The Dean

I have a gut feeling that this could be a 'make-or-break' year for Dubai........

EITHER - it will enjoy a remarkable year in which tourists start flooding back, hotels become full (we are told they already are, but my 'spies' tell me that's garbage), people start buying (and selling?) property again, businesses move here, expand, hire more staff, etc..........

OR - it will realise that the economic model on which the previous (and illusory) 'boom' was built cannot be repeated and certainly cannot be sustained in the modern global economic environment in which recession persists just about everywhere and old-fashioned concepts like tourism and FDI simply don't materialise...........

I have a nasty feeling I know which is more likely.

Happy New Year, everyone............

lanarkwitch

I really don't know about this one Dean, from my very very limited experience of Dubai so far I can honestly say I do love the way the talk the place up all the time and imply things are going well and on the up, if only the UK and Ireland took similar attitudes to attempting to build back some confidence.

From what I've read it seems Dubai realise only to well the boom can't be repeated, nor do they really wish to do it again on the same scale (recovery here, to what extent you may believe it has taken place has been painful for them also). This city is so far ahead of Abu Dhabi it's amazing it makes Ad look more like a small town than a city. In terms of business culture and also the recent changes to the mortgage LTV and talking up of the property market (which to some extent I believe to be true as villa prices have gone up both in purchase and rental prices) I do smell attempts at attracting investment into property of a corporate rather than individual basis, I also believe this will go some way to sorting out a better infrastructure in terms of cash flows and overdue monies to the many many construction companies here who are owed so many 000's it hard to count.

All in all I think the city is well placed to move forward, slow and steady wins the race, jobs that have been on hold here are starting to move again slowly and new projects are going ahead. I had also heard that one of the bigger companies that was planning an IPO here has been advised to keep hold of their ownership as plans were being made that could be beneficial to them.

All in all I'm going into 2013 with a positive view and will try to maintain it through the year, theres been tooo much depressing news lately.

Patsy Stoned

But... the demographics of Dubai have changed darling...China, Russia and India are the biggest group moving here for tourism,business,living etc.
A lot of the schools have seen an increase in families from those countries registering their children. The hotels have more Chinese and Russian clients than ever.
My client list has changed too. I have gone from about 80% western expat and 20% Arab/Asian to a complete reversal.

The Dean

........ but China and India are now seeing the dramatic end of the economic boom of recent years (some of the economic data coming out of China seems truly frightening). You may be right, but I just cannot see Dubai blossoming in a Shangri-La bubble of prosperity while the world continues to struggle. I hope I'm wrong.

Patsy Stoned

That is true darling. I hope we don't see Dubai overrun by the Chinese... They already control too much in Africa etc.

mentalist

If the Xmas & New Year is anything to go by, 2013 will be another boom year for Dubai. Everywhere seems to be packed to the rafters, especially Dubai Mall, even leaving aside the New Year festivities.

Blue Cat

I went to MOE on NYE, it was absolutely mobbed! but the thing is are these people spending or just passing time?

lanarkwitch

The amount of Russians here is amazing, almost all the European people in my building are from somewhere out that way.

BRIC economies are in my view going to suffer in the same way everyone else has, theres simply no one to export goods to at the moment, part of the problem with the pyramid scheme we call the modern economic environment. Also worth noting bad news now coming out of Australia on the economic front as well.

lanarkwitch

Boxing day everyone, (including me yaaayy!!) had bags with them in Dubai Mall, it was the busiest I ever saw it

mentalist

Went for a Groupon massage at the Thai spa in Hotel Mercure in Port Rashid last week and all the band posters and brochures in the hotel lobby were in Russian.

The Dean

...... and yet so many shops there are closing down - I suspect the owners have started to push rents to an already unreasonable level, and will only attract the bigger chains and stores now. Great - a mall full of Tim Hortons and Starbucks........... I think Blue Cat is right - I notice a lot of people just treating a trip to a mall as a sightseeing experience. And anyway - even if they are actually buying - does spending money in Aldo or wherever actually boost Dubai's economy generally?

The Dean

And who the hell is going to sustain the new MbR City???

lanarkwitch

Spending money anywhere contributes to the economy.

britexpat76

I would say Abu Dhabi is light years ahead of Dubai as its not $50 billion in debt with half the construction projects incomplete or being reclaimed by the sea.............

lanarkwitch

Sorry don't agree, having just lived there for the last 4 years, there have been little to no jobs in the last 2 years, the local influence is extremely high and they have pretty much taken the attitude of closing the door on the outside world for the moment, still when you have the money they already do, i can see why.

Abu Dhabi has never tried to compete with Dubai, it has natural resources and local culture is much stronger. There are also many incomplete projects in AD and contractors have not been paid for completed works either.

I prefer AD to Dubai for many reasons, but at least Dubai has tried