GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

We were trying to 'GUESStimate' the ADULT population of CE over the year. Anyone got any other ideas or guesstimates?

Often tourist locations can easily triple the population in high season. Also in CE we do have a weekend uplift from local people coming over (e.g Seville residents). This uplift is all year round I think - though more in summer. Of course there is a rotation of holidaymakers - but that still means we have a 'footfall' year round.

Here's my 'back of envelope' reasoning:

CE = 6000 residences, 50% sold = 3000.
High season: minimum 2 adults per residence and say fully occupied. 6000 Adults.
Low season: say at the weekends a third of that = 2000

Take off a bit and lets say:

Even in low season we have 1500-2000 adults in CE.
5000-7000 Adults in high season.

I was told that this may well be too low... but we couldn't really say with any surety.

What do you think. Any ideas?

Thanks
Jon

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Maybe you should take up golf as I find thinking about it completely occupies Mike's mind, except on Quiz Night of course ;) Bryony

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

:) Thanks! That proves 'the old adage' is wrong - all men DONT have a 1-track mind :) :)

See you around CE,

Jon

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

I would think that you are quite close with your 'back of an envelope' guesstimate. Hopefully, whatever the population is, it is enough to sustain the much needed and highly anticipated bus service if it gets the green light.

Any good news on the commercial centre as you enter esuri or the hotel?

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

No news on the hotel, and the only good news re the Commercial Centre would be if they decided to knock it down :). Can't see it ever being occupied and the space would be better used as a pitch & putt course/bowling green/tennis courts/park, the options are endless. Bryony

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Now I like the bowling green idea; it adds another dimension to Esuri and I am sure that would be popular.

I did chuckle about your earlier post, to Jon, suggesting that he should take up golf as he needs someting to occupy his mind. Poor Catherine - she will develop that same glazed-eye look that we have as we hear more tales from the golf course!

Pat ;)

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

The reason I asked for the guesstimate is that in the last couple of days some interesting new possibilities have been born. Aside from the bus.

Very early days yet - and it could all be pipe-dreams, as we have all experienced here. But the first thing any new business would want to know is the 'market size', 'footfall' and timing etc. (IMHO)

With this thread I would like to offer this info to any prospective business people interested in CE. Note the plurals in this post.

More will come out very soon... I am sure... but as I mentioned in my 'green shoots' thread... dare I begin to hope!?? Or should I have learned my lesson by now.

I am a glutton for punishment, so am being hopeful once again!
:fingerscrossed:

Thanks

Jon

Jon

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Hi Pat.... Do I sound bored!? :)

Someone was talking the other day about having Petanque pitches by the clubhouse. I dont know if that is a rumour or even feasible, but we all thought it was a good idea.....

There are MANY places we could put them as well.... and might eb a good laugh, I didnt realise how many Spanish play the game! Of course the French are hooked on it and its a lot of fun. Something cheap to do... and adds some nice value to CE.

Jon

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Hi Jon

Your mind is far too active to ever get bored! Anything that adds value to the living experince on Esuri has to be welcomed, be that other sports facilities, extra bars / restaurants. Of course, what would be really handy is a post box so we don't have to trail allthe way into town to post a letter....

Like Carol, we always enjoy your restaurant "reviews" and have had many memorable meals as a result. Keep up the good work!

Pat :thumbsup:

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

We toured Morocco last Feb and there were a couple of French motorhomers in the group they had everyone playing it. From in the desert to any old bit of rough ground at a campsite its great!!

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Yes the older ones from the north come down every winter and great competitions are held in front of the Barcelo in Isla Cristina.

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Wouldnt it be great if we could offer some 'free-rental' land to an enterprising Spanish person. (S)He sorts out flattening the land and putting the gravel in and puts in a kiosko, like in town. Not a huge up-front investment. And sells drinks etc whilst people play petanque. Others sit around and chat, plastic chairs nothing fancy. As long as he is there the land is rent free. I wonder if there are plots we can use for that like the ones given to the town hall? Maybe a project for CERA?

Just a thought...

Jon

Anyway back to topic.... do the numbers above for the 'guesstimate' seem right to everybody? Got one yes so far....

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Lets go through all the areas with approx built And sold (very approx)

Area. Number built. Percentage sold. Total
Lomas. 290. 80%. 232
Nara. 260. 70%. 182
Marina. 300. 75%. 225
Rago 2. 300. 80%. 240
Las encinas. 300. 60%. 180
Las Colinas. 300. 50%. 150

The rest. 500. 10%. 50
Plots. 600. 5%. 30

So my guess is around 1200-1300 sold so with 80% occupancy and 2 adults per household about 2000adults in the summer

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

Maybe they could fill in the pool at Jags (must get another description) as a petanque pitch :)

Re: GUESS-timating CE population variation, any ideas?
 

I think your number may a bit low, for example on Marina there are 7 manzanas and each manzana has an average 150 apartments = 1050 apartments ie 3 x your estimate.
[Although if you multiply all your numbers by 3 you come to a number very similar to Jon's back-of-an-envelope guesstimate ]