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-   -   GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas? (https://britishexpats.com/forum/spain-75/guess-timating-ce-population-variation-any-ideas-799879/)

big wheels Jun 12th 2013 11:29 am

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 
My only experience of ce is after reading so much about it on here and because we were in the area, we decided to call in and drive around it last May just to have a nosey.
During half an hour we saw 3 golfers getting into a people carrier in the golf club car park and that was it.

Where was everyone?

EsuriJohn Jun 12th 2013 2:25 pm

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Originally Posted by big wheels (Post 10754149)
My only experience of ce is after reading so much about it on here and because we were in the area, we decided to call in and drive around it last May just to have a nosey.
During half an hour we saw 3 golfers getting into a people carrier in the golf club car park and that was it.

Where was everyone?

Watching you from behind the net curtains. Four Local Police turned up last night at 22.30 because they had reports that people were gathering together and enjoying themselves!!! :ohmy:

Carol&John Jun 12th 2013 6:02 pm

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Originally Posted by John & Kath (Post 10754321)
Watching you from behind the net curtains. Four Local Police turned up last night at 22.30 because they had reports that people were gathering together and enjoying themselves!!! :ohmy:

:D That'll have been the Wednesday Club.

BILL AND CLAIRE Jun 12th 2013 6:40 pm

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Originally Posted by John & Kath (Post 10754321)
Watching you from behind the net curtains. Four Local Police turned up last night at 22.30 because they had reports that people were gathering together and enjoying themselves!!! :ohmy:

John ..What are you doing up at 3.25am ? Were you looking for your Logo ?Cause it seems to be missing.:(:(:(:(

Jon-Bxl Jun 12th 2013 6:55 pm

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Originally Posted by MikeJ (Post 10753702)
I think your number may a bit low, for example on Marina there are 7 manzanas and each manzana has an average 150 apartments = 1050 apartments ie 3 x your estimate.
[Although if you multiply all your numbers by 3 you come to a number very similar to Jon's back-of-an-envelope guesstimate ]

So what if we plump for 1000 in the winter and 4000 in the summer? Rounding down my numbers??

Gut feel tells me that 2000 in the summer is too low... which dividing by 3 would mean about 700 in low season... seems low too

I do remember when there were events in Jags even in the low season he was still busy....

Jon

Here's my 'back of envelope' reasoning:

CE = 6000 residences, 50% sold = 3000.
High season: minimum 2 adults per residence and say fully occupied. 6000 Adults.
Low season: say at the weekends a third of that = 2000

Take off a bit and lets say:

Even in low season we have 1500-2000 adults in CE.
5000-7000 Adults in high season.

Mark Donna (thanks)

Area. Number built. Percentage sold. Total
Lomas. 290. 80%. 232
Nara. 260. 70%. 182
Marina. 300. 75%. 225
Rago 2. 300. 80%. 240
Las encinas. 300. 60%. 180
Las Colinas. 300. 50%. 150

The rest. 500. 10%. 50
Plots. 600. 5%. 30

So my guess is around 1200-1300 sold so with 80% occupancy and 2 adults per household about 2000adults in the summer

EsuriJohn Jun 12th 2013 7:24 pm

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Originally Posted by Carol&John (Post 10754487)
:D That'll have been the Wednesday Club.

Oh did you not know that convened last Wednesday for the first open-mike night at the shop and the second was last night 'till we were rudely interrupted by four big policemen with night sticks and pistols. However we had sorted the agenda for the Friday club so we faded into the night!

EsuriJohn Jun 12th 2013 7:26 pm

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Originally Posted by BILL AND CLAIRE (Post 10754506)
John ..What are you doing up at 3.25am ? Were you looking for your Logo ?Cause it seems to be missing.:(:(:(:(

Big brother is watching but he sleeps between 02.00 and 05.00!

mark donna Jun 12th 2013 7:49 pm

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 
Jon if the 6000 (residencies) figure was right then somewere along the line we are way out, if we said for the houses lomas 290,jara 240,vista 300 golf 1 30,over the road from vista 50 back of Colinas 50, equals 960, private plots 600
we are at 1600 houses/plots which would only leave 4400 apartments, so if marina has 1100 the other 3 ragos 2500 sea and sun 600, tasa looked to be the biggest so lets say 1000 golf 2 400, so with the houses/plots that totals over 7000 without the other developments which have not been started somewhere along the line we are overestimating the number of apartments

Jon-Bxl Jun 12th 2013 7:56 pm

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Originally Posted by mark donna (Post 10754587)
Jon if the 6000 (residencies) figure was right then somewere along the line we are way out, if we said for the houses lomas 290,jara 240,vista 300 golf 1 30,over the road from vista 50 back of Colinas 50, equals 960, private plots 600
we are at 1600 houses/plots which would only leave 4400 apartments, so if marina has 1100 the other 3 ragos 2500 sea and sun 600, tasa looked to be the biggest so lets say 1000 golf 2 400, so with the houses/plots that totals over 7000 without the other developments which have not been started somewhere along the line we are overestimating the number of apartments

Thanks Mark, this is really interesting....you are right, the numbers arent adding up. I've always gone with 6000 for the CE development to include villa plots.... but that was just a number, that I never really checked out...

Mark you have a much better handle on this than me, can anyone add any input to this please?

John and Kath, you were always really up to date with these facts, any ideas?

Thanks
Jon

PS I just googled this http://www.luzliving.com/area-reviews/costa-esuri 6000 properties.... not sure of the date but a lot less than 50% completed and of those not all are sold..... maybe a good starting point.. no commercial interest with the link just using the info

Frank Bourne Jun 13th 2013 8:07 am

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 
Hey Steve and Pat, you have given me another loophole for the buses success I could try to make it a POST BUS but seriously I have a plan B as a back up if Mr Mayor says no but due too various reasons I will keep plan B to myself till after the meeting then all will be revealed.

BILL AND CLAIRE Jun 13th 2013 8:19 am

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Originally Posted by Frank Bourne (Post 10755738)
Hey Steve and Pat, you have given me another loophole for the buses success I could try to make it a POST BUS but seriously I have a plan B as a back up if Mr Mayor says no but due too various reasons I will keep plan B to myself till after the meeting then all will be revealed.

Frank,
you sure your not eating to much cheese..;):D

EsuriJohn Jun 13th 2013 8:31 am

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Originally Posted by Frank Bourne (Post 10755738)
Hey Steve and Pat, you have given me another loophole for the buses success I could try to make it a POST BUS but seriously I have a plan B as a back up if Mr Mayor says no but due too various reasons I will keep plan B to myself till after the meeting then all will be revealed.

Don't know if such a thing exists in Spain not like the Highlands or Germany but they do have little cast iron boxes on poles and we asked for one of those at say the GC roundabout but of course that falls between the town hall and Correos so again the answere was no or no answere!

Carol&John Jun 13th 2013 6:12 pm

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 
"Yeerz, too match cheez last night, Sergei."
What is goingong here?:D


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