GB pound weakening
#228
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Re: GB pound weakening
Remember that old Chinese curse -May you live in interesting times? Well we are cursed indeed.
S&P downgraded SPanish debt to AA+ yesterday, (Ireland got hit a bit earlier, and Greece Italy and Portugal are not far behind. Wait for some wiseacre to call them the P.I.G.S.
So... all looking at the collapse in sterling after Gordon and the Morons triumphant return from saving the world things MAY not turn out too awful, dependent on whether your income is sterling base or Euro based. Misery does after all love company. The Euro is getting so close to disintegration now that the ECB is going to HAVE to act. Either it forces absolutely massive unemployment on those 5 countries. And risk them leaving the Euro. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...for-Spain.html
Or for once it has to reform the rules to stop Germany calling the shots and then downvalue the Euro.
It is going to be a hairy old ride, and none of the above means I am any friendlier to the UK economy which Gordon and the Morons are desperately trying to turn in to a cross between a banana republic and Iceland.
S&P downgraded SPanish debt to AA+ yesterday, (Ireland got hit a bit earlier, and Greece Italy and Portugal are not far behind. Wait for some wiseacre to call them the P.I.G.S.
So... all looking at the collapse in sterling after Gordon and the Morons triumphant return from saving the world things MAY not turn out too awful, dependent on whether your income is sterling base or Euro based. Misery does after all love company. The Euro is getting so close to disintegration now that the ECB is going to HAVE to act. Either it forces absolutely massive unemployment on those 5 countries. And risk them leaving the Euro. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...for-Spain.html
Or for once it has to reform the rules to stop Germany calling the shots and then downvalue the Euro.
It is going to be a hairy old ride, and none of the above means I am any friendlier to the UK economy which Gordon and the Morons are desperately trying to turn in to a cross between a banana republic and Iceland.
Last edited by bigglesworth; Jan 20th 2009 at 4:10 pm. Reason: forgot hyperlink
#229
Re: GB pound weakening
I think that newspaper article sums up most of the problems with the Euro...
I've even heard that the germans are starting to hord their own euro notes and making sure they don't hold the notes of other member states....as you say interesting times.
I've even heard that the germans are starting to hord their own euro notes and making sure they don't hold the notes of other member states....as you say interesting times.
#230
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Re: GB pound weakening
On the plus side of the current collapse of the pound is that that which I and others have been warning could happen - that the international markets will simply refuse to lend Gordon and the Morons any more money- has started. So gilt rates are 3.51 and for the first time in years -possibly ever- are above both CPI and RPI. And climbing!
So there is actually a real return on savings. CPI dropped to 3.1 and RPI to 0.9 in December. RPI includes much of the cost of money, so the cuts in interest rates affected it far more.
So there is actually a real return on savings. CPI dropped to 3.1 and RPI to 0.9 in December. RPI includes much of the cost of money, so the cuts in interest rates affected it far more.
#232
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Re: GB pound weakening
We have been doing a monthly shop in Gib for a while. I take two coolboxes. Share journey with a friend. Savings are substantial and quality and choice is much better.
#233
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Re: GB pound weakening
Yet another piece of knocking the Euro propaganda ?
iant
#235
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Re: GB pound weakening
I was surprised when we arrive back in UK went to Morrisons and found that there was a strong similarity between Morrisons prices in UK and Gib. Even to those for fruit which seemed rediculous when it was so much cheaper in Spain.
Jim
Jim
#237
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Re: GB pound weakening
I am not sure you are right there Iant. National debt is guaranteed individually by each country, which is why Greek Spanish Italian debt is as much as 200 basis points higher than German or Dutch. It wouldn't happen if the notes in circulation were divorced from the money supply surely?
They are printed in individual member states, and there is a code (I am told) indicating which state printed them. I certainly have German friends who believe they are hoarding the ones issued in Germany.
Whether the fact that they are printed in Germany means the Bundesbank will honour them and them alone - well let us for God's sake hope we never find out!
As to the problems with the Euro, pointing out that the Euro, whilst working as a store of value, is nevertheless malfunctioning in its Treasury role is recognising a fact. The important point is that that imbalance WILL be corrected.
It can be done in several ways. Voluntarily with member states ceding control of national treasuries money supply etc to the ECB. The ECB continuing to run a monetary and fiscal policy tailored to the restructuring and integration of what was the East German economy into/with Western Germany. With all the massive unemployment that that implies for Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal (and Ireland) etc. In which case you ain't seen nothing yet.
Or it can recognise the risks that that poses for European unity and introduce enough flexibility into the system to allow Club Med economies to devalue some of the problem away. Which would return the Euro Sterling rate to something less painful for BE members.
Or the ECB can stick its head in the sand, and the Club Med economies, already facing riots, will withdraw from the Euro. Which again would bring the peseta to a reasonable level.
Two good options out of three isn't bad is it?
So although the markets are still slamming the pound every time it sticks its head up, it should rally. Not in the short term perhaps but probably by the summer or the end of the year
They are printed in individual member states, and there is a code (I am told) indicating which state printed them. I certainly have German friends who believe they are hoarding the ones issued in Germany.
Whether the fact that they are printed in Germany means the Bundesbank will honour them and them alone - well let us for God's sake hope we never find out!
As to the problems with the Euro, pointing out that the Euro, whilst working as a store of value, is nevertheless malfunctioning in its Treasury role is recognising a fact. The important point is that that imbalance WILL be corrected.
It can be done in several ways. Voluntarily with member states ceding control of national treasuries money supply etc to the ECB. The ECB continuing to run a monetary and fiscal policy tailored to the restructuring and integration of what was the East German economy into/with Western Germany. With all the massive unemployment that that implies for Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal (and Ireland) etc. In which case you ain't seen nothing yet.
Or it can recognise the risks that that poses for European unity and introduce enough flexibility into the system to allow Club Med economies to devalue some of the problem away. Which would return the Euro Sterling rate to something less painful for BE members.
Or the ECB can stick its head in the sand, and the Club Med economies, already facing riots, will withdraw from the Euro. Which again would bring the peseta to a reasonable level.
Two good options out of three isn't bad is it?
So although the markets are still slamming the pound every time it sticks its head up, it should rally. Not in the short term perhaps but probably by the summer or the end of the year
#238
Re: GB pound weakening
If Morrisons in UK are buying fruit and veg and anything else from Spain or other Euro countries they will be paying 1/3 more for it than this time last year and passing on the cost to the customers.
#239
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Re: GB pound weakening
#240
Re: GB pound weakening
Excellent article.
Basically the guy who claimed to have put an end to the boom and bust cycle has allowed and helped create the biggest boom and bust disaster in history.