Following up to Frank F. Matthews

    > You are constructing it right now in
    >your back yard from Leggos.

Isn't that in Greece?
--
Mike Reid
"Art is the lie that reveals the truth" P.Picasso
Wasdale-Lake district-Thames path-London "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap

Following up to Olivers

    >While we might argue constantly over the state of Cuban economy and the
    >financial outlook for Cubans, the bottom line is that as long as Fidel
    >Castro or a government drawn from successors who emulate his policies
    >remains in place, Cuba's economy and Cubans will lag behind the country's
    >economic potential (punished as it were for the sins of its masters, an
    >undeserved fate for most Cubans, and one not easily avoided).

If US had lifted its sanctions years ago Cuba would probably not
now be either poor or communist.
--
Mike Reid
"Art is the lie that reveals the truth" P.Picasso
Wasdale-Lake district-Thames path-London "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap

The Reids extrapolated from data available...


    >
    > If US had lifted its sanctions years ago Cuba would probably not
    > now be either poor or communist.

If you really believe that, it may be time to change your prescription.

Until 1990 at least Castro and his Soviet partners would have created their
own "embargo" in the same sense that Eastern European states certainly had
tightly controlled access and economies which lagged decades behind the
rest of the Western world. After 1991, unless some country were willing to
face international opprobrium by sponsoring (or actually participating in)
a well funded and equipped insurgency, certain to be lengthy and bloody,
much worse PR than Iraq or Viet Nam, there was not going to be an internal
opposition with even a fraction of the popular strength necessary to
overthrow Fidel. A major problem which faces any post Castro government
continues to be the potential financial claims from the children and
grandchildren of middle class Cubans who suffered expropriation. It's one
thing to confiscate a sugar mill, but it wasn't just the rich who were
called upon to enrich the state with their assets.

Can you imagine the inevitable settling of personal scores that will come
with the institution of a new government, be it repressive or anarchist,
socialist or laissez faire capitalist? Some observant political scientists
might claim that it would take a couple of decades to elevate Cubans to a
state of grace and readiness for participatory democracy.

Comparing Cuba to the Dominican Republic and Haiti seems pretty
unrealistic. In 1959, Cuba's economy and society (even under a petty
tyrant - former Army sergeant) were immeasurably more healthy than those of
either. The Dominican Republic has made substantial strides since
1965 or so (starting pretty far back, with a sort of familial set of
dictators who spent more on their wardrobes and decorations than on
infrastructure or education), while Haiti's strides have been almost as
great, simply backwards toward the Stone Age, it turning out that even a
RCatholic priest, the status of his frock questionable, can be expected to
employ repression and violence at about the same level as professed
dictators. I'm sure that Padre Aristide's Swiss depositories are
adequately filled to allow comfortable asylum. I wouldn't want the
SAfrican taxpayer to have to maintain his inevitably lavish and high
security villa. Better and cheaper perhaps that the US had not dispatched
a corporal's guard to whisk him out of the country, and simply left him at
the palace, where the advancing mob could have been counted upon to hack
him into convenient souvenir sized gobbets. Damned for "forcing" him to
leave, we would have been even more greatly damned had we allowed him to be
sliced and diced, Haiti's traditional treatment of rulers who overstay
their days in the sun. And the gentle Swiss would have never sent the
money back to Haiti, likely melding it with other ill-gotten gains from a
century of depositors who met their ends before presenting their checks.


TMO

In article <[email protected] >,
[email protected] (George W. Russell) wrote:

    > Cars will come to Saigon just as they did everywhere else --
    > eventually. The only limiting factor is cost. After all, Vietnamese
    > are only in their first generation of mass motorcycle ownership.

They're alredy predicting car ownership for China, which also is heavily
reliant on bicycles.

On Fri, 14 May 2004 20:48:34 GMT, poldy <[email protected]> wrote:

    >They're alredy predicting car ownership for China, which also is heavily
    >reliant on bicycles.

Just saw, IIRC, a PBS Nova program which followed a young Beijing
couple through the car buying experience. Evidently it's a booming
business in some cities, complete with car salesmen who tell
half-truths. And, according to some, it's getting to be too dangerous
to ride a bike with all the motor traffic.

Gordon

Sjoerd wrote:

    > > Can you imagine how well the economy and
    > > the lives of Cubans would be, especially given the natural advantages of
    > > geography and skills, had they had been able to lose Castro y amigos,
    > About as good as Haiti or the Dominican Republic perhaps?


Castro's revolution *really* benefited the poor and rural folk, who were
living in horrendous and even slave - like conditions (thanks in large part
to US companies like United Fruit, etc.) Much of the Cuban middle and upper
classes (who had a prosperous US - style lifestyle) fled because they lost
everything when Castro came to power...they had nothing to lose by going to
Miami or wherever.

The poor and rural folk are still pretty poor materially speaking but unlike
other Third World poor they have access to free education, health care, etc.
That's why Castro is still fairly popular among that strata of people...he
gave the downtrodden some real dignity.

In a best case scenario Cuba without a revolution *might* have turned out
something like today's Costa Rica (admittedly though that is a real
stretch, given the propensity of the US to meddle in Cuba). In 1959 Cuba
ranked (comparativly speaking and in urban areas) high in many indicators as
compared to most other Latin American/Caribbean nations....

Given the drug presence in the Caribbean and the always present Cuban
corruption, I think today in an alternative timeline capitalist Cuba a lot
of the Cuban economy would be "narco - driven"...the US mafia were well -
entrenched pre - 1959 and they ran the drugs, prostitution, money
laundering, gambling etc. rackets (this was largely in response to US govt.
crackdowns on the Mob in Las Vegas and elsewhere).

I might have to post a "what if" about this subject on soc.history.what-if
;-)

--
Best
Greg

poldy wote:

    > They're alredy predicting car ownership for China, which also is heavily
    > reliant on bicycles.


IIRC Shanghai has recently banned bicycles on many major streets (per a
_New York Times_ article from a few months back). And guess how many
people are in many of those shiny new Passats and Buicks that the newly -
affluent Chinese are buying? Yep, you guessed it: *one*....

One of the first goals of many newly affluent people everywhere is to buy a
car (viz the ex - USSR and it's former European satellites).

--
Best
Greg

George W. Russell <[email protected]> wrote:
    > Miguel Cruz <[email protected]> wrote:
    >> The closest thing to a real car-free city I've seen is Saigon. Millions
    >> of people and in many parts of town you'll only see one car for every 500
    >> mopeds. Cars are so slow there that they're only used by people for whom
    >> the prestige value is worth the wait.
    >>
    >> Which points to the eventual reason why many cities will probably have to do
    >> without cars: In places with truly high population density, the cars just
    >> won't fit. Saigon's streets are completely saturated already with vehicles
    >> that are nimbler and 1/8 the size of cars. Replace them and you'll have
    >> permanent and total gridlock.
    > I go to Saigon once or twice a year and each time I can't fail notice
    > the seemingly huge increase in the number of private four-wheeled
    > vehicles in the city.
    > Cars will come to Saigon just as they did everywhere else --
    > eventually. The only limiting factor is cost.

I disagree. The density on the streets is just too high. Cars won't fit. Now
you see 200 a day instead of 10 a few years ago, but that rate of growth
can't go on indefinitely.

The main roads are already incredibly wide, and they're packed solid with
machines that fit about 8 times as many people per unit of road space as
cars.

miguel
--
Hit The Road! Photos and tales from around the world: http://travel.u.nu

Miguel Cruz <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
    > George W. Russell <[email protected]> wrote:
    > > Miguel Cruz <[email protected]> wrote:
    > >> The closest thing to a real car-free city I've seen is Saigon. Millions
    > >> of people and in many parts of town you'll only see one car for every 500
    > >> mopeds. Cars are so slow there that they're only used by people for whom
    > >> the prestige value is worth the wait.
    > >>
    > >> Which points to the eventual reason why many cities will probably have to do
    > >> without cars: In places with truly high population density, the cars just
    > >> won't fit. Saigon's streets are completely saturated already with vehicles
    > >> that are nimbler and 1/8 the size of cars. Replace them and you'll have
    > >> permanent and total gridlock.
    > >
    > > I go to Saigon once or twice a year and each time I can't fail notice
    > > the seemingly huge increase in the number of private four-wheeled
    > > vehicles in the city.
    > >
    > > Cars will come to Saigon just as they did everywhere else --
    > > eventually. The only limiting factor is cost.
    >
    > I disagree. The density on the streets is just too high. Cars won't fit. Now
    > you see 200 a day instead of 10 a few years ago, but that rate of growth
    > can't go on indefinitely.

I'm sure that was said about Bangkok, Jakarta and Hong Kong. It's
remarkable how places adapt to vast numbers of traffic. If Vietnam
continues on its present rate of growth and increasing urban affluence
the number of cars will grow. And they will fit ... somehow, same as
they did elsewhere.

What you will see over time is less street life as roads are widened
and heavily used roads such as Nguyen Hue become more car-oriented.
Neither Ho Chi Minh City nor Hanoi have any multistorey or large
street-level car parks, though several are planned over the next few
months. (Hey, another blight!).

This year, Hanoi tried to restrict the number of motorcycles on the
road by refusing to register them. All that did was increase the
number of unregistered vehicles. Crackdowns are patchy because
authorities fear alientating too much of the population, sparking
social unrest.

Both cities have tentative plans for light rail systems, but at cost
estimates of US$2 billion for HCMC and $1 billion for Hanoi, don't
hold your breath.

Sorry, this is geographically off topic for r.t.e. and r.t.u-c

Regards,
George W. Russell
Hanoi

Olivers <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
    > George W. Russell extrapolated from data available...

    > >
    > > Cars will come to Saigon just as they did everywhere else --
    > > eventually. The only limiting factor is cost. After all, Vietnamese
    > > are only in their first generation of mass motorcycle ownership.
    >
    > "Return", not "come". There were a number of them around for a decade or
    > so....(especially the black Cadillacs of Cholon).

You are of course correct. And indeed probably before that, when
Renaults, Darracqs and Clermont-Ferrands cruised Rue Catinat and
surrounding byways. But I was thinking more of the kind of 5pm
crowdstopping scenes that plague Sukhumvit/Queen's Road/Jl. Jend.
Sudirman/take your pick of any major metropolitan throughway. They
will most assuredly come to Vietnam's cities ... I just can't predict
when.

[ ...] like planners everywhere, they'll spend gadzillions building a
    > freeway/grand boulevard to the airport.
    >

Alas, I suspect so, too.

George W. Russell
Hanoi