Hornets_Nest

As I said above Brexit can be started without parliament vote, government lawyers say:

Brexit can be started without parliament vote, government lawyers say | Politics | The Guardian

Fred James

Of course government lawyers say that, but other lawyers disagree so it will end up in the courts.

Incidentally, the bookies are only giving 4/1 on Brexit actually happening.

Bo S

I think the quote is time dated and for the invoke to have happened by March 2017 for those odds?

snikpoh

What a farce - perhaps if the electorate knew that their votes don't really mean anything .....


Maybe I won't bother voting in future if the final decision is made by others anyway!

TheResolver

My money is on our not leaving the EU for the following reasons:-

1. We cannot leave legally without both Houses of Parliament passing a new Act to repeal/amend the European Communities Act 1972.

2. Most MPs are Remainers.

3. The outright leading candidate to be elected as the new Conservative leader and Prime Minister (Theresa may) is a Remainer.

4. At no time was the Referendum ever more than advisory. Cameron made a promise too act on it but that was purely a ruse to win last year's election. As he is now exiting himself from the role his promise, as with all manifesto promises , is worthless.

5. Increasingly Brexiteers I speak to are angry that they were misled by Gove/Johnson. Johnson, for example, is now arguing to rejoin the Single market but the EU have made it crystal clear that they will only allow us in on the basis we agree to continue free movement of people, which Brexiteers understood pre-Refermdum from Johnson would be curtailed. Note, he didn't specifiy his Single Market access requirement before the Referendum.

6. As the damage to the economy and need to rack up austerity/jobs lost as companies move out/planned inward investment drops will take a hold (we are already at all time sterling low - Brexiteers realising right now how much more expensive their summer holiday is costing - and lost all AAA rating status just on the vote and well before an actual exit) more and mother Brexiteers will change their minds and press their MPs to vote down the Act. The passage of the Act can only occur if enough Remain MPs fear so much that their constituents are still for Brexit that they will lose their seats at the next general election. Gradually that fear will reduce.

This was a crazy way to hold a Referendum (and as I say primarily cheap election trick) . To ask people to vote to leave without asking them to condition that wish on one or other of the five exit doors the EU gives us for the general type of post exit arrangement with a sixth default door we are kicked out of with no deal at all after 2 years from the Article 50 trigger is pulled is just economic Russian Roulette.

Fred James

I totally agree - it's not going to happen.

bobd22

I would not be too sure on it not happening if it doesn't I fear there will be serious trouble on the streets of the uk

lutonlad

My hope is that the terms of Brexit will be a step up from what Cameron negotiated. I don't think that he played his cards very well (not poker at any rate). If he had, we may have avoided this mess.

Fred James

You are right, Cameron achieved nothing significant. Now that the EU know that the UK is serious about leaving, it puts the UK in a strong position to negotiate changes to the rules that might be acceptable to the UK population.

At the moment Junkers is taking a very strong anti negotiating stance. Merkel, and many others, want to get rid of him and to start talking sense.

I really think there is a chance of serious negotiation before we pull the plug. Given the right concessions from the EU, the UK could well have another referendum and agree to stay and at the same time, the EU might at last recognise that federalism, whilst a good objective, it totally impossible with 28 diverse members.

Rosemary

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Bo S

If it is not going to happen then everyone should be going long on sterling and certain equities, short on dollar earning equities, gold and silver . The opposite is happening. Should that change then there is a serious amount of money to be made.

cricketman

Absolutely. Banks with a large stake in UK-EU trade also will have a large upside in the mid term

scot47

Our masters put on the referendum and had no plan for Exit or Stay !. Rather like their interventions in Iraq and Syria ! If UK is outside EU there MAY be negotiations on continuing use of EHIC for
UK citizens in EU member states. No answers to this question yet. It is all about negotiation between Whitehall and Brussels !

rspltd

and Brussels refused to have any sort of discussion until we had made a decision!! I think they need to be very careful how they treat us because all the other countries are watching and if they are seen to be wanting to put the knife in, there will be other countries to follow. Things should get better once Juncker has gone.

bobd22

I believe if we come out of EU but become part of the EEA then we would retain the EHIC and even possibly health care on reaching state pension age. However problem is EEA means accepting freedom of movement etc and paying in which brings you back to what some out the vote? No freedom of movement and overall cost so can't see how government could realistically win the uk public over with that. Of course EU could make us a special case but if they did that why should other countries not want out and the same deal? All seems to be a catch 22 situation to me.