31 October 2019

Old Aug 6th 2019, 12:23 pm
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Default 31 October 2019

What will happen.

EU blinks and we get a deal? Crash out without a deal? VONC in Parliament? Boris goes rogue? Election schedule for November right after we leave? Queen steps in?

Many wild speculations running rampant in the political world. What's yours?
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Old Aug 6th 2019, 1:17 pm
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

I expect some sort of half arsed / cobbled deal that covers some bits but not everything.

People seem to have forgotten the 'deal' is just short term, it's to help bridge the gap between leaving and making proper agreements on things. If we'd left when we were meant to in March we'd be almost a quarter of the way through that process.

There is a part of me that wants the No Deal route to happen. Just to see what indeed does happen, or not happen. It's the most exciting route isn't it? Something's got to stop the purgatory.

What do you think and/or want?
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Old Aug 6th 2019, 3:02 pm
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

The way things have progressed it looks undoubtedly like a no deal. Have friends that work in Whitehall and the assumption is that we will be crashing out.
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Old Aug 6th 2019, 3:11 pm
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

I’m hoping for no deal, an aggressive foreign policy and my boat back.
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Old Aug 6th 2019, 6:47 pm
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
I expect some sort of half arsed / cobbled deal that covers some bits but not everything.

People seem to have forgotten the 'deal' is just short term, it's to help bridge the gap between leaving and making proper agreements on things. If we'd left when we were meant to in March we'd be almost a quarter of the way through that process.

There is a part of me that wants the No Deal route to happen. Just to see what indeed does happen, or not happen. It's the most exciting route isn't it? Something's got to stop the purgatory.

What do you think and/or want?
It'd require the EU to reopen the withdrawal agreement, which they have said they won't ad infinitum. Because it'd mean forcing Ireland to back down from the border question and accept some degree of a hard border and the EU is reluctant to do that because of their theoretical support for small member states. We will see if that's true or not.

I have a feeling it will be a hard brexit, no deal, and there will never be a deal. EU can't even approve of the Canadian trade deal. Even if Johnson gets a majority in the next GE and sells the DUP down the river, something else will come up to block the deal.

Last edited by DXBtoDOH; Aug 6th 2019 at 6:50 pm.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 3:34 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

I'm hoping for the exchange rate to tank even more so I can transfer my savings/house fund from USD to GBP.

Scottish independence could be good too, one of the main drawbacks of voting Yes last time around was that it would cause the economy in Scotland to be screwed. If it's going to be screwed anyway now, might as well just go for it and ride it out.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 3:46 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
It'd require the EU to reopen the withdrawal agreement, which they have said they won't ad infinitum. Because it'd mean forcing Ireland to back down from the border question and accept some degree of a hard border and the EU is reluctant to do that because of their theoretical support for small member states. We will see if that's true or not.

I have a feeling it will be a hard brexit, no deal, and there will never be a deal. EU can't even approve of the Canadian trade deal. Even if Johnson gets a majority in the next GE and sells the DUP down the river, something else will come up to block the deal.
A no deal also means a hard border and Ireland thrown under the bus.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 5:07 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
It'd require the EU to reopen the withdrawal agreement, which they have said they won't ad infinitum. Because it'd mean forcing Ireland to back down from the border question and accept some degree of a hard border and the EU is reluctant to do that because of their theoretical support for small member states. We will see if that's true or not.

I have a feeling it will be a hard brexit, no deal, and there will never be a deal. EU can't even approve of the Canadian trade deal. Even if Johnson gets a majority in the next GE and sells the DUP down the river, something else will come up to block the deal.
Yeah, I think the EU are slightly more pragmatic than that, if their patience hasn't run out already. But they're well within their own rights to say no, **** off that's it......Just like the UK negotiating parties can do the same on any or all points.

It's been reported that Brexit has already cost the UK £66bn. It's only going to get worse.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 5:21 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
Yeah, I think the EU are slightly more pragmatic than that, if their patience hasn't run out already. But they're well within their own rights to say no, **** off that's it......Just like the UK negotiating parties can do the same on any or all points.

It's been reported that Brexit has already cost the UK £66bn. It's only going to get worse.
Not sure of your source for the 66b, but I don't doubt it. Had the government started this process with a genuine will to exit, I suspect the cost would have been somewhat lower. Its the constant challenges and people gaining political advantage out of the process that have delayed things and ultimately led to the current situation. I'm 80% sure it'll be a no deal and while I was originally in favor of a deal driven exit, I am now firmly behind get the F%$3 out anyway we can and stop the mess.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 6:14 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by TheShed View Post
Not sure of your source for the 66b, but I don't doubt it. Had the government started this process with a genuine will to exit, I suspect the cost would have been somewhat lower. Its the constant challenges and people gaining political advantage out of the process that have delayed things and ultimately led to the current situation. I'm 80% sure it'll be a no deal and while I was originally in favor of a deal driven exit, I am now firmly behind get the F%$3 out anyway we can and stop the mess.
S&P Ratings - Link

I agree with your last sentence. It's time to rip the rest of the plaster off, deal with the pain, ****ing grow a set and get back up.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 6:59 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
S&P Ratings - Link

I agree with your last sentence. It's time to rip the rest of the plaster off, deal with the pain, ****ing grow a set and get back up.
Pretty weak analysis to be fair. The doppelganger estimate and PMI data.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 7:01 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
Pretty weak analysis to be fair. The doppelganger estimate and PMI data.
Meh, it's better than any of our research.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 9:07 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
I’m hoping for no deal, an aggressive foreign policy and my boat back.
We're in no fit state to resurrect the British Empire.

I'm also curious to see what a No Deal brings. Got a stash of Saudi Riyals waiting to be exchanged into Sterling, but tempted to hang on til 1st Nov to see just how badly the exchange rates will drop.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 10:21 am
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by nottmbantam View Post
We're in no fit state to resurrect the British Empire.

I'm also curious to see what a No Deal brings. Got a stash of Saudi Riyals waiting to be exchanged into Sterling, but tempted to hang on til 1st Nov to see just how badly the exchange rates will drop.
I'd keep an eye on the rate between now and then. Don't forget that traders tend to "sell on the rumor and buy on the news".

By the time that everyone agrees its going ahead, it'll be priced in for retail investors and could even bounce if its not as cataclysmic as project fear would have us believe.
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Old Aug 7th 2019, 12:18 pm
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Default Re: 31 October 2019

Originally Posted by nottmbantam View Post
We're in no fit state to resurrect the British Empire.

I'm also curious to see what a No Deal brings. Got a stash of Saudi Riyals waiting to be exchanged into Sterling, but tempted to hang on til 1st Nov to see just how badly the exchange rates will drop.
Mildly curious. Do remainers genuinely believe that Brexiteers want to resurrect the British Empire (the same Empire that bled Britain dry)?
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