nonthaburi

Look on the brightside. Pound hopefully keeps on dropping. Mass unemployment. House prices fall.

what can go wrong?

Annetje

Living in France, my bank account

DXBtoDOH

I guess there'll be a vote in Parliament around 12 December and the deal will be defeated by a substantial majority. Then what happens?

The shit hitting the fan that we've been waiting so long for?

Could make for a happy Christmas

Millhouse

A part of me sill thinks the deal will be agreed... at some point people must think "what's the alternative" ?

DXBtoDOH

The deal has been agreed. It's the vote that matters.

The problem with the vote is that there's probably not a single MP in all of Parliament who wants or likes this deal. Brexiteers hate it. Remainers hate it. Labour hate it. Tories hate it. SNP hate it. DUP hate it. Getting people to vote for a deal they hate is difficult.

There will be Brexiteers who will vote against the deal thinking that remaining is better, Tory remainers will vote against the deal in the hopes that it leads to a second referendum. Labour will vote against the deal in hopes of triggering the collapse of the government and a GE or a second referendum. SNP will always vote against the deal because they're gung ho on EU membership and will also privately hope that a no-deal will spur independence in Scotland. Lib Dems, well, no one cares what they think. DUP will vote against the deal because it still treats NI separately.

We may see an odd situation where the deal is voted down both in the initial vote and a second vote, but the Tories refuse to submit May to a vote of no conference, so the Government doesn't fall due to the fixed term act, but the Government can't do anything either. Parliament also can't do anything as there's no majority for anything else..... hard crash out by default.

I must admit that a hard crash out may be better for the long run. May's deal only means the UK will be stuck squabbling and tearing itself apart over the future EU trade treaty for the next decade or so thanks to the Irish backstop. But a hard brexit would at least mean a clear direction into the future.

Thairetired2016

Falling house prices? Wishfull thinking that prices will drop to an affordable level.

fezzer

Interestingly it was pointed out to me at the weekend that the Great in "Great Britain" has nothing to go with how excellent the country is, but is just a differentiator from the smaller Brittany:

Wiki article
"The use of the word "Great" before "Britain" originates in the French language, which uses Bretagne for both Britain and Brittany. French therefore distinguishes between the two by calling Britain la Grande Bretagne, a distinction which was transferred into English." So to rub salt into the wound, it's a French term...

Millhouse

Then the deal hasn't really been agreed has it - it's conditionally agreed and subject to approval. Ironically those that don't like it are likely to accidentally force a hard-brexit. Certainly more forces towards a hard exit than not.

Millhouse

Quite likely to drop... although so might wages, GDP etc. Affordability is all relative.

DXBtoDOH

Pedantic but fair enough.

All MPs must feel like they're between a rock and a hard place.

I've gone through all the possibilities:

Labour:

1. Abstain from the vote and let the Tories pass a hated deal. Problem: Labour grassroots and voters will never forgive Labour for abstaining when they could defeat a deal and hopefully trigger an election or referendum or somehow remain. Triggers a crisis in Labour.

2. Moderate Labour MPs vote for the deal. None of them want the deal. So how many will vote? Enough to offset the anti deal Tories? Most likely not. And moderate Labour MPs know that voting for the deal risks the anger of Momentum and deselection. So why risk your own political future voting for a deal you despise, think is terrible, and when there's a chance however slim that voting against the deal could lead to a second referendum cancelling Brexit.

3. Vote against the deal: this is what their voters expect them to. But this could easily trigger a no deal outcome, which their voters want least of all. Conundrum. But can they avoid this? Most likely not.

Dark horse: Corbyn and McDonnell are privately staunchly anti-EU and would be glad to have Britain out of the EU. Will they broker a compromise with May to whip a vote for the deal in exchange for an early election (I've seen this theory floating around). But they are too obliged to Momentum and the grassroots, who hate the deal and will never forgive Corbyn / McDonnell for trying to do this. This would trigger a major crisis in Labour. Corbyn can't afford that, so unlikely.

Tories:

The Tories will be divided into the following groups:

1. The loyalists, who will hold their nose and vote for the deal. This includes the Government.

2. The Remain MPs who think the deal is worse than staying and want to trigger a second referendum or hope that a no-deal vote will send May back to the EU for more negotiations. See Jo Johnson. Or swing to EFTA. So they will vote against the deal. How many of them are there? Enough, probably.

3. The Brexiteers: they all hate the deal. 91 have publicly declared they're not voting for the deal. The number may whittle down closer to the vote. But then again it may also increase as there's safety in numbers and if consensus is that the deal will be voted down, you might as well vote against it as well (because you hate it). This thinking also means more Remain MPs may switch from category 1 to 2 and vote against the deal despite currently assuring the whips they will vote for the deal.

Result: anywhere between 50-150 Tory MPs will vote against the deal. Even if only 50 do, that's enough to kill the deal if all other parties vote against it.

SNP:

Will always vote against the deal. Possibly abstain but I suspect not. Sturgeon has been far too pro-EU to do anything but vote against the deal or she cripples any authority she may have as well as trigger a crisis within SNP. She can't afford that.

DUP:

Will vote against the deal.

LibDems:

Will vote against the deal with the exception of one or two weird ones. There's always the one or two contrarian LibDems.

nonthaburi

more likely to fall I think. If you're earning cash outside the UK, the combination of fx rates and falling house prices could doubly work in your favour.

what is affordable? Everyone's different, plus there's a huge difference between London area, and north.

plenty of great houses to be had in the north for not that much money.

Millhouse

they come at a heavy non-monetary cost

nonthaburi

I'll take a deep fried mars bar any day.

BritInParis

Agree with all this. A ‘managed’ No Deal scenario is what are heading for. Not ideal but far better than this shambles.

scrubbedexpat141

Do you honestly think the Italians would have done a better job, economically, without the EU? I mean, the Lira wasn't exactly a shining example was it?

Anyway, pointless discussion.

Yeah, once you're in you can't be in-in or inner or double-in, the only other way is out.

Don't confuse the nationalists. What made Britain 'Great' wasn't the French or Brittany, it was rations and leaving your doors unlocked and chemical castration and cheap housing and all that great stuff.