British Expats

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-   The Sand Pit (https://britishexpats.com/forum/sand-pit-116/)
-   -   1.26 and falling (https://britishexpats.com/forum/sand-pit-116/1-26-falling-884275/)

Millhouse Oct 12th 2016 2:13 am

Re: 1.26 and falling
 
They won't raise rates. The housing market is too fragile.

TheShed Oct 12th 2016 6:27 am

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12074726)
They won't raise rates. The housing market is too fragile.

Good call Milly. 0.5% on base equals a Florida style 2009 on U.K. Banks.

If that happened, I short GBPUSD to .9

lightandbitter2 Oct 12th 2016 7:35 am

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12074726)
They won't raise rates. The housing market is too fragile.

Not convinced, Sterling through the floor, Gilt yields through the roof, inflation on its way......

Changing direction on the base rate may be the only option.

plus it will piss the EU off no end

lightandbitter2 Oct 12th 2016 5:34 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 
http://news.sky.com/story/tesco-pulls-brands-such-as-marmite-amid-unilever-price-row-10614934

Inflation

Fossildog Oct 12th 2016 5:39 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by lightandbitter2 (Post 12075366)
http://news.sky.com/story/tesco-pulls-brands-such-as-marmite-amid-unilever-price-row-10614934

Inflation


A 100% UK sourced and produced product? It is almost as if Unilever are seeking extra profit whilst conveniently blaming Brexit

Millhouse Oct 12th 2016 6:28 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by lightandbitter2 (Post 12075035)
Not convinced, Sterling through the floor, Gilt yields through the roof, inflation on its way......

Changing direction on the base rate may be the only option.

plus it will piss the EU off no end

I still think rate cuts before rises. You need to jack up the rates a lot to make a difference as the 80s showed us. The issue we have is political risk, not economic. Economic policy cannot fix political policy.

Millhouse Oct 12th 2016 6:30 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Fossildog (Post 12075370)
A 100% UK sourced and produced product? It is almost as if Unilever are seeking extra profit whilst conveniently blaming Brexit

Could you imagine if the brits were forced to eat only what is produced domestically...

cheese, marmite, bread and ale.

Actually, doesn't sound so bad.

Bermudashorts Oct 12th 2016 6:48 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by KJinDoha (Post 12071887)
Without any positive political announcements (on trade deals and market access), I fear the £ will continue stumbling. Which is of course terrible for the UK residents, and for UK assets. How bad to we think the impact [inflation] will get?

For those of us earning in Dollar/pegged and planing to eventually repatriate this is a good boost to our remittances. But should we hold off, as it doesn't seem to have bottomed?

My personal view is that £ will take 2 decades to recover, if the current political situation endures!

I am a UK resident and nothing terrible has happened to me since the pound started falling. It happens from time to time, but my life is in £ and there is enough competition in the UK economy for me to not worry too much about price rises. Haven't noticed anything so far either.

I am going on holiday to DisneyWorld Florida next year, my flights were bought in £, my hotel cost has been agreed in £ and I got the dining plan. So I only have to worry about my Mickey Mouse themed souvenirs costing a bit more than they might have done. Otherwise, nope nothing terrible has happened.

Currencies don't typically take twenty years to recover. People say that all the time when they see a drop, but it inevitably start to go the other way and sometimes just as quick. In this case though, like the poster above, I think it could be about two years of weak sterling.

iggle Oct 12th 2016 6:50 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12075400)
Could you imagine if the brits were forced to eat only what is produced domestically...

cheese, marmite, bread and ale.

Actually, doesn't sound so bad.

and curry. So many indians

DXBtoDOH Oct 12th 2016 7:26 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 
True.

One of my American friends pointed out that the EU-USD was at 1.4 USD to the euro just a few years ago and now it's at 1.1.

The USD went through a fairly long period when it was very weak relative to other currencies but now it's strong again. Swings come and go. And it doesn't always overlap economic realities on the ground.


Originally Posted by Bermudashorts (Post 12075411)
I am a UK resident and nothing terrible has happened to me since the pound started falling. It happens from time to time, but my life is in £ and there is enough competition in the UK economy for me to not worry too much about price rises. Haven't noticed anything so far either.

I am going on holiday to DisneyWorld Florida next year, my flights were bought in £, my hotel cost has been agreed in £ and I got the dining plan. So I only have to worry about my Mickey Mouse themed souvenirs costing a bit more than they might have done. Otherwise, nope nothing terrible has happened.

Currencies don't typically take twenty years to recover. People say that all the time when they see a drop, but it inevitably start to go the other way and sometimes just as quick. In this case though, like the poster above, I think it could be about two years of weak sterling.


IKnowNothing Oct 12th 2016 7:37 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by iggle (Post 12075414)
and curry. So many indians

Weirdly enough, most of the curry houses are run by Bangladeshis, not Indians.

KJinDoha Oct 12th 2016 7:58 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Bermudashorts (Post 12075411)
I am a UK resident and nothing terrible has happened to me since the pound started falling. It happens from time to time, but my life is in £ and there is enough competition in the UK economy for me to not worry too much about price rises. Haven't noticed anything so far either.

I am going on holiday to DisneyWorld Florida next year, my flights were bought in £, my hotel cost has been agreed in £ and I got the dining plan. So I only have to worry about my Mickey Mouse themed souvenirs costing a bit more than they might have done. Otherwise, nope nothing terrible has happened.

Currencies don't typically take twenty years to recover. People say that all the time when they see a drop, but it inevitably start to go the other way and sometimes just as quick. In this case though, like the poster above, I think it could be about two years of weak sterling.

I admire your confidence.

I have my doubts that international airlines and hotels can absorb the losses of maintaining their £ product prices. I think inflation is inevitable at this point.

iggle Oct 12th 2016 8:09 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 
When will WW3 happen? I'll need to book time of work for it, no doubt it'll get rejected.

Fossildog Oct 12th 2016 8:58 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by iggle (Post 12075456)
When will WW3 happen? I'll need to book time of work for it, no doubt it'll get rejected.

November the 9th according to the Democrats

Millhouse Oct 12th 2016 10:12 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 
http://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy...3nL8N1CJ22LX2/

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A legal bid to force the British government to seek parliamentary approval before starting the formal process of leaving the European Union began on Thursday, with ministers calling it an anti-democratic tactic to delay Brexit.


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