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how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Old Oct 25th 2009, 11:19 pm
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

I know, it was simply a little utopia
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 6:56 am
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Originally Posted by chulo
(2005) Banks lend money, people borrow, houses get sold.

(2008) Banks crash, stop lending, people cant borrow, houses don`t sell.

(2010) Banks lend and made responsible for debt, people don`t qualify, houses sell slowly.

(2012) Banks make safe low profits, people unemployed, houses still not sold.

Guess what Banks and share holders win, govts change and people suffer.



Sorry forgot.

(2013) Banks become chinese owned, people get given state homes, everybody works for the Govt.
Ermm did the risk (read debt) not pass from the banks to the Tax Payer for the next 50 years ?
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 8:31 am
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

On a positive note, a spanish chap I know was saying that the spanish are really pleased that house prices are falling cos it enables their children to bu property again????????????


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Old Oct 26th 2009, 9:03 am
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Houses world wide along with lots of other assets, will stabilise as the world, but particularly America, recovers.

Unfortunately that wont help Spain as 1.50 to the dollar means Spain will struggle to sell ANYTHING that is dollar denominated. So the export market will rely on the Eurozone -not exactly a growth market.

At close to parity to the pound, Spain will also find it hard to sell to the UK anything that is sterling denominated. Which unfortunately includes housing.

It needs those idiots in the ECB to realise that their wish to replace the dollar as a reserve currency has a very substantial downside, and work to lower the exchange rate.

And as both UK and USA intend to build their way out of recession by depressing their currencies, that will be a long time coming.

Giving up control of your currency means exactly what it says on the tin.
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 10:01 am
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

House sharing would be great if it didn`t rely on humans.

I like your house.

I don`t like yours so pi** off.

No I`m having yours, you kiss my a**** .

War then follows.
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 10:13 am
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Originally Posted by jojojojojojojojojojojojo
On a positive note, a spanish chap I know was saying that the spanish are really pleased that house prices are falling cos it enables their children to bu property again????????????


Jo xxx
This of course assumes that either the bank of Mum & Dad is paying, or that the kids are working, and they can get a mortgage, none of which are easy to come by at the moment. Even at the depressed prices, Spanish property compared to wages, is still high. But the good news is property prices are still dropping in Spain!
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 11:05 am
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Pretty well all the independent forecasts out there indicate that prices will continue to fall for at least another 2- 3 years.

Whilst estimates vary it is generally accepted that there are a million plus unsold new builds on the market. Banks are currently rolling over what would be bad debts to otherwise bankrupt developers to enable them to complete developments which will in turn go unsold. This glut of unsold properties will take years to clear.

As these properties and an increasing number of reposessions come onto the market banks assett bases are being undermined. To date they have been trying to support the market. The scale of this downturn however threatens to ovewhelm them. There is every chance they will be forced into a fire sale of the properties on their books. If that happens the falls we have seen thus far will be miniscule to what is to come.

Can´t happen? Spain too popular, sunshine, etc? Just look what has happened in Florida. Some of the resort areas there have seen drops of 80%.

If I were selling a property in Spain at present I would do anything to shift it now rather than wait.
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 12:51 pm
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Originally Posted by lyric050203
I lost two sales last week, a Dutch couple and an English couple. Both knew nothing about the procedure and costs of buying in Spain. Both offered what I was prepared to accept, break even and cut my losses, but when the procedures and costs were explained neither of them could afford my apartment. Happens I suppose.
Inexcusable ignorance on their part in my view, sorry.


Originally Posted by HBG
It does seem strange, the Germans, Russians and Chinese are already here in numbers, but not in proportion to their much larger populations, where the Brits are still way in front.

I’ve got no idea why that should be – the British love affair with Spain. When and why did it start?
When enough people with a bit of cash had looked skywards in the UK enough times & seen nothing but grey (oh and of course a few pink elephants for good measure)

Originally Posted by brianc_li
*snip*
If I were selling a property in Spain at present I would do anything to shift it now rather than wait.
Trouble is anything might mean slash to a level requiring a loss - and buyers know they´ve got sellers by the shorts..... plus who apart from serious long-term investors is going to take a punt at the moment?
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 1:12 pm
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Originally Posted by fionamw
Trouble is anything might mean slash to a level requiring a loss - and buyers know they´ve got sellers by the shorts..... plus who apart from serious long-term investors is going to take a punt at the moment?
Indeed it is a dilemma for vendors. Do they take a loss of, for example, 10% now or one of 25% in a years time when they are really forced to sell?

Serious long term investors.... I do know a few.... are saying that as far as investment goes Spain property is out of the picture now for a generation. The costas in particular are over priced and over developed. With a cash strapped government and unemployment rapidly approaching 20% social fabric and infrastructure can be expected to decline. Crime will almost certainly rise.

Make no mistake, this is going to be a long hard ride for Spain.
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 1:20 pm
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Originally Posted by brianc_li
Indeed it is a dilemma for vendors. Do they take a loss of, for example, 10% now or one of 25% in a years time when they are really forced to sell?

Serious long term investors.... I do know a few.... are saying that as far as investment goes Spain property is out of the picture now for a generation. The costas in particular are over priced and over developed. With a cash strapped government and unemployment rapidly approaching 20% social fabric and infrastructure can be expected to decline. Crime will almost certainly rise.

Make no mistake, this is going to be a long hard ride for Spain.

Two thoughts on that: investors UK or Spanish or other? Cos the Spanish have a very different view of property to many Brits..... if you´ve got it, keep it (and/or aquire it!) Secondly, I wouldn´t ever consider the costas in terms of investing, with the possible exception of prime property prime address within prime location, unless in a boom such as has now passed. Inland, older properties, though, are less likely to be hit. Sure they´re being affected, but there aren´t thousands upon thousands of identical ones looking for a buyer.....
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 1:35 pm
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Other.... Hong Kong based but invests worldwide (And has the bank balance to go with it).

I suppose it depends on what you mean by ´serious long-term investors´. In the case of this guy who I consider to be one he expects a yield of 7-10% per annum on any investments. This is pretty well the norm in the international property market. Though not, I´ll grant you, in the last year. He has recently looked long and hard at the Spanish market and has decided it is a no-go area.

If you are talking about someone who wants to buy a property for lifestyle reasons then use it for at least ten years then I probably fall into that category. In that context however I woudn´t describe myself as an investor even though my plans are long term and I have money sitting in the bank when the right place comes along.
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 2:00 pm
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Originally Posted by brianc_li
Indeed it is a dilemma for vendors. Do they take a loss of, for example, 10% now or one of 25% in a years time when they are really forced to sell?

Serious long term investors.... I do know a few.... are saying that as far as investment goes Spain property is out of the picture now for a generation. The costas in particular are over priced and over developed. With a cash strapped government and unemployment rapidly approaching 20% social fabric and infrastructure can be expected to decline. Crime will almost certainly rise.

Make no mistake, this is going to be a long hard ride for Spain.
Whilst I agree with the sentiment, for some it just can't happen. I have a development property. It's a 550 sq. metre town house with plans to convert to 6 or 7 apartments. It is on the market for a very low figure but there just aren't ANY buyers! We have told the agents that we will consider ANY price - no one has called!!!
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 2:28 pm
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Originally Posted by snikpoh
It is on the market for a very low figure but there just aren't ANY buyers! We have told the agents that we will consider ANY price - no one has called!!!
Of course there are buyers, always have been, always will. They are simply not prepared to part with the kind of money that is still being asked. The particular problem in the Spanish market at present is that the expectations of most of those selling property, together with a good portion of those who work in the industry are still unrealistically high. Many seem to think that a discount of 25% from 2007 peak represents ´a bargain´. It doesn´t.

If you will consider ANY price why not put the property up for auction? Companies such as Direct Auctions would handle such a sale. Trouble is you´ll probably find that the true market price is a lot lower than you think.
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 2:39 pm
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

Originally Posted by brianc_li
Of course there are buyers, always have been, always will. They are simply not prepared to part with the kind of money that is still being asked. The particular problem in the Spanish market at present is that the expectations of most of those selling property, together with a good portion of those who work in the industry are still unrealistically high. Many seem to think that a discount of 25% from 2007 peak represents ´a bargain´. It doesn´t.

If you will consider ANY price why not put the property up for auction? Companies such as Direct Auctions would handle such a sale. Trouble is you´ll probably find that the true market price is a lot lower than you think.
I suppose the old adage 'Something's only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it' also has 2 flip sides: It's not even worth that if the vendor won't accept it, or it could be worth more than that if the vendor is prepared to sit it out for a (mega) bit of luck.........
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Old Oct 26th 2009, 3:11 pm
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Default Re: how can the house market possibly get out of this lock?

You have hit the nail on the head Fiona.

The market is pretty well dead at present purely because there is a stand off between vendors and purchasers. The former are asking for more than the latter are prepared to part with.

Places will eventually start shifting but only once their price has fallen sufficiently. How much further they have to fall is the big question. My guess is that they´ll need to drop another 30% or so, to about half their Dec 2007 peak, before the market develops some traction.
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