jimmbo

You forgot the "Diversity Manager" At God knows what salary (Our money)

bigglesworth

You forgot "Elf and Safety"!

But seriously, the failure of G20 this week, (Gordon needs to remember Khartoum) may well renew pressure on sterling, but the ECB simply HAS to cut interest rates and weaken the Euro or Europe will simply close down.

Not forgetting the East.....

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5992996.ece

bigglesworth

OTH, it really is difficult to emphasise just what an appalling custodian of our money Gordon has been.

But Liam Halligan points out a couple of the elephants in the room..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...r-problem.html

In this ugly pig contest, which do you back? The Euro, policies dictated bt Eurocrats desperate to maintain the Growth and Stability Pact, no matter what harm it does to members states and their population?

Or Sterling, continually debauched by a dysfunctional Government led by an innumerate Scottish carpetbagger, ever more desperate to avoid his inevitable footnote in the history books as the worst custodian of public finances EVER seen in Britain? No matter how much of Other Peoples' Money he uses to avoid it. (After all, when Dumbo has finished, money won't be worth anything anyway).

As an ex trader, I never thought I would believe the gold bug argument. But I do now.

Econ

Please tell us more

bigglesworth

I am a bit angry at the moment, so not at my best for the quasi-philosophical, but IMO gold's value lies solely in peoples' faith that it HAS value, and that fiat money does not. (The latter not an unreasonable point of view given Gordon's record).
It really lay in the mercantilist argument - trade, wealth etc was all a zero sum game, as there was only a limited amount of wealth in the world.
Now I guess it is founded more in lack of faith in Government, but to really believe it, you must believe in financial Armageddon.

Now if that IS going to be the case, (and Gordon is certainly trying his best to achieve that) then we really are in for a rough old ride. And given Gordon's total inability to THINK beyond what he thinks he knows, that is not impossible.

Cptnemo

Brilliant thread - so do you still think 1.20 Sterling - Euro by August?

steviedeluxe

Even the most brilliant forecaster can't be 100% about future fluctuations. I suspect the markets have discounted a possible inflationary boom in the UK and are sitting waiting to see how it pans out. In other words the pound could languish at its current level for some time. Having said that, there are some small signs in the UK that the economy may start recovering (mortgage applications up in February, shops sales up due to foreign visitors etc). Could be a long way before gdp starts to rise again however.

bigglesworth

I am a bit with Stevie here. I think the opportunity was there, if there had been any sign from the Government that they understood the problem and how to sort it out, but they are just digging a bigger and bigger hole every day. The failure of a gilt auction last week was VERY worrying indeed.
What Gordon and the Morons seem incapable of understanding is that they cannot force international investors to lend to them - certainly not at rates as low as this.
"Every fule kno" that cash is king in a recession. Every fool except Gordon.
So yes a few of those much fabled green shoots are poking through. But unless Gordon and Alastair lay out how they will SLASH public expenditure in the future, the markets may just decide to call time on UK PLC.

Chiclanagir

Bigglesworth - why do I get the impression that you want this to happen!! I suppose Gordon Brown is responsible for all those people in recesssion in France, Spain (where people are literally going without food) USA, China, Russia in fact nowhere has escaped, but the boring litany continues from you.

jimmbo

If you don't read it, then it won't bore you.

Ray51

Not Biggles' fault ;
rather : the systemic failure of stinking rotten Anglo-Saxon capitalist system , in which : the more you manage to steal , the higher you are regarded , and the more the government's your mate ...IMHO !

Econ

Is that not the EU your talking about... that is what the EU is built on.

bigglesworth

Chiclanagirl
It is more that I am terrified that the present attempt to ignite a consumer boom again will succeed, and there are very worrying signs that it may. Given the parlous state of public and household finances, it is not just ill-advised, it is potentially suicidal. It might do enough to save a few seats at the election but the ensuing pain could make the present situation look like a walk in the park.

The markets may well jib at continuing to fund a country that shows no signs of planning to live within its means. It is not just I saying that - the Governor of the Bank of England himself does.
Unemployment will continue to rise for at least the rest of the year, increasing the deficit further as receipts are cut and necessary expenditure on benefits rises. This gives rise to the very real prospect of stagflation as we are forced to raise interest rates substantially to a) forestall inflation engendered by a renewed consumer boom and b) attract the international funding we need to fund the growing deficit, at the same time as GDP continues to contract.

All worsened by the fact that when we have been in milder versions of the present circumstances before - the 1990s and the 1970s -there was a credible alternative government waiting in the wings, (whether one believed in their politics or not).

And yes Gordon Brown bears at least some degree of responsibility for the world recession. For 12 years he has postured as the elder statesman of public finance on the world stage, and many of the policies that led to the current crisis (light touch regulation, split regulatory systems, low interest rates etc, low cost home ownership etc) were at his instigation.
In 1997 he removed the regulatory function of the Bank of England.
In the late 1990s, he, in tandem with Allan Greenspan, cut interest rates to counteract the fallout from the the collapse of LTCM, the Asian miracle, the Argentine default etc. It was, IMO, the right thing to do.
In 2000, he (and Greenspan) kept interest rates low to offset the dot-com collapse. Again, probably the right move.
But since 2003, despite being repeatedly warned by the OECD, the IMF, the World Bank, the European Commission (and many others) that he (and to a lesser extent, Greenspan) was building an unsustainable mountain of debt, both private and public, he has willfully refused to raise interest rates to choke off demand, which has led to our present plight. Indeed he even mocked the ECB for doing just that.

On balance, IMO, the currency will hold, and there is still a decent chance of 1.20-1.30 this year. But given the high level of debt (public and household) interest rates of zero are akin to throwing petrol on a bonfire, unless VERY prompt action is taken.

me me

Why not try and make money by transferring Euro to pounds and vice versa. My OH has been doing it for a while and has made quite a few bob.

bigglesworth

I intend to when we are over- in a small way though. As an ex-trader, it is very easy to get carried away.

Your OH must be very disciplined. Congratulate him from me.