The exodus continues
 

The official Spanish numbers for British expats who have left Spain in 2014 have just been released and show that the numbers for 2014 will be even higher than those for 2013 when 90.000 expats left, some one in ten of the British expat population.

This is not an anti Spanish rant nor a personal one but merely an attempt to have a sensible discussion on such an important topic for all of us on this forum.

My own theories revolve around Spanish bureaucracy and taxes, mainly, with many small minor variations, but I would not wish to put anyone off from coming to live in such a lovely country, which I have enjoyed for many years.

Re: The exodus continues
 

The tax on UK second homes will be a factor for some I'm sure.

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Hello H - good to see you.

Do you have a source for the figures?

Re: The exodus continues
 

Hi HBG
Happy New Year, Good to hear from you again.
I think your theories are pretty close to the mark, however I wonder how many of those you mention have actually upped sticks and left for good and how many have instead opted for non resident status either within or outside the present regulations ?

Re: The exodus continues
 

Hi HBG, glad you are back after some time. I do miss some of the old posters, especially those that could not debate without getting personal (not you). Used to be much more fun watching posters fall out and start bickering etc. No fun for the Mods though.

I suspect that the majority that return to the UK are those expats that have to earn a living rather than living on pensions and savings.

As has been said on many occasions Spain is a great place if you have money but not if you don't.

Do the stats. get broken down into working and non-working?

Re: The exodus continues
 

If it is true that these numbers of Brits returned to the UK plus from other countries it does shoot a big hole in the UKIP claim regarding the nett increase in the UK population being exclusively due to immigrants.
You could in theory take at least 100,000 off the figures.
EG if the UK population increased by 250,000 and 100,000 were returning Brits etc
I do not think that there is any reliable source of these figures

Re: The exodus continues
 

But it doesn’t shoot a big hole in the UKIP claim regarding the increase in immigration into the UK, does it?

Forget theories and EG’s. The UK population is increasing due to mass immigration. Of course there is no reliable source for these figures. We only have Coalition false promises and figures that are released on a Friday afternoon or those that the press manage to dig out. A far more reliable source would be to walk into a health centre.

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Simple mathmatics aside, you make my point there is no reliable information from any source as to the number of Brits returning to the UK, the number of immigrants the effects of 100,000 returning Brits on local rescources etc etc.
Howver you approajh such figures they can be twisted to suit your own viewpoints.

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You miss one important point. The returning Brits paid into the system before moving abroad and deserve all they can get once they return to the UK. They have paid for it and it is their birthright. Twisted figures apart, the reality is massive immigration, not from returning Brits but from all over the globe. I like your take on trying to blame returning Brits for straining local resources. It will not work.

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I did nothing of the sort and payments asside another 100.000 users of the UK health education benefits etc is a strain on the UK. Simple maths if 40% of the nett increase in the UK population was returning Brits then what you call massive immigration was not massive at all. Lack of government planning and spending over the last few decades is the cause immigration has just revealed how serious the problem is. The problems would still exist. As have said I do not believe any of the figures because there is no way of confirming them one way or another.

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I have been in several UK health centres in the last couple of months and didn't notice anything that would indicate mass immigration at all.

So according to your preferred measure, that's that!

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Incidentally I for one would prefer it if this thread concentrated on exodus from Spain rather than immigration to the UK.

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Whar exodus ????. Where is the evidence.? Are those who come out for a year or two enjoying the summers in on the costas who then realise you have to grow up part of an exodus ?. The only true figure is that of those who had once decided that Spain or Portugal etc was to be their permanent home and for what ever reason are now back in the UK..
How do you measure them ?

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That's why I asked HBG for a source - the exodus might be real or perceived.

Or even non-existent.

ETA I can't find any stats news in a quick search.

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There you have it. Returning Brits are part of the cause of the problems in the NHS, housing, schools etc. And 40% of the immigrants to the UK are returning Brits. But hold on a moment…where does this figure of 40% returning Brits come from? A Spanish source? A Spanish local, regional, countrywide newspaper? On Spanish TV? I am curious to know. (HBG, can you enlighten us?) Anyway, until we do know let us look at some serious figures.

Net migration figures to the UK for the year ending June 2014 shows that the number of Brits leaving the UK was 133,000. And the number of Brits returning to the UK was 83,000. So we have a net migration to the UK of -50,000 Brits. Yes, that’s right, MINUS 50,000, meaning more left than arrived. So much for your reasoning that the nasty Brits are to blame for the uncontrolled immigration into the UK.

MigrationWatchUK | Latest Immigration Statistics

You are telling me, what was it now, ‘Simple maths if 40% of the nett increase in the UK population was returning Brits then what you call massive immigration was not massive at all.’, when in fact MORE Brits are leaving the UK than arriving.

Re: The exodus continues
 

I am sorry you have been in several UK health centres the past couple of months and I hope you get well soon. Tell me, did you have to queue in the damp and cold at six in the morning just to get an appointment to see the doctor? If you did then it couldn’t have been the fault of those nasty returning Brits because, as I have already indicated, more Brits have left the UK than arrived. You say you did not notice anything that would indicate mass immigration at all? How do you come to this conclusion? Did you ask the patients where they all came from? I am also interested in where these several health centres are located.

Incidentally, if you do not like the discussion then do not discuss. As you can see a poster before me mentioned the impact returning Brits has on immigration to the UK, or doesn’t have, and I am replying. The thread is actually about British immigration to the UK. Exodus from Spain = immigration to the UK (in most cases). If you have nothing to add then so be it. But do not try to censor me for discussing in a sensible way.

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I am pretty sure that the only source of the data is the local Padron as that is the official census.

There are many examples recently of various municipalities insisting on everyone re-registering every two years, although, strictly speaking they should not do this.

As a result, many people either decide they can't be bothered with renewing and stay or more likely many people who actually moved out years ago or died are now being purged from the Padron.

Either way I would suggest that any figures published are seriously questionable.

Re: The exodus continues
 

:goodpost:m[QUOTE=Fred James;11520600]I am pretty sure that the only source of the data is the local Padron as that is the official census.

There are many examples recently of various municipalities insisting on everyone re-registering every two years, although, strictly speaking they should not do this.

As a result, many people either decide they can't be bothered with renewing and stay or more likely many people who actually moved out years ago or died are now being purged from the Padron.

Either way I would suggest that any figures published are seriously questionable.[/QUOTE.

Most of the figures published are tosh and are used by all of us to support whatever views we may hold.
Lies lies and damn
statistics !!

Re: The exodus continues
 

[QUOTE=EMR;11520605]:goodpost:mHold on a minute. Here you go again, floating along in your own little fantasy world. When your argument has been demolished you say everything is tosh. I am quoting from official statistics. More Brits are leaving the UK than arriving. Do you believe that is correct? If not, show me something that says otherwise. Other than that, you are wrong again.

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Yes, but as I pointed out, there is a serious possibility that the statistics are wrong as they are entirely based on the Padron which most of us know bears no resemblance to reality.

In the past hundreds of thousands of holiday home owners were encouraged to sign on the Paron as that enabled the locality to get more funding from central government. This has been going on for years and now the government is trying to clean up the mess by asking some localities to revise their records. That is not tosh - it is a fact.

Even on this forum, non residents have been advised that they may have to sign on the Padron to enable them to buy a car.

The Padron is a joke and all these statistics are based on it - there is no other way the government have any idea who (in theory) lives where.

Re: The exodus continues
 

We don't actually know what HBG was basing his OP on - he may have another source.

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[QUOTE=la mancha;11520621]You are missing the point and prove mine that figures can be interpreted to suit any agenda. You believe that all the ills of the UK can be attributed to immigration others know that it is fare more complicated than that. There are those on the Spanish forum who view the " exodus " of Brits as supporting their views of Spain. If you know anything about statistics it is that they are only as good as the people who collect them and the criteria they select. .

Re: The exodus continues
 

Not on my behalf - someone else's.

No - no queuing for the doctor at all - several appointments all very easy. Some waiting at specialist clinics.

I didn't come to any conclusion and I certainly didn't ask where all the patients had come from. I was merely commenting on your assertion that walking into a health centre would be a far more reliable source.

Thinking about it though, 90% of the people waiting did have one thing in common - they were old. I wonder if that is significant?

Yes - I did see that the poster previous to you had taken the topic to UK immigration which is why I mentioned it - nothing to do with you.

No - the thread is not about immigration to the UK which is a huge separate subject with ramifications way beyond expats leaving Spain. Anyone can see that the point of the thread is to discuss that why it's happening - IF it is, and not about perceived problems with UK immigration.

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Quoting this to SORT THE BLOODY QUOTES OUT!!

...ahem...

Also - that is not the only point he is missing. The thread is about a perceived exodus of Brits from Spain NOT about problems caused by immigration to the UK.

Re: The exodus continues
 

Jimenato

I am still waiting to find out where these several health centres are.

So 90% of the people were old, were they? So what?

Re: The exodus continues
 

Bristol and West Country although I don't see why that's significant.

You said this...

So - I have 'walked into health centres'.

I'm not sure what it is supposed to be a 'reliable source' of but can only assume you mean evidence of 'UK population increasing due to mass immigration'.

Again, I'm not sure what I would be looking for in a health centre as evidence of mass immigration, nor that it is causing population increase, but what was obvious was that the huge majority there were old.

This could explain a) why the population is increasing (people living longer) and b) full waiting rooms (old people require more healthcare).

What's this got to do with mass immigration?

And what has any of it got to do with an exodus from Spain?

Re: The exodus continues
 

Anyway - I know of several people who have returned to the UK from Spain over the last few years.

There are various reasons - a couple have been in bad health and preferred the UK NHS to the Spanish version - probably a language angle as well.

At least two people I know have gone because of the 720 declaration (they are both very wealthy).

More have gone because of a desire to be near grandchildren.

I'm not aware of a mass exodus.

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I know a few people who have gone back in the past year or so. All have found it hard to settle and one lot has even returned although they were struggling financially here.

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Let’s get one thing straight. A forum is for discussion. Barring swearing, insults, libellous statements etc. people can discuss. Many discussions go off-thread; that is the attraction of a discussion on a forum. Many times I have read discussions here that go off-thread but I read what is being said and learn. This thread is about an exodus from Spain (and I do not agree nor disagree with this statement), and goes hand-in-hand with immigration to the UK, as in Brits immigrating back to the UK (government wording, not mine).

I have read posts on here stating the effects of 100,000 returning Brits (will have) on local resources etc, and another 100,000 users of the UK health, education, benefits etc is a strain on the UK. These statements are wrong and I said so.

I like to know things, so I did a little research and found that far from returning Brits immigrating to the UK and straining local resources, there are in fact more Brits emigrating than immigrating back to the UK. Don’t you find that interesting because I do as it is something that I did not know before, and judging by some of the posts I have read, neither did many others.

You say this thread is about a perceived exodus of Brits from Spain and not about problems caused by immigration to the UK. Don’t they go hand in hand when posters question the rise in returning Brits with a strain on local UK services? Would you not also agree that if a poster posts a false statement then I cannot answer it because you think it is off-thread?

I have read the last two posts and they are quite correct. And?

Some here try to widen the scope to bring more posters into the discussion while still keeping within the parameters of the thread. It now seems to be dead in the water.

Thanks a lot.

Re: The exodus continues
 

Unfortunately this thread moved away from HBG's original post very quickly and somehow became a thread on uk immigration and they only go in one direction.:thumbdown:

Re: The exodus continues
 

The problem is that there is little supporting data for the title to this thread.

If true that the numbers of Brits leaving the UK is constant or reducing then a 100,000 returning Brits does place pressure on the UKs already stretched resources. That is simple statistical logic it has nothing to do with immigration.
If anyones argument is based on one set of government figures then their argument looses any validity if they do not accept all figures from the same source even they contradict their original premise.
That again is simple logic.
When emotion takes over from facts then there is little opportunity for a reasoned debate.
I believe that there is no exodus just as the UK is not overrun , the available facts just do not support either statement.

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But the OP had nothing to do with Uk immigration, so why was it raised?
Another thread derailed for a political agenda.

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Precisely.:goodpost:

It might help if HBG were to come back and put some flesh on the bones of his OP. It's an interesting topic but no-one seems sure that it's really happening.

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I’m trying my best, Jim, but these official Spanish figures are not as clear as they might be. They are based on the initial registration numbers for British expats who have come to Spain, then linked to central numbers registered on the Spain wide padrons, the numbers who have deregistered, a misleadingly small figure because the process has been made so awkward, and the current numbers on the padron. The most recognisable numbers were printed in the Costa Blanca News, the most reliable (paid for) newspaper genuinely committed to the British expat community in Spain.

There are exact numbers for each part of the largest British expat communities in Spain. From memory, the British expat population to the south of Alicante has almost halved over the past two years.

I live in this area and it is astonishing. A small(ish) number have given up with the pardon and are now ‘hiding in plain sight’, but the great majority have actually gone home.

I can’t make sense of it. Spain has changed, but not that much. The fear of taxes is mostly that, a fear. There are still cars with yellow number plates that have been here for years, and the climate is as good as it has always been.

I read some time ago that 70% of all British expats go home eventually. Perhaps hat explains it best of all.. . .

.

Re: The exodus continues
 

Whatever the reasons for leaving the UK in the first place, many of us, as we get older, hanker after our roots. When good health begins to fail, everything becomes hard work. Everyday administration of life in general appears easier amidst familiar surroundings, and in your original language. I also wouldn't be surprised if availability of benefits for seniors in UK plays a part for many.
I've been an expat for over 50 years (not in Spain), so have no plans to move now; but I know some folks who will, for the above reasons.
bye bye dicette l'inglese

Re: The exodus continues
 

Much of what you say is true. I've seen it happening for more than twenty years now, even many pensioners I knew who said they were very content and here for the duration, suddenly decided that back to their roots in Blighty was what they really wanted after all.
However I don't think that in any way accounts for the recent dramatic drop in numbers. IMHO more likely it's down to the change in attitude by Rajoy and co to tighten up on tax regulations most especially those relating to assets and income from outside Spain and chase every expat euro/pound they can get their grubby mitts on to help drag themselves out of the mire.
On the face of it, it seems to me they are shooting themselves in the foot big-time, we shall no doubt see.
To go back to the previous point, on what basis do they calculate the number of expats who have opted for non-res status or left for good is it simply down to deregistering from the Padron ?

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So many of our neighbours have packed up and gone home, I do not know if they bothered to remove themselves from the padron, it seems a pointless activity IMHO. It must be impossible to give an accurate figure but I shall be one of them, later this year and leave behind the nightmare that Spain became for us. I guess we will return to the UK with what we can carry and try to start again but God knows where and how at our age.

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I agree with the last two posters who also have a vast knowledge of the Spanish ‘system’. Here is a recent example of how it shoots itself in the foot.

A company of English estate agents operating in Spain for more than ten years recently witnessed a fall out between the senior partner and one of his junior ones. If the excessive use of ‘black’ money means that the operation is a crooked one, then those criteria apply in full.

The junior partner should have paid clients and everyone else in full from the black money but pocketed it instead, to the tune of 500K. The senior partner reported the facts to the Spanish authorities who immediate attended
the premises and forced it to close down there and then.

By pure chance I actually witnessed the two grim-faced Spanish officials as they insisted on the shutters coming down. The senior partner waited until dark and removed all his computers and other records. He seemed relieved and returned to the UK the following day, never to return. The junior and other partners also disappeared.

The Spanish officials appeared in force the next day and looked for anyone they could contact, and then returned the day after that with longer and longer faces.

Unfortunately hundreds of innocent expats will lose large sums of money, as will the Spanish authorities, especially Hacienda, but shooting themselves in the foot seems to be a Spanish national pastime.

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Spanish News in English........... On Facebook.
28 December 2014 at 20:43 ·

IMMIGRATION IN SPAIN

According to data from July 2014,
there are 4 538 503 immigrants in Spain.
The amount has decreased 10,53% compared to 2013,
when the number of immigrants was 5 072 680.
These numbers do not include citizens with doble nationality.

Here are some of the biggest immigration groups in Spain:
Romanians - 721 445,
Moroccans - 697 074.
Ecuadorians - 187 025,
Colombians - 154.320,
Bolivians - 154 320,
Peruvians - 71 755.

* Source: El Pais

Re: The exodus continues
 

Don't get caught out by new Spain tax laws - Telegraph

New "Spanish Inquisition"

"And in a move that’s led to mutterings of a new Spanish Inquisition, the Spanish authorities have started automatically taking tax debts from people’s bank accounts."

I have it on good authority that this is already happening !