Brexshit

Old Apr 4th 2019, 7:03 am
  #91  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Originally Posted by Millhouse
Remember, we are thinking that it's all the UK's decision. It's not. The EU may deliver the mercy killing we need - like taking your least favourite dog to the vet to be put down.

The only thing that's basically in our control is revoking Art.50
Very true. Good point.

They perhaps might look at the situation and think, jesus **** guys, just get on with it.
We know we are important to the EU but the French et al aren't going to wait around for our political ball tickling forever.

People seem to forget this deal is a really positive thing for the transition. It's not forever. It's temporary until permanent solutions are found.
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Old Apr 4th 2019, 7:34 am
  #92  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Originally Posted by Scamp

People seem to forget this deal is a really positive thing for the transition. It's not forever. It's temporary until permanent solutions are found.
Aside from the fact that it's impossible to find permanent solutions, so the deal is basically forever - it also extends the political deadlock in the country for the foreseeable future. Much better to either revoke Art.50 or crash out.

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Old Apr 4th 2019, 7:40 am
  #93  
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Default Re: Brexshit

I still come back to the Target2 Eurozone debt. owing by Spain and Italy to Germany, which I strongly suspect is behind all of this. Better to have the UK's 65 million tax-donkeys on the hook for their share of that debt, than not.
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Old Apr 4th 2019, 7:49 am
  #94  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Originally Posted by Johnnyboy11
I still come back to the Target2 Eurozone debt. owing by Spain and Italy to Germany, which I strongly suspect is behind all of this. Better to have the UK's 65 million tax-donkeys on the hook for their share of that debt, than not.
Yup. And largely the reason to leave and default on the divorce bill.
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Old Apr 4th 2019, 8:06 am
  #95  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Originally Posted by Millhouse
Aside from the fact that it's impossible to find permanent solutions, so the deal is basically forever - it also extends the political deadlock in the country for the foreseeable future. Much better to either revoke Art.50 or crash out.
No, but there are permanent solutions for the UK in replicating lots of EU law etc into normality. It takes time to do that so a transition deal makes huge sense.

Anyway, revoking A50 seems like it would result in riots, crashing out does lots of damage but I think if we don't leave to a fairly maximum extent, a 'soft' Brexit is going to be received just as badly.
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Old Apr 4th 2019, 11:38 am
  #96  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Firstly very much doubt the UK will riot over anything. The average age of brexitters is a lot older than the average person. The Tory party membership is average age 75+. There is a limit to how much social disruption they can cause. I don't think tutting more loudly on the bus when they hear foreign languages or talking to the lady on the desk at the post office for even longer is really going to make the country unmanageable.

Also, most of those warning "if you don't do this, the far right will end up in power" are curiously mainly people who actually seem to quite like the idea of the far right in power. So I suspect if they really believed it, they'd keep their mouth shut.

I think kicking the can down the road is the worst possible outcome. They've had three years to make a plan, and the fact they cannot speaks volumes. And it's not only the remainers vetoing it, May's biggest problem has been the DUP and the ERG wingnuts. If we're going to talk "will of the people", let's remember that after the referendum, May went to the polls to get the people to give her some more MPs so she could do brexit as she'd proposed. And she ended up losing her majority. And yet she insisted nothing had changed, and tried to force through a hard brexit deal, which apparently wasn't hard enough for some in her party, who felt that despite the referendum being 52/48, and the public vote producing no majority in parliament, that they should try to force through a hard brexit without compromise.

If the UK wants some reasonable outcome to 'bring the country back together', then everyone needs to compromise. Because it's clear that the issue is divisive. Remainers need to accept that even if the referendum was iffy, there are about half the country who for whatever reason don't like being in the EU. And leavers need to accept that the UK is reliant on the economic benefits of the single market and customs union, and that saying "we joined a common market, not a European superstate" makes no sense when you're also insisting now that you must leave the single market and customs union too.

If people and MPs can compromise, then the UK can leave with a deal. It probably won't be as good as EU membership (less power), but if it lets leavers feel happy that they're no longer part of the political move towards "ever closer union", then so be it.

If leavers will not accept that and are bent on 'no deal', despite the very clear warnings from... pretty much everyone from the CBI, Treasury, banks, unions, universities and car companies, then they have to accept that if they're going to view this as "winner takes all", it might very well finally end up with the EU cutting off the options of further delays, and parliament having to decide simply between 'no deal' and 'no brexit'. And it's not clear in that situation that enough would be prepared to risk 'no deal'.

Leaving the EU, but with a single market and customs union deal like Switzerland, Norway, etc. absolutely does fulfil the referendum result. And the leave side promised that the UK would not lose access to the single market and there would not be trade barriers. They promised a lot of other things (stopping immigration), and clearly something has to give. It's true a deal with SM and CU does not deliver on the promises the leave side made, but neither does no deal. Because they also promised continued SM and CU access.

If parliament really cannot decide, then it seems now the fact that the UK cannot get the deal leave voters were promised, the public might have to be asked again.

If it's about "the will of the people", then I don't see why anyone would be that bothered by this.
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Old Apr 4th 2019, 12:28 pm
  #97  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Actually "captain" the average tory party member is 57, the average labour member is 54, so with the huge groundswell of kids in momentum and the sad ideals taught by left wing universities that socialism and inclusiveness works (hint, it doesn't), the real average age of labour members, excluding the under 25s is nearer 60..

Pop that in your pipe and smoke it, if you're going to come out with facts - at least make them real, not the fake news the left loves.

Anyway, I have no idea how this will end up, but May courting a bloke she allegedly despises to sell out even more to the Eu which he has always voted against her own members beggars belief.

The by-election today should be interesting, Newport, a labour stronghold, don't be surprised if UKIP and Neil Hamilton (how can he even stand for election with his past) winning it is a possibility.
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Old Apr 5th 2019, 1:53 pm
  #98  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Don't be surprised if UKIP and Neil Hamilton (how can he even stand for election with his past) winning it is a possibility.
Lol. 9%. Almost. And apparently that's only because half confused him with Lewis Hamilton.
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Old Apr 6th 2019, 9:32 am
  #99  
 
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Default Re: Brexshit

Originally Posted by captainflack
Lol. 9%. Almost. And apparently that's only because half confused him with Lewis Hamilton.
A couple of interesting things though.
1) 37% turnout. Is this a sign of voter disenchantment due to Brexit?
2) Labour majority well down to 1900 or so, and this is South Wales.

I don't have a crystal ball, but that's what I'd be looking at if it concerned me.
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Old Apr 6th 2019, 11:45 am
  #100  
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Default Re: Brexshit

By-elections always have low turnout. 37% is par for the course. Therefore, majorities tend to be lower because far fewer people are voting. They are also typically used as protest votes against the government, or the incumbent, or both.

Some people (see above) were predicting a UKIP victory just a day before, so winning it is hardly a disaster for Labour. That said, Corbyn appears to be a liability, even in traditional old labour areas.

I think the Tory party will split whatever happens. It appears the nationalist wing will win out, and the pro-business lobby will need to find a new home. I can see a new pro-European centrist party taking moderate Tories and 'New Labour' MPs, and probably libdems if they give up that party.
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Old Apr 7th 2019, 9:51 am
  #101  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Originally Posted by captainflack
By-elections always have low turnout. 37% is par for the course. Therefore, majorities tend to be lower because far fewer people are voting. They are also typically used as protest votes against the government, or the incumbent, or both.

Some people (see above) were predicting a UKIP victory just a day before, so winning it is hardly a disaster for Labour. That said, Corbyn appears to be a liability, even in traditional old labour areas.

I think the Tory party will split whatever happens. It appears the nationalist wing will win out, and the pro-business lobby will need to find a new home. I can see a new pro-European centrist party taking moderate Tories and 'New Labour' MPs, and probably libdems if they give up that party.
Seems they are just merging.
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Old Apr 8th 2019, 6:58 am
  #102  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Again, more misrepresentation from the captain. I never predicted a UKIP win at all, I also stated why he could even stand is beyond me.

Try answering the other points I made - hindsight is, after all, a wonderful thing.
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Old Apr 8th 2019, 7:06 am
  #103  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Originally Posted by IKnowNothing
Again, more misrepresentation from the captain. I never predicted a UKIP win at all, I also stated why he could even stand is beyond me.

Try answering the other points I made - hindsight is, after all, a wonderful thing.
"don't be surprised if UKIP and Neil Hamilton (how can he even stand for election with his past) winning it is a possibility"

I would have been surprised.
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Old Apr 8th 2019, 3:07 pm
  #104  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Peter Oborne, ex Telegraph and presently Daily Mail political hack cracks in brexit panic.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ope...d-think-again/

TLDR; he was a massive brexitter, but has changed his mind. Still doesn't like the EU much, but acknowledges it's the only game in town, the economic hit of leaving will destroy the economy and that the country must swallow its pride, take a long delay and maybe even cancel it.

The no deal / remain debate is rather like climate change. Public opinion might be split 50/50, but the experts are virtually all on one side of the debate.
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Old Apr 9th 2019, 5:26 am
  #105  
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Default Re: Brexshit

Great idea captain, give up all of our sovereignty to the germans.

British Industry will thrive when we leave, industry is there to serve the citizens (they are the purchasers) , not the other way around.

May's submission treaty (written by the germans), is more of a document given to the losers of a war, not the 5th largest economy.

Despicable, and, more to the point, the politicians are doing their own thing, not representing their constituents wishes, that is a massive, massive betrayal of democracy - surely even you can't disagree with that - the fact that a convicted felon with an "ankle bracelet" is even allowed near the House of Commons beggars belief.

The whole system is broken, it needs someone like Trump to fix it.
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