British Expats

British Expats (https://britishexpats.com/forum/)
-   The Sand Pit (https://britishexpats.com/forum/sand-pit-116/)
-   -   1.26 and falling (https://britishexpats.com/forum/sand-pit-116/1-26-falling-884275/)

mission Oct 9th 2016 12:22 am

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by iggle (Post 12071966)
Are you not worried about your job? What your view of the future of the price of the barrel?

Globally we have already trimmed down as much as we can in terms of employees and overhead costs right across the board.


I am the FC for the ME region and so I look after 3 different entities within the parent company (2 in the UAE and 1 in Qatar). 2 of the 3 entities are doing well (Alhumdulillaah) and the 3rd entity (which generates the lowest sales compared to the other two) is just about breaking even. And so unless all 3 companies go completely under water, my position is safe:fingerscrossed:

KJinDoha Oct 9th 2016 1:00 am

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12071965)
We all got 8pct this year.

That is great, I got nothing - one of the downsides of no unions.

8% is a great increase, and probably in line with general inflation.

Millhouse Oct 9th 2016 4:53 am

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by KJinDoha (Post 12071998)
That is great, I got nothing - one of the downsides of no unions.

8% is a great increase, and probably in line with general inflation.

I could have been clearer. 8pct was the average. Some more, some less.

Millhouse goes from boom to bust but is never average.

scrubbedexpat141 Oct 9th 2016 4:32 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by littlejimmy (Post 12070654)
Gizza job...;)


Originally Posted by commander (Post 12070657)
keep on dropping!!

Hello Gents. Good to see your names pop up.


Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12071905)
Most countries crave a weak currency. The Brits obsession with the strong pound is the main issue.

A weak currency would solve a lot of the UKs problems.

Viva la Industrial Revolution 2

Dunno about this. Weak might help short term but the inflation won't.

Somewhere in the middle, you know, a normal currency that allows some manufacturing on decent scale but also doesn't mean we're fleeced when importing.


Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12071965)
We all got 8pct this year. Thought that was quite reasonable. Although it only equates to a handful of peanuts and a packet of crisps.

8pct is a good average. We weren't included in this years for a very spurious and bullshit reason so we'll be 18-20 months before we have the conversation. Will be gunning for a good one.

Similarly, have already started preparing my bonus dicsussions. It goes like this;
"Please can I have my full bonus"
"Yes Scamp"
"Thank you"


Originally Posted by KJinDoha (Post 12071998)
That is great, I got nothing - one of the downsides of no unions.

Downsides of no unions? :blink::blink::blink::huh::huh:

Millhouse Oct 9th 2016 5:40 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12072435)

Dunno about this. Weak might help short term but the inflation won't :huh:

Well This is the paradox. Advanced economies have been trying to create inflation since the 2008 financial crisis with little to no effect. The only thing they managed to inflate was house prices which are ultimately destructive.

Some inflation will help with the debt overhang. We are not talking Zimbabwe inflation here.

iggle Oct 9th 2016 5:52 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12072460)
Well This is the paradox. Advanced economies have been trying to create inflation since the 2008 financial crisis with little to no effect. The only thing they managed to inflate was house prices which are ultimately destructive.

Some inflation will help with the debt overhang. We are not talking Zimbabwe inflation here.

Millhouse remember the days when the Germans would burn their wages, because it was cheaper than buying wood?

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com...7667507315.jpg

scrubbedexpat141 Oct 9th 2016 6:10 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12072460)
Well This is the paradox. Advanced economies have been trying to create inflation since the 2008 financial crisis with little to no effect. The only thing they managed to inflate was house prices which are ultimately destructive.

Some inflation will help with the debt overhang. We are not talking Zimbabwe inflation here.

Of course not, but it's such a fine balancing act isn't it. Pre-During-Post Brexit are we going to be able to find some sort of sensible levels of either?

House prices are a ****ing joke though. I blame the baby-boomers who got everything handed on a plate and could buy a house at 18yrs old for 16 pence.

Millhouse Oct 9th 2016 6:31 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12072476)
Of course not, but it's such a fine balancing act isn't it. Pre-During-Post Brexit are we going to be able to find some sort of sensible levels of either?

House prices are a ****ing joke though. I blame the baby-boomers who got everything handed on a plate and could buy a house at 18yrs old for 16 pence.

The issue really is lax lending and near zero interest rates. 3pct rental yields on housing is terrible but only possible when the interest rates are near zero. And im not sure we will ever see high interest rates in advanced economies again.

scrubbedexpat141 Oct 9th 2016 6:46 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12072482)
The issue really is lax lending and near zero interest rates. 3pct rental yields on housing is terrible but only possible when the interest rates are near zero. And im not sure we will ever see high interest rates in advanced economies again.

True. House prices have rocketed.
Can't see them ever dropping much though. Even in 2008 they hardly plummeted like equities.

Millhouse Oct 9th 2016 6:55 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12072486)
True. House prices have rocketed.
Can't see them ever dropping much though. Even in 2008 they hardly plummeted like equities.

Exactly why inflation in the real economy with be welcomed by policy makers. House prices have a chance of devalue in real terms without any politically embarrassing nominal reductions.

weasel decentral Oct 9th 2016 7:05 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12072489)
Exactly why inflation in the real economy with be welcomed by policy makers. House prices have a chance of devalue in real terms without any politically embarrassing nominal reductions.

Go on then what's real terms? Do you expect wages to rise while house prices are stationary, or real terms when measured against the dollar or euro?

KJinDoha Oct 9th 2016 7:15 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12072435)
Downsides of no unions? :blink::blink::blink::huh::huh:

My experience is that there are few organised bodies here that operate as employee unions to act on our behalf, such as to agree pay T&Cs.

scrubbedexpat141 Oct 9th 2016 7:20 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12072489)
Exactly why inflation in the real economy with be welcomed by policy makers. House prices have a chance of devalue in real terms without any politically embarrassing nominal reductions.

Potentially. But the supply / demand basics still seem to lean towards prices staying relatively strong?


Originally Posted by KJinDoha (Post 12072495)
My experience is that there are few organised bodies here that operate as employee unions to act on our behalf, such as to agree pay T&Cs.

It's a funny place here though isn't it. People can and do move jobs more frequently and are dropped by companies relatively easily. Unions would just be squashed.

KJinDoha Oct 9th 2016 7:22 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12072486)
Can't see them ever dropping much though

House prices will need to drop for the British society at large. The question is how and when.

It is clear that the current government will not want to get on the wrong side of the landlords, so they are not regulating enough (for example to build the number of houses that is needed or to really tax landlords). Perhaps the population and economy size post brexit will help.

In any case the market will inevitably correct when Toxic mortgages, due to fundamental un-affordability and lender greed, overflow. The question is, when will this happen?

KJinDoha Oct 9th 2016 7:39 pm

Re: 1.26 and falling
 

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12072486)
Even in 2008 they hardly plummeted like equities.

And thank goodness! It is the equities markets that caused the majority of the damage. Over stretched institutions failed, tax money bailed some banks, leading to massive job losses and a nose dive in sentiment.

At least the housing market has a tangible value and serves an every day purpose. That's why it never plummeted.

In the next correction - the equities and such like are being tightly regulated so the damage will be spread towards housing. Who does that help?... the Bankers!


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