mikelincs

This might help, or further inflame the discussions.

Ingles

Why should this inflame the discussion ?
You have only posted the true outcome that will take place if Cummings get's his own way sadly .

Jake.White

I just found this article on Sky. With the assumption that everything in the above post will happen only in the case of the most extreme no deal Brexit maybe it'll set some minds at rest....... or maybe it wont...

Another pointer that all is not quite as bad as some would have it is the exchange rate. The pound is currently sitting at 1.1767 Euros which is considerably higher than it was for many months before the election (in August 2017 it was at 1.0850 Euros). This shows a certain amount of economic confidence in the eventual outcome.

https://news.sky.com/story/govt-stan...ledge-11902688

toots sweet

Well,we haven't left yet and especially since the election the tories seem to have been very quiet on what is happening between the UK and EU, once we leave. Information re negotiations seems to have disappeared,which I find troubling.
After we leave on the 31st, then we will see just what we can expect. I don't expect the £ to strengthen.
I live in hope ,but don't expect a miracle.
I see Sky now have a Brexit countdown

Jake.White

Yes it's interesting. I make a point of watching the exchange rate on a daily basis as an indicator of how we're getting on (currently 1.1777) and it goes up and down all the time on a minute by minute basis, albeit only by tiny amounts. At least it's slightly up on what it was pre election and there have been some positive rumours floated that it could continue to trend highly if all goes well during transition.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eu...d-intact-jan-2

Personally I hope the pound will strengthen but no one knows what'll happen and it's all such a fickle business dependent on the confidence of market traders as well as the performance of other economies within the EU, and Joe Average like you and I have no influence whatsoever on it which is very frustrating.

Ingles

One can only assume that Boris finally now understands he's between "the rock & the hard place"
And lying & BS are not going to work any more.
So he's stumped

liveaboard

I believe that Brexit is such a disaster that no one would vote for it if they knew what it's going to mean.
The referendum was fueled by massive lies all around, and a lack of any credible information.
After that, an unelected PM was pushing against a parliament that seemed to feel like I did.

But that's all changed now.

The general election was the Brexit election, and the people have spoken this time in a voice that can't be denied.
I still firmly believe it's going to be a disaster; economic ruin. And yes, UK expats are left in the cold, but the electorate care little for that.

It's full steam ahead for the cliff edge folks; hang on tight.

Jake.White

No offence, but I just don't get all the mouthy rhetoric. Opinion, regardless of how many might agree one way or the other remains nothing more than opinion, much of which is based on little more than hearsay, rumour and hysteria. A truer indication of how things look economically is the pound to Euro exchange rate (currently 1.1766) which is considerably healthier than at any time over the past three and a half years apart from the period just before the election when it briefly hit 1.20 or thereabouts. I agree with you regarding the unelected PM you mention who I think all will agree was a useless waste of space, but it might also be a worthy point of note to consider that the most vocal of those in parliament who were fighting against public opinion and a democratically given mandate are now gone, and most who have any sense will say good riddance to them. I'm not a tory myself but the impression I get from all this is that it's sour grapes and tory bashing because Labour got a good kicking in the election - which they soundly deserved IMHO. Is it just the tories you all don't like perhaps..?

Gordon Brown was also unelected and he sold off a large amount of the countrys gold reserve for next to nowt - or does that not count because he's not a nasty tory..? Likewise Blair - although elected - led the country into a war with Iraq based on lies and fabricated information about WMDs, and opened the flood gates to unchecked mass third world immigration giving us the lovely social mess we're in now and culminating with a bunch of kids being blown up at a pop concert, but again not a tory so perhaps that's ok in some peoples books... And Corbyn..? with his terrorist sympathies and aspirations to communism..? D'you seriously think he would be doing a better job of this right now if he had been elected..? Really..? I just don't get it.

How are UK Expats left in the cold..? We are still in the EU with all rights and privileges, and no one has stated categorically that we will lose all of our rights when we leave - that is hearsay and unsubstantiated rumour as is the above idiotic list of points which would only happen in the most extreme case of a no deal Brexit where all ties were cut completely. D'you really think that's going to happen..? Because I don't. Closer to reality is the likelihood that EU citizens will not lose their rights in the UK and from a position of common sense and reciprocation, neither will we will lose ours in the EU.

Ingles

The crux off all the above is up to Cummings & Boris Johnson
As he's now in charge , Cummings that is (god help us)
I have no idea if this is allowed , but the link below is too a long running thread ,aptly named
"Boris Johnson Tell Lies"

https://britishexpats.com/forum/take...l-lies-929486/

Jake.White

All politicians lie. They wouldn't be politicians if they didn't. Cameron told us the bombing of Libya was "Right and proper" I still struggle to understand exactly what he meant by that.

Blair and co told us that diesel vehicles were the "healthy" option compared to petrol...LOL.

And....

Wotsisname who used to run the Liberal Democrats and now works for facebook earning zillions gained a position of deputy PM on the basis of lying to the countrys students that fees would be abolished... That was a really good one wasn't it....

captainflack

To be fair to Blair, the evidence at the time (which is in fact correct) was that diesel engines had lower CO2 emissions, and so should be preferably to petrol ones in terms of the UK meeting its commitments to reduce global CO2 emissions.

What has become clearer since, is that diesel engines have other issues associated with them, in particular combustion products and particulates. Petrol is a cleaner fuel in those terms, but is marginally worse in terms of avoiding climate change.

That said, seemed curious to raise the issue of diesel engines to highlight that Blair was a liar. I would have thought his insistence that there was introvertible evidence that Iraq had WMDs and the 100s of 1000s of deaths that resulted would have been a better place to start.

captainflack

With regard to 'associate EU citizenship', I don't see why this was ever considered. It's a nice idea if you're a Brit whose about to lose your EU citizenship thanks to brexit. But what does the EU get in return? You might as well give Brits free beer. It makes as much sense. What incentive is there for anyone not to leave the EU if theyll give you the benefits anyway?

The UK made its choice, and its population will have to live with the consequences. If the referendum was marginal, the election showed that knuckledraggers have force of numbers. The UK is going to have to work through the process before the results become apparent. And the only outcomes are going to be either humiliating capitulation to the EU in trade talks, or retaining the right to rip up EU rules, which means sucking Trump c0ck for an "America First" trade deal, which forces the UK to drop standards, and strips the morons who voted for it of their labour rights while privatizing the NHS. There are no scenarios in which the UK is better off, and the few economists (regarded as cranks) who insist there is, only come to such a conclusion when they repeal virtually all labour laws, health and safety, abolish the NHS and essentially go the US economic route. I suspect that won't go down well with the core Brexitter (even though it was frequently raised that Farage proposes abolishing the NHS and moving to a US system). I am looking forward to watching this unfold. It will be epic, and hilarious to see reality dawn on those convinced Empire 2.0 is just around the corner (because all those countries who fought colonization are absolutely GAGGING to join a new economic block, with the UK at the top and dictating the rules, natch).

I am a Brit, but I recognize that the biggest problem with the UK is the people there. I am happy in Portugal, and those of us lucky enough not to be in the UK, should remain here and get nationality. The language test is not hard, I passed after a single year of free government funded classes. Then we'll be proper EU citizens. If people in the UK want to be EU citizens, they should move to the EU while they still can. The EU wants them, and will welcome them. But there is no reason why the people who voted out should get those benefits. I feel sorry for the Brits who voted remain and care about those rights, but if they cared enough, they'd leave the miserable little island and get over to the EU while they still can.

Jake.White

That said, seemed curious to raise the issue of diesel engines to highlight that Blair was a liar. I would have thought his insistence that there was introvertible evidence that Iraq had WMDs and the 100s of 1000s of deaths that resulted would have been a better place to start.[/QUOTE]


Yeah you're right it would be..... which is why I mentioned it in the 5th post above this one which you obviously couldn't be bothered to read..

" It's become clearer since that diesel engines have other issues associated with them such as particulates and combustion products"

- or more correctly "incomplete combustion products" as complete combustion of a hydrocarbon would result in only Carbon Dioxide and Water.

Like none of this was blindingly obvious before...? Did diesel engines only start belching thick smoke and stinking fumes years after Tony and his pals told us all to go out and buy them for the sake of our health...? Maybe it wasn't obvious and there right in front of our eyes and noses to see and smell and we're all just as completely thick and gullible as manipulative politicians like Tony and Co think we are.....

On a final note : maybe you should read my original post above - same one you couldn't be bothered to read before - about rhetoric, hearsay, unfounded rumour and hysteria before writing anymore of the classic, predictable and insulting made up rubbish given in the two posts directly above this one...

captainflack

Apologies Tory boy, I've read your nonsense about hearsay and rhetoric, and it just rambled on without a point. Was there a point? I nodded off.

You seem to think the pound-euro exchange rate is a good measure that somehow things are better now. Well, the pound is around 1.17 now, which is marginally above the average of the last three years or so. It's hardly reassuring. And it's considerably below the 1.40ish or so the pound/euro rate was at before the referendum was even a thing. That suggests that the market things thinks might be marginally better than before, but considerably worse than when the UK was safely in the EU and brexit wasn't even a realistic prospect.

There is a bit of an irony in that the Tories' mantra is that the market knows best. Yet the markets appear to be saying that the UK is going to be in much worse shape outside the EU.

As for the original post, which you seem to have diverged from to insist that everything will be ok, my point about Associate Citizenship was that it makes no sense for Europe to offer that. UK citizens (who don't get other EU citizenships) will lose rights such as freedom of movement. Residency in Portugal as a UK citizen won't fix that, even if (as has been confirmed) you can stay resident under basically the same terms as before. If you work, and need to do contracts in other EU countries, for example, you're screwed. If you wish to relocate perhaps to start a business in another member state, you no longer have the right to freedom of movement. These are probably not important rights to those who are retired and have no intention of moving. They are important if you run a business, as I do, and have small children who may relocate later to other EU countries to study, as I also do. In that case, I may wish to follow them, as my own parents have done last year (to beat brexit) and be closer to me and their grandchildren.

liveaboard

Many people will be affected, choices for UK citizens to live and work in other countries will be fewer.
Still, it will be a minority; the vast majority of people stay close to home unless threatened with death [war, famine, that sort of thing].
So these effects will be subtle and hard to quantify.

Economic effects will be a short hard shock, possibly recession in the UK, possibly contagious.
The sudden end of trade agreements will throw a spanner into the works of countless trades; everyone knew this could be coming so much preparations have surely been made by trade and industry, but without any specifics to work with.

All those stories about no food in the shops and no meds in the pharmacies are probably rubbish; those things are fairly easy to work out, and there are high stakes involved. The things stuck at the ports will be things you never heard of and don't care about.
But someone will be losing money.

Longer term, trade will suffer. Prosperity will languish, and each side will blame the other as they do, because economy is far too complex to prove anything.
But every economist will tell you; larger open market = more prosperity, smaller market = less.

The UK was shriveling up before it joined the EEC, it bloomed as part of the block. An important part too.
Europe also becomes smaller, and will suffer as well.
Just not as much.

This is great news for the Chinese though. They can now sell goods to the UK on an equal footing with Europe, and to Europe on an equal footing to the UK.

Please note this is all rumor mongering heresy hearsay, and you should take no heed of it.
Nothing will happen to you.
It will only affect other people, so that's all right.