

As at 30 May: PSOE, Sumar & Podemos 41%; PP & Vox 48% so it's difficult to see how Sánchez could win with those numbers.

Tactics: PSOE tweeted yesterday "El #23J: o una España de derechos, o una España de extremas derechas." (July 23: either a Spain of rights, or a Spain of the extreme right.) It's a pinned tweet so presumably this is what they'll be repeating again and again.

rbs_gb

I get you, but in the final count it is about the way seats get allocated. Percentage points are a guide, but you have to break that down into 52 different constituencies, then apply vote estimates and use the formula to work out the seats. When you do that, it looks a fair bit different. Here is one estimate from El Pais, taking into account the votes that were cast in the recent election, and the seats come out like this:




All conjecture of course and analysts playing with numbers, but if that were true, even with a high percentage of the votes, PP and VOX together are still a long way from a working majority even if you add PNV into the mix. The Basque and Catalan groups come back into play big time and could give the lifeline to Sanchez.

I'm still fascinated at how the Podemos/Sumar negotiations will end. Given that until recently, it was all about negotiations for "primarias" to sort out the list order, now they have to get a coalition together in record time and sort out a list in little more than two weeks.

Ronnyone

Yes I think POSE has decided to fight the campaign on this slogan alone. The problem is that PP are insisting they won't share power with Vox - so ultimately it comes down to whether people trust Feijóo enough to give him a big enough majority to either govern alone or more likely make arrangements with smaller parties. In that case the focus could be on those smaller parties winning seats that might be amicable to PP. However as was pointed our the system is such that every vote can count and tiny events can give either side advantages. Anyway , beats having to watch the world Cup!!!

rbs_gb

I think you're right Ronnyone. I reckon this is going to be the mud slinging election of all time with more personal attacks than ever before. There is also a video on one of the old chestnut themes, that Feijoo does not speak English........ Whatever happened to the days when politics was about what they were going to do for the electorate??

Ronnyone

I think you are right about the analysis in the sense that there is everything to fight for and therefore this really will be a case of taking the gloves off. So I am expecting one scandal after an other being created to discredit each side. And as you say there will, ironically , be little talk of actual policy and ideas. If fact I don't see any policies being formulated other than each side saying they care more about Spain than the other. The problem with Spain and politics is it gets very emotional very quickly and people react very spontaneously to things. We all remember how PP were chucked out of power over night after they tried to pin the Madrid train attack on ETA. Within 24 hours everyone was in the streets and the government were gone immediately. That I indicates how volatile the electorate can get if a spark falls in the right place.

Ronnyone

Your explanation of the system is really good. It demonstrates that just looking at vote numbers and simple pacts doesn't always result in wins and it is all about negotiating. And one form of negotiating is to convince certain parties not to present lists so as to sacrifice themselves to stronger parties they align with idealistically. . As you say though all this is hard to plan and you have extremely sharp minds working very quickly to help advise parties of the ever changing power relationships and various scenarios. Great fun for mathematical minds who like statistics but impenetrable for us less super powers.!

spainrico

The Guardian view on the snap Spanish election: Europe needs Sánchez’s gamble to pay off

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...droidApp_Other

rspltd

I think I prefer the British system where at least you ‘know’ the person you are voting for albeit they were chosen by a panel of few people. At least there is the opportunity to not vote for someone you don’t like or want.

Ronnyone

TBH its a fairly broad simple comment piece understandably for a UK readership. I think that some of the stuff provided here gives a much more detailed view of things. As much as I like The guardian they do tend to peddle the line that no one wants far-right groups when the truth is there are people who do. Some people certainly of an older generation do find issues like gay, trans, non-binary, immigration, cancel- culture alien concepts and therefore might side with people like Vox - it doesn't make them horrible, evil people. And then effectively prohibiting debate ( as the guardian often does in its comments section) just polarises things more. Anyway I hope people here join in the debate and provide information and views for the next few months as it really helps people connect with Spain and its culture.

spainrico

Thanks Ronnyone - good post.

So can I ask - what are the priorities for Expats in this election? A government that will.....

Maybe....
Get inflation under control
Climate control strategy
Holiday lets/rentals vs residential renting (and the laws controlling it)
Reduce taxation
Reduce public health queues
More support for Ukraine
and/or ??