Brexit Update
 

Enough with the US presidential election.

So what do you think is going to happen? What are your predictions?

Mine: negotiations break down primarily over freedom of movement (EU will not accept any limits, UK will not accept full FOM, partly because of ongoing migrant crisis), UK ends up going for a hard Brexit with a couple quickie trade treaties with Canada/US/Japan/Australia going on simultaneously.

EU citizens in Britain will NOT be given permanent residency but temporary residency (because I have a feeling that in the negotiations the EU will end up refusing to guarantee residency for UK nationals).

Your thoughts?

Re: Brexit Update
 

EU will collapse when the Deutsche Bank has no money and quits wall street.

Germany accepts millions of refugees, and from now on will be called Germanistan.

Everyone who voted for Brexit will move to Aus or Canada, and we will be replaced by Browns, Jews and refugees.

The lefties never get a back bone, the country falls apart and asks how did it happen.

Re: Brexit Update
 

One more: Conservatives win 45+% of the vote in 2019/2020, giving them 400+ seats out of 600 in a reformed Parliament. Labour has around 125.

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I think they'll get a fair % of 4million odd UKIPers back as well

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Do you reckon Conservative support will be dictated by the success of Brexit negotiations or more that there is literally no credible alternative?

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EU is a sinking ship and has been for years, but that doesn't mean that a hard brexit will be easy nor does it mean the EU will cease to exist. Believing so is naive. Force them to change drastically it might however and if it does hopefully into a more sustainable model.

I agree with DXBtoDOH on freedom of movement. This will affect me, but I'm sure I can deal with getting a visa and if I can be arsed (this time around) getting my UK passport.

I also reckon effort will be put into implementing a freezone covering parts of London.

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Under what pretext do you deserve a British passport?

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There is no credible alternative.

Also - don't underestimate the message sent out by TM. The "new" Tory party is a different beast under her - at least that's the direction she's pushing it towards - and one much more attuned to the great central bloc of British voters regardless of Brexit.

The people who will vote Tory will be much more understanding and forgiving of the Brexit outcome, whatever it may be. Those who will never forgive May for Brexit (whatever the outcomes) are mostly those who will never ever vote for her regardless of the circumstances. Even for the right wing Europhiles, what are they going to do? Vote for Corbyn? Who himself has never shown great enthusiasm for the EU and Labour cannot risk campaigning on returning to the EU without destroying the party in the process.

Too many people, particularly on the left, underestimate how unpopular or indifferent towards the EU the majority of Brits were, even among many remainers who voted out of economic fears. As long as May is seen as doing the best she can during the negotiations, and the perception is that the EU is utterly and completely unwilling to compromise on anything that also respects Brexit, she will not be penalised for the final outcome. If anything, it will stiffen resolve against the EU.

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I could ask you the same question buddy...

If you must know I qualified years ago, but didn't take it up as my Norwegian one was just as good and still is for the time being. My wife and kids are all British..

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Born and bred British, nor would i take up a 2nd nationality because it suits me.

Wife and Kids being British does not mean you qualify for a passport (rules have changed), and since your living aboard you will most likely of lost your British Residency. On the limited information you've just given me you won't be able to get a British Passport.

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Also with all the rules changes (even some one as omniscient as me, don't know) i'd take the assumption it won't go in your favour. Maybe the only saving grace is you might have an NI number so you could come here as EU citizen working in UK and then claim residency after 5 years.


Even then you'll never be British, just a passport holder like the rest :)

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Interesting. I agree about credible alternative. It used to be that most Conservative voters would slide to UKIP only if quite far right of centre or particularly anti-EU.

I've never, ever heard mass debate about the EU and it's effectiveness from the majority of the population. It gets knocked occasionally by the tabloids but my Mum never whined about it until the referendum, then it's become the devil incarnate. Still, at least it got people talking.

TM could come out of this very, very well indeed. I already find her completely palatable, she seems very intelligent and confident. I never disliked Cameron, I feel the shit levied at him to be pointless. Similarly, she could come out in worlds of trouble, but I don't think that will be the case.

Lol. Iggle - CEO of UK Border Control, Immigration Services and Passporting Authority.

*Shudders*

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I don't think you get the point keyboard-warrior dumbass. I don't WANT a british passport or citizenship. I want to be able to live with my family. And yes I obviously have NI.

Like I said I haven't looked into the rules so they may have changed, but I don't care. The passport is not a requirement for me..

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tried to get the Lithuanian a British passport, near impossible. Even tho she's lived there over 5 years

My view on immigration is this.

If you are degree educated and can contribute, (like Norksy) come in
If you look like emily ratajkowski, come in
If your Ajesh's housewife from Islamabad, thank you but no thanks.

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Im just trolling, trying to see if you'll bite :rofl: :lol:

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I honestly wouldn't have a clue what the rules / regs are for passports.

But your views are interesting. I like the second point, the other two I don't know what to say really. The first is irrelevant, because low skilled immigration is needed. The last, I think, is basically your situation....no?

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I don't believe you. Not that it matters

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The EU is a changing force. The EU today was not the EU of the 1990s or the early 2000s, for example. The Lisbon and Maastricht treaties were unpopular enough among a segment of the population but at the same time Labour was in firm control so there was no central voice to oppose the treaties. The economy was also booming, things were great, you really couldn't observe or experience the influence of the EU, so why rock the boat even if on a level you didn't agree with the sovereignty issue. It was all still mostly abstract issues and revolutions are never fought over abstract concepts.

But then Freedom of Movement began in 2004 and accelerated from there and the longer it went on the more unpopular the EU became / the more fearful many people became. It was probably the FOM in 2004 that for the first time people became very aware of what the power of the EU really meant - it moved from being abstract concepts that was out of sight and out of mind into an entity that was very real and clearly had powers beyond British voters and sovereignty. Then we had the financial crisis in 2008 and the Greek crisis, followed by the migrant crisis of 2015, none of which the EU handled well - the migrant crisis is especially telling as one single person, Angela Merkel, made a decision that not only contravened existing EU laws but demonstrated how one person, who was not British, could make a decision that radically affected the UK.

The more visible the EU and EU policies became - certainly the more controversial the topic became. So it's no surprising that when Cameron promised the referendum, which was the *first time* a genuine national debate on the EU was offered to the British public, people suddenly became much more outspoken on the topic. Because the opportunity presented itself. You had a real *choice* for once.

Cameron got a lot of flak he didn't deserve (as all PMs do) and he was a sincere man in his own way, but May clearly has principles and people recognise and resonate with her principles. She's firmly rooted in Middle Britain and understands their aspirations, fears and frustrations for she's not an outsider looking at them as Cameron was (similarly so is Corby is for the left, hence his strong popularity among the left if only the left). Does the May - Cameron divide make a difference? Yes, I would say it does. We can go on more about it but I don't want to bore people ;)

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I got bored of Scandi girls growing up. They are all duplicates and yes I tried every country just to be sure :p. Boring as ****.

My wife is one of those you are afraid of. Second generation!

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Interesting. I think the EU has been blamed for failing as a result of other issues, '08 financial crisis for example. The EU was rock solid against Greece, whilst they bailed them out as a unit should, they've been pretty savage. The support for Greece is dwindling and rightly so, they haven't done a great deal to help themselves. What else can the EU do?

Regarding things like the migrant crisis, we haven't opened the floodgates and we haven't been forced to open the doors to all. We've got some of the lowest immigration stats and the lowest requirements set out by the EU.

Distribution of refugees is quite fair in terms of countries taking a share of responsibility. It's just that some countries are more appealing than others (Germany, UK etc).

UKIP have always been looked at as a nonsense party who just proffer bullshit. Until recently. The Migrant crisis I believe has been the turning point...it's moved both left and right towards the leave vote which is why it garnered so much support so quickly. People then managed to justify their vote in any which way with that gut feeling and pride and nationalistic tendency that we all have deep down.

Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE to see the UK flourish as an independent nation but I really worry that it won't. I don't think this vote was anything other than predominantly anti-immigration. Whether folk like my Mum admit it, it definitely played a key role in why she voted leave.

Anyway, old ground mate.

I have faith in May. I believe she's smart and savvy and will play the game to get what we need for Britain, not just conceded.

But we all know the end result is both sides pointing the finger that they've won more. Even closer to home remain and leave voters will point the finger that they've failed and won in different areas and all that shit.

This saga goes well beyond 2019 eh.

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But the EU holds a lot of responsibility for what happened in Greece. Greece like many other countries completely fudged their figures to meet the entry criteria for joining the Euro. The EU knew this and did nothing to stop it because it would have meant the Euro would have been stillborn.

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Interesting. I doubt there are many countries in the EU that haven't played the game like that, or don't still do it.

I'm very glad we never joined the Euro.

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correct. most of the countries entering the Euro only did so by massaging their figures. practically none of them would have been able to meet the criteria without doing so.

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Come on Norm, that's a lazy chart. Its a lower percentage of a higher overall total world GDP. Of course the developing countries like Russia/China/Asia etc were going to take back their own percentage of GDP.

Also the commonwealth includes the like of India, who I don't believe are queuing up to credit the UK for their growth :lol:

The chart could be more accurately titled the hunt for confirmation bias.

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Embarrassing

Calais children: Children without UK links among 70 new arrivals - BBC News

Even putting up scaffolding and netting because we can tell that these aren't kids. Wasn't there a bomb found in London yday as well? I guess it'll be mental issues, bullied from a kid story...

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Yes. All western economies have. I have a great chart showing the growth of emerging markets really outpacing the west.

The fact is that they are catching up and the world is normalising. Peak income and wealth disparity has passed. the west will find increasing pressure on living standards going forward. Protectionism can only go so far.

The US has done better than Europe for sure. But they are facing the same issues.

Australia might as well be an emerging economy given its heavily (almost) sole reliance in resource exports.

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Don't even get me started

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It's merely a reflection of the world-turned-upside-down nature of things today that Tories are now basically in favour of state subsidies, despite having spent my lifetime insisting that the state should not subsidise industry.

Because subsidies have to be the bottom line with the Nissan deal. Nissan's overriding concern will obviously have been about remaining within the single market and customs union, but the government cannot make any assurances whatsoever about that.

So all it can logically have done is promise that the taxpayer will compensate Nissan for increased costs post-Brexit if it turns out that it will have to pay tariffs and deal with cross-border customs and rules of origin for its parts.

The fact that the government is so desperate not to reveal the substance of the deal is obviously extremely telling, but then it could not afford to let such a prominent employer in a depressed part of the country be the first to relocate to continental Europe to protect itself from Brexit - it would have been politically catastrophic. So it will have been a "we will do whatever's necessary to convince you to stay" deal, and that will have meant a promise of taxpayers' money, lots of it.

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It's called having a national industrial policy.... something that has been glaringly missing in the last few decades.

It's the government's job to help anticipate and mitigate disruptions to the economy. If, and this is still a big if without any evidence, Theresa May and her mandarins promised oodles of money or support to Nissan to remain in Britain during a period of potential economic instability, that seems like a fair responsibility on the government's part. Whatever the political machinery behind the scenery, the announcement from Nissan is a big coup for the Brexiters and a testament of faith in the country.

As it is, May is promising a quite different type of Tory government. And speaking as a former pro-neoliberal I rather like it. Interesting times we live in.

Don't fall into the trap like so many do of criticising the government for doing something while simultaneously criticising the government for doing nothing.

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What else did they have the power to offer that would actually have meant something solid to Nissan?

Obviously, Nissan's overriding concern will have been about remaining within the single market and customs union, but the government cannot make any promises at all about that.

And of course, Nissan is going to be completely hard-headed about this. It will have run the numbers, it knows exactly how much it stands to lose if it finds itself outside the single market and customs union. It won't have been bought off with the kind of jingoistic flag-waving bullshit that won the referendum, it will have wanted rock-solid assurances that translate though to a balance sheet.

So you don't need to be a genius to work out that all the government could have done is promise that the taxpayer will compensate Nissan for increased costs post-Brexit if it turns out that it will have to pay tariffs and deal with cross-border customs and rules of origin for its parts. And that will, of course, be no small bill - and that's just one company. What about the others? You think they're not going to want the same thing? How much is all this going to end up costing the taxpayer? £350m a week, perhaps?

Well, which multinational company *wouldn't* have faith in the UK if they'd just been promised truckloads of taxpayers' cash as a guarantee against increased costs?

Of course, this is just the first example of the true cost of Brexit. Why, do you think, were the Leavers not upfront about this during the referendum? Why weren't they convinced enough of their case to be truthful and say "This isn't going to be plain sailing, the likelihood of serious economic harm in the short to medium term is high and it could easily cost us an awful lot of money in sweeteners and guarantees to keep major employers here if we pull out of the single market completely, but we think it's worth it"?

Well, we all know why, don't we? The truth would have been too dangerous, too likely to lose them votes. People don't like being told the painful truth, they'd rather hear an appealing lie.

It's the fact that this has been quite nakedly done to save their political necks. They could not afford to let such a prominent employer in a depressed part of the country be the first to relocate to continental Europe to protect itself from Brexit, it would have been politically catastrophic - and socially catastrophic too of course, but the Tories have never been too concerned about the social cost of their policies in the past, and especially not in the north of England.

This was all about saving themselves, and the Brexit project, on a political level. Pure partisan self-interest, because if Nissan had chosen to relocate, it would have blown an irrepairable hole in both the government and Brexit.

Re: Brexit Update
 

staying in the EU hasn't exactly helped the British Motor Industry. Ford Transit production moved from Southampton to Turkey after the EU Euro 190 million to Ford to build the Turkish plant.
Jaguar and Peugeot moved production to Solvakia due to state aid much of which comes from EU Development grants

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Who's involved in building the new JLR plant in Slovakia though? British firms.

If we had the skilled labour and lower costs, we could compete.

Leaving the EU won't make that change.

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We do now have lower costs. The UK (outside of London) is remarkably cheap these days.

Skilled and willingness to work is the issue.

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Average Net Salary in Slovakia is Euro 738 per month. Net Salary on the UK Legal minimum wage based on 40 hours a week is about 1200 Euros

Difficult to compete in costs with Eastern European countries. Also difficult to compete with skilled labour when EU development grants are funding training in those countries

in 2013 Slovakia received more that 1 Billion Euros more that it contributed to the EU

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Minimum wage vs Slovakia surely is higher?

Willingness to work isn't a problem in the UK? Surely? We've got millions of folk who aren't employed who are just desperate to graft for a living...right?

No?

Oh. Best blame some immigrants then. :blink:

:sarcasm:

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Pretty the UK doesn't have any shortage of people willing to take jobs in industries like car manufacture.

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So if you're JLR, owned by a non-British, publically listed organisation you would build your plant in the UK and spend more money operating it than you had to, just....because....well....it's nicer? Or the brand is 'British'?

Out of interest is there a direct link between EU grants to a nation then being used for something like this? I suppose the positive if so is that it keeps the manufacturing in the EU rather than losing it elsewhere in the world.

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It cannot be direct as it would break the state aid rules. But there are many ways the state can help without the rules.

Example... you can build a plant in some cheap ass part of town. You wouldn't naturally want to build there as there is no associated infrastructure... No problem, the government will build all that for you... trains, ports, roads, power upgrades.

In effect the subsidy is there as you got the land cheap, and cheap labour - but it's not direct aid and it would be classified as development. You might even get some cheap power.

UK's infrastructure is creaking badly - look at the M1, very slow, narrow road with roadworks on substantial portions of it for over 10 years. Airports are at capacity, little spare capacity in the power grid. It's actually a bit of a worry. But we do have a lot of Costas ;) These are concerns.

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Assumed as much.

The M1? Who cares, it only goes up North. ;)
I worry less about the roads but more about the power in the UK. I honestly don't see much in way of genuine solutions other than things like Hinkley.

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Even Egypt has more installed spare capacity (as a percentage) than us (although no gas to put in the plants!). Ideally you want around 20% spare on the grid, although this rarely happens (Japan must have had more when they were quickly able to sustain power when they closed off the nukes).

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