In my opinion if we leave the EU property prices in Gibraltar will fall. At the same time I also think property prices in the UK will also fall. I shall proceed with my UK sale even if we decide not to continue after the referendum. Plan B is to rent for 12 months with cash in the bank ready to buy when we feel comfortable to do so.

Prices for good quality housing are clearly driven by demand, mainly from employees of the gaming, financial, insurance and law sectors. If they slowly start to pull out of Gib there will not be so much demand.

Many thanks for this post. What you are saying about house prices in both Gibraltar and the UK makes good sense. There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, and you are wise to keep your options open.

A thought. I'f we exit the EU, will Spain shut down the border with Gib?

I doubt it, but who knows? 10,000 Spanish workers cross the border everyday (apparently this figure is very conservative!) to work in Gib, with the border shut this couldn't happen however it would remain a constant threat.

Problem is nobody really knows?

My two pennies worth

Spain would close the frontier tomorrow if she could and she will be able to if the referendum vote is out, Spain does not give two hoots about the frontier workers Spanish or otherwise.

Property price???

These generally depend on supply and demand.

Gibraltar has in recent year built a large number of flats Supply but the prices continue to rise

In the event of a closed frontier situation the question is about employment, at present approx 15,000 people cross daily into Gib to work and that would end.

So what do these people do ? walk away from their work or move to Gib Demand

Will there still be jobs in Gib or will many employers move elsewhere?

The online gambling companies plus insurance and other financial services moved here for tax reasons and that will still be advantageous.

But will these companies still be able to trade across EU frontiers?

Maybe not.

But the gambling companies operate into other non EU countries and I believe their biggest client base is in the far east.

Gibraltar underwrites approx 20% of all UK motor insurance and an EU exit will not change that.

Similarly other financial services.

At the moment a large number of manual workers live in Spain and work in Gib, plumbers, builders, mechanics,
There will still be a need for these people

Many of Gibraltars medical staff also live in Spain, many are Spanish, who will also still be required in Gibraltar.

Therefore I believe there will be an even higher demand on property inflating prices to newer levels.

Add to this the growing number of Higher Net Worth individuals who are required to own property here but not to reside here for the tax advantages.

I will be voting to leave the EU

A very interesting post. I accept your reasoning about potential increased demand, but would the type of people who cross the border each day (examples of which you gave) be able to afford the increased property prices? Presumably the reason they live in Spain is that they cannot afford the current prices, so it follows that they would not be able to afford even higher prices. I am assuming their income would remain stable, of course.

When you are up to your knees in shit you pay the going rate for a plumber etc.

That is what happened in 1969

Thats an interesting view regarding the supply and demand of property, some points I hadn't thought of. Like teejaydee said, assuming the manual workers cannot afford Gib now they would surely have no choice and be forced to give up there jobs if prices increased. Who knows?

Out of interest why will you be voting to leave if you think they will close the border?

From a different thread posted May 5th 2015, 5:31 pm

A society cannot exist on top earners only, someone has to provide the services they require like plumbers, street cleaners, waitresses, hairdressers etc.

Therefore adjustments have to be made so these people can be there to provide the services, be that higher pay or subsidised rents or whatever.

There are people now living in Gibraltar earning minimum wages, not all are resident in Spain.

Its happened and I must say I am well and truly gutted. I honestly didn't think that leave would be the outcome.

Some big decisions to make now.

1) Continue with our property purchase in Gibraltar
or
2) Pull out of the property purchase in Gib and rent instead

Either way we are still selling the UK property, its 2-3 weeks away from exchange. I really need more to time to see what happens, obviously not got this and a decision needs to be made in the next few days.

How devastating is this going to be for Gibraltar?

Much too early to say whether it will be devastating or beneficial.

A lot depends on the situation in Spain

Hello, I've read your posts & really feel for you as this is a very difficult time to make such a decision, such uncertainty after the leave vote. If you still want to give it a go I would say rent for 6-12 months, probs not a good time to buy. I live just over the border & lots of people are so worried about the possible bad outcomes. I own a property in Gib as an investment, so I'm one of them, if the property prices drop in Gib because of the UK leaving EU we are really in deep financial trouble. Gib is a lovely place, once you cut through all the antiquated systems lol & get your residency they really have it made there for familys. Personally I would not live there, it's too overcrowded & full of tourists lol, I much prefer Spain. But to test the water short term yes rent in Gib & find your feet. Good luck :-)

Cross-border workers who live in Spain are seeking rental homes in Gibraltar to limit the long-term risk of any impact from a Brexit, anecdotal evidence suggests.

Cross-border workers eye Gib properties – Gibraltar Chronicle