ddtown

Once it's over, for better or worse? What will the long term implications be?

pacojones222

Grim................very grim, British who want to put up with a load of hassle and who are prepared to let the hacienda shaft them, after they have already been given the once over by HMRC will be few and far between

Dick Dasterdly

Difficult one.
Much may depend on how it ends.
A further slow decline followed by a further steady slow recovery or an increase in unrest and several changes of govt as preceded the civil war.
Either way, I don't see any particularly good news for permanently resident expats.
Probably best if they can hedge their bets in future rather than fully committing all their resources here.

rugbymatt

Did I hear right? Has one of the British banks in Spain started to limit how much people can take out? That's gotta be a worry.

steviedeluxe

Keep it up Matt. The scare mongering hasn't worked yet, maybe it will this year...

As to the question. Things looked a lot bleaker in the early 90s. No world leaders like Inditex or Fon or the football teams etc. And everyone claimed Bulgaria, Thailand etc were going to destroy Spain's tourist industry at that timd. Didn't happen.

There is an extremely bright future possible for Spain, which is why various car companies are making massive investments this year. And there is major growth in Russians, Scandies etc coming to the country. 3 areas that you don't realise are potentially huge in the future are graphene, shale gas and the trade with Africa. The big potential drawback however is the chance of the Catalans kicking off. If that happens expect to see something that makes the Balkans business appear like a walk in the park.

rugbymatt

Actually mate, I took the information directly off a friends Arsebook wall. They had experienced it first hand, not gleaned off the internet, not Googled, not searched.... they had actually gone into the bank in Spain themselves and been told by the bank... themselves.

steviedeluxe

I'm sure that if there were problems with a "British bank" we'd hear soon enough, either on Twitter or from various posters here. Spain receives over 55 million tourists every year. The banks probably hold enough bank notes in store I guess. If the government wants to extract extra income, I'd guess that home owners would be the easy target, rather than the Cypriot haircut route.

Dick Dasterdly

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...-the-euro.html

"Spanish banks are also limiting the size of withdrawals while some Portuguese banks are insisting that fund transfers are carried out in person. There are also rumours that German bank vaults are stuffed with euros from weaker eurozone countries."


The govt DID announce new restrictions on bank withdrawals in Spain not so long ago. I can't recall the exact details but I'm sure Stevie could google them in a flash if he so wished and I would imagine they apply to all banks in Spain.

Before they were brought into force I could walk into my local bank and collect whatever amount of cash I wished NO questions asked, NOT so now, any withdrawals over 2k and they are supposed to insist on a fresh photocopy of passport or other id document every single time and also an explanation regarding how the money is to be used, though how strictly this is being enforced I'm not quite sure as I find that much depends on having a good relationship with the bank staff.

The usual Spanish wheels within wheels.

I believe there is also a maximum cash limit in excess of that figure depending on circumstances, but I can't recall the exact details offhand.
I'm sure there will be others better genned up than me.

Pocaloca

How will we know when it's over?

Our national debt is 75% of our GDP. The interest is currently 33,261,351,813€ per year. Even if by some miracle the banking system becomes stable again, investors move in and the economy recovers to where it was in 2008, we will never be able to repay it. The "austerity measures" introduced to combat the crisis are here to stay.

Wages have fallen, by up to 25% in some sectors. Will they ever be restored to pre-crisis levels? We no longer have job security so how can we plan our futures, buy a flat, start a family? No wonder the birth rate is at a record low.

We have a generation of young people who will reach their 30s without ever having had a proper job. Now we are cutting back on educating and training them, to save money. What role will they be able to play in Spain's future? The brightest ones are leaving the country. Will they come back I wonder?

cricketman

The UK's debt after WWII was 180%, that got paid back

Wage deflation is a real issue, as in the continued over-leveraging of the banking and finance sectors which means property prices are way too much all across Spain still except for in the places nobody wants to live in.

Debt is fine as long as income grows and inflation can wipe out the amounts in real terms. Which of course is the problem, it isnt. Mainly because of globalization. The system is pretty screwed up

Pocaloca

But the final payment wasn't made till 2006 - and the interest rate was fixed at 2%. Not really comparable!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4757181.stm

cricketman

I was trying to make the point that national debt is not the real problem - it is just a symptom of deeper problems

The problem is that assets have been overleveraged across the board so there is no value in domestic investments within Europe anymore - and especially not within Spain which is more reliant on unsustainable economics (property and tourism) than other countries

And of course it doesnt help that two wildly opposed countries economically like Germany and Spain have to try and use the same system

Latest news is that the IMF are predicting a massive increase in Spanish debt up to and including 2018 (front page El Pais). Maybe I will forward that on to the owner of the flat I wanted to buy, but the owner said that the price was non-negotiable as its already a bargain at 350k

I told her to let me know if she ever wants to negotiate

amideislas

Germans tell me that Croatia is about half the cost of Spain for them at the moment. I reckon if Spain tries to suck too much bob out of the tourist industry, the 55 mil could be more like 10 mil.

Homeowners and anywhere else they think they can nick few bil would be likely targets. I think most of the "easy" money they could nick in a Cyprus-style bank-raid event has probably left Spanish banks by now anyway.

But I find this rather troubling; it appears that there's more money in all these so-called "poor" countries than in the banks of our saviour, Germany.

Germans poorer than European neighbours

steviedeluxe

That was actually my point.

That's been rebutted by this piece (although there are certainly a lot more wealthier people around than people realise~)

http://www.voxeu.org/article/are-ger...ans-and-greeks

cricketman

Yes I read that

It seems that if you take into account all assets then Spaniards are the richest people in Europe!

Amazing. Of course it is all down to property. Many modest Spanish families own multiple properties, one in the city, one in the village and one on the coast. And of course they never sell unless it will make them a millionaire!