Investments
#106
Re: Investments
How did it pan out?
I don't understand what happened today with the FTSE rising and the £ falling, but nevertheless I still "made" £850 quid on mainly micro movements of oil and GBP/USD. 17 trades mostly of 30 secs - 5 mins, although £750 of the total was allowing GBP to rise when it looked like it had fallen to far. ("Looked like...": I need some mathematical help...)
I don't understand what happened today with the FTSE rising and the £ falling, but nevertheless I still "made" £850 quid on mainly micro movements of oil and GBP/USD. 17 trades mostly of 30 secs - 5 mins, although £750 of the total was allowing GBP to rise when it looked like it had fallen to far. ("Looked like...": I need some mathematical help...)
short term movement. Longer term, the equities will take a hammering as the risks around equities and brexit will outweigh the currency movement. The only opposing factor to that is a lot of the profits on the FTSE are actually generated overseas thanks to our friendly listing policies.
Well done on the trading. When are you going to go from the demo account and put your balls on the line. I can assure you that you will trade differently with real money.
#107
Re: Investments
...and this is my point about markets (or as LB says those that trade the markets ) having personalities. They tend to rise slowly and fall fast. fear is a stronger emotion than greed - especially when wider macro risks are high.
#108
Hit 16's
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Of all the gin joints, in all the towns, in all the world, she walks into mine
Posts: 13,112
Re: Investments
A falling GBP means that, in USD/EUR terms, the UK equities look cheap so the money comes and buys some - pushing the price up in local currency.
short term movement. Longer term, the equities will take a hammering as the risks around equities and brexit will outweigh the currency movement. The only opposing factor to that is a lot of the profits on the FTSE are actually generated overseas thanks to our friendly listing policies.
Well done on the trading. When are you going to go from the demo account and put your balls on the line. I can assure you that you will trade differently with real money.
short term movement. Longer term, the equities will take a hammering as the risks around equities and brexit will outweigh the currency movement. The only opposing factor to that is a lot of the profits on the FTSE are actually generated overseas thanks to our friendly listing policies.
Well done on the trading. When are you going to go from the demo account and put your balls on the line. I can assure you that you will trade differently with real money.
Not sure when I'll put real money into it, but soon. But need some structure...
#109
Re: Investments
The problem is that the markets don't generally follow economics. for instance... China releases some really bad data... the short term affect on the market is often positive (logic being if it's this bad, then we will get a policy response which will benefit us) - two days later, the markets wake up and say, shit no policy response, sell everything.
#110
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 364
Re: Investments
This looks a very strong up movement in oil, i fancy some big players are now long
I will retract my 24.50 and now would suggest this might be going up.
Beauty of only running short term positions, Can get it completely wrong and still get out relatively unbloodied
I will retract my 24.50 and now would suggest this might be going up.
Beauty of only running short term positions, Can get it completely wrong and still get out relatively unbloodied
#111
Hit 16's
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Of all the gin joints, in all the towns, in all the world, she walks into mine
Posts: 13,112
Re: Investments
This looks a very strong up movement in oil, i fancy some big players are now long
I will retract my 24.50 and now would suggest this might be going up.
Beauty of only running short term positions, Can get it completely wrong and still get out relatively unbloodied
I will retract my 24.50 and now would suggest this might be going up.
Beauty of only running short term positions, Can get it completely wrong and still get out relatively unbloodied
The question is: Buy now, or is this temporary? But, as you say, there'll still be a lot of ups and downs before it stabilises.
#112
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 364
Re: Investments
Plus i think if this goes thru 34 it will force the funds that are short to switch direction meaning a bigger surge up
will still trade in and out both up and down but have just bought loads of call options on 35 and 36 usd oil.
#113
Re: Investments
i think that could well be the bottom, in a bizarre way both good news and bad will move it up. Meaning some sort of production cut will sent it up as will any sort of escalation in tension this side of the world.
Plus i think if this goes thru 34 it will force the funds that are short to switch direction meaning a bigger surge up
will still trade in and out both up and down but have just bought loads of call options on 35 and 36 usd oil.
Plus i think if this goes thru 34 it will force the funds that are short to switch direction meaning a bigger surge up
will still trade in and out both up and down but have just bought loads of call options on 35 and 36 usd oil.
The market is looking for good news to make the oil go up. I don't think it's there and in general I believe in oil. Last time it hit 34, it took a hammering.
Last edited by Millhouse; Feb 23rd 2016 at 11:38 am.
#114
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 364
Re: Investments
The same as Gold, silver and copper, the spot oil price has little to do with the actual commodity value any more, its a market tool. when the big players want to move the market in either direction, they will. regardless of the fundamentals
#115
Re: Investments
on global fundamentals i agree, but oil, as has everything has morphed into all about the paper market rather then physical delivery. Look at how many contracts are traded daily, each contract is 1000 barrels, way way more than is being produced each day.
The same as Gold, silver and copper, the spot oil price has little to do with the actual commodity value any more, its a market tool. when the big players want to move the market in either direction, they will. regardless of the fundamentals
The same as Gold, silver and copper, the spot oil price has little to do with the actual commodity value any more, its a market tool. when the big players want to move the market in either direction, they will. regardless of the fundamentals
#118
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 364
Re: Investments
I think the Saudis have shot themselves in the foot and actually hit the target for a change, whatever the price does they have lost, they boxed themselves into that corner
So i am long oil upto 16th March when the options expire, but i, like you shorted it now on a quick 5 min trade
#119
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 364
Re: Investments
no i have just gone seriously long on oil, but on options so I have prepaid an amount for the right to buy it at an agreed amount, being 35 and 36 USD in March.
I think the Saudis have shot themselves in the foot and actually hit the target for a change, whatever the price does they have lost, they boxed themselves into that corner
So i am long oil upto 16th March when the options expire, but i, like you shorted it now on a quick 5 min trade
I think the Saudis have shot themselves in the foot and actually hit the target for a change, whatever the price does they have lost, they boxed themselves into that corner
So i am long oil upto 16th March when the options expire, but i, like you shorted it now on a quick 5 min trade