2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

I thought I’d start this early, as after March 2019 it seems that air-travelling BE’s who need to visit home may well be impacted, and there didn’t seem to be a thread dedicated to it…….
Many of us will already know that the 2007 Agreement between Europe and the USA allows any airline registered in the EU or America to fly to and from any location within the European Union, as well as operate flights to and from America. In the event that the UK discontinues the Agreement there’d be limited flights (if any) from UK registered carriers into Europe and minimal transatlantic flights to or from the UK.
From what I can make out, currently, there appear to be three potential outcomes -
1. The UK negotiates a transitional deal for a fixed period.
2. The UK is granted access like Norway or Sweden to the Single Aviation Market which would mean membership of the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA).
3. “No deal is better than a bad deal” prevails, and we start travelling via NI and Eire (UK Exit Fees in $, € or gold only please) at the frontier, or we just blow-up our rubber dinghy’s & paddle across the Channel to hire a car in Calais. (and we just know who’ll own the car hire businesses don’t we).

IMO, No. 2 is currently the most probable; - after all No.1 relies on any transition have a definite point of final status over travel, which isn’t possible at the moment. No.3… I don’t want to even think or dream about it. Normal people would consider that a Govt. that’s pledged the interests of it’s tax-slaves as its top- priority couldn’t be that stupid (but then I recall the Proportional Voting Referendum and Police & Crime Commissioners, and I feel very queasy & begin to sweat).

Yes, this will be a bit of a ‘slow-burner’ but it would be particularly valuable & interesting to hear from anyone in the airline industry- even on a proxy-by-members basis, The practical impacts could be huge. One thing is certain fellow BEs, whichever way this goes, make sure you’ve got a very, very full wallet OK? Incidentally, a close-reading of the Agreement seems to exclude restrictions on diplomatic, heads of state, and governmental missions…. I wonder if that’s how our Social Superiors & Betters have decided to grant us smelly-working-class-peons (?pee-upons) our futures….
Oh yes, a house-keeping thing… (claps hands) … CHILDREN! …. CHILDREN!!! …Thank you. This is an adults thread - OK? You already have your own big-play-pen under Post EU Referendum where you can throw your toys around & proudly display the varied contents of your nappies. Neither need it become a Free-Movement political knock-about tirade - there’s other places for that. But sticking to the practicalities of end-of-free-skies, and as things develop its impacts, perhaps we’ll learn enough, early enough, to try and mitigate the impact.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

At a cost to Easyjet they have paid a reported 12,000,000 pounds to be registered in Austria as a new company so they can carry on flying in the EU see link below.

Peter

EasyJet picks Austrian base for post-Brexit plan - BBC News

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Interesting but can you expect the southern european nations along with Greece and france accepting it when it means that they will take a big hit with holiday makers.

Also, that great europhile paddy O'leary who supports the eu (yes in small letters) so much he only buys aircraft built in the USA.

I am also sure that the USA would have something to say about it with all the Brits that visit.

Yes, I did vote to leave and even more now want it to happen quickly.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Well, there is a whole big world of tourists outside the EU! Europe will replace British tourists easily with Indian and Chinese. Imagine India with hundreds of millions of people from the middle class with money! What is 60 million British with their declining pound compared to that?

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

I see Air Berlin has filed for insolvency today - though for now flights continue. Looking at their routes, a fair number served the UK.
While their problems seem to be more about financial confidence than our subject, this might be an early straw in the wind.
If corporate investors think there's little prospect of healthy returns in an over-supplied market, come 2019, I wonder who else will be in difficulty?

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Airlines like EJ and Lufthansa are queuing up to cherry pick the assets of Air Beelin.

When EJ and Ryan air can make very healthy profits AIR Berlin made huge losses which points to management issues rather than market conditions..

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

watched a programme last night on Heathrow. OHMYGOD.. Do we HAVE to travel this way? Bring back the ocean going liners..So it takes a week to get to Portugal I'M GAME...

Once you have seen an air india ground stewardess struggle with EIGHTEEN overstuffed suitcases from one family (cos they don't like to wash their clothes in the water over there.it turns then funny) Or watched a poor Sikh man struggle to assemble his 12 family members through customs ,and find the official to claim his 500 pounds of VAT back,only to be hauled back himself because he had a 'strange bulge' in his body. Nothing there but fat. He crying his eyes out,MIL in wheelchair.He doesn't get VAT and they catch plane as the doors close. He had queued for 4 hrs through customs .
I frankly don't care if we can't fly back to the UK..If this is the future its hell.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

WOW.... this is going to hit some air lines hard BUT then the other smarter ones will be miles ahead of the game and no alot more than what we see...

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Trouble is, GeniB, the UK authorities will just turn the liner terminals into hell, just like the airports!

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I know ,I'm just panickjing.My ED is coming through Heathrow at the end of the month . I am visualising her being processed like a sardine.:eek:

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Very funny, the indians have huge expat numbers in the uk, family visits are a big industry, its only recently that they were allowed to not fly air india, and the chinese dont do european beach holidays, they build their own resorts for that, very much into keeping it in the family, here in the caribbean they biuld entire resorts for chinese use, never advertised outside their own countries. Im sure youll still see busses of them visiting the cultural cities as now, but dont rely on that, you know they built their own disneyland version of europe, hilarious, theres a british pub that sells bottled tsing tao and cocktails.

Im guessing there may be more antipodean accents in our pubs and restaurants, less eastern europe.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Regarding the Chinese and Europe the word to use is " yet "..
Indians have flown on other airlines for decades..

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

I guess you see that as a benefit.

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Not really, possibly easier to understand sometimes, more fern patterns in starbucks lattes? just a prediction.

There was a NZ restaurant in ealing in london, closed a few years back, would love to have another, some of their stuff was good.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Thats interesting, around 2014 i had an employee whose mother wasnt allowed to take a flight from hyderabad to london via dubai with emirates, [how i usually did it] had to leave india via delhi, i knew the old restriction which people were always complaining about [the price i think mainly] and assumed it still applied.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

... ah yes, GeniB,..... but, what about your carbon footprint, your ecological contamination trail, your upper atmosphere steam-smoke pollution not to mention the... Waste effluent slick
.... sigh... gone are the days of innocence

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Well, well…… it seems that Gloom & Doom Nutty-Steve isn’t so far off. :nod: :nod: :nod:

Brace for Brexit: UK air traffic faces slump without deal, airports warn

But at least there’s One Bright Spot!
Terminal 5 @ Heathrow, & parts of Gatwick, Stansted, & the all the other UK airports can be turned into temporary A&E’ units; - with beds on the baggage carousels and those large luggage trolleys….. See? A solution to the (invented by malcontents) NHS crisis
[I]‘Crisis - what crisis?- Pah ’!![/I] :eek:

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Parallel to topic, but the news of the demise of Monarch, makes the oncoming Brexit from the Open Skies Agreement a little more concerning to Brit ex-pats this morning.
Monarch was the last from an era of UK carriers who chartered and badged their own aircraft to support high-volume package holidays businesses. That model, like every other that fails to adapt, has now died. Monarch joins, Cosmos, Dan-Air and Laker as a fond, but redundant concept. A sad day.
So, where does this leave things? The remaining low-cost carriers are having tough times; - we can all read headlines so there’s no need to repeat them.
If you’re one of these carriers, it seems to me that a strategic long term decision is now not far off.
Essentially, imo, it’s this;-
Do you either continue to service a future opted-out location, in the hopes that the sales volumes generated may continue to help carry your operations through, or do you sell your UK landing-slots and use the capital to relocate in either a reduced capacity, or growth cycle, inside a more placid common area where standards are known and where costs, especially for fuel, are in a single currency?
I sometimes think the whole high-risk airline industry is a game of last-man-standing!
From a UK viewpoint, depending on what may or may not happen, a discernible outline now seems to be emerging.
- There will probably be far fewer UK domestically based carriers post Brexit
- Carriers will be more risk-averse, especially to airport landing charge increases;- the risible basis of the UK Govt.’s funding for future airport capacity development.
- Carriers will probably be more focussed with long-haul operations than short, where costs can be equalised over other competition.
- Customers will face higher charges as divergences between EU and UK regulations and practices harden over the decade.
- With changed border controls, costs of delays for ex-pats and more importantly those costs in their implementation, will be passed through to passengers in the form of local airport taxes.
Finally, any assumption that Easyjet, Ryanair, etc. will now automatically scoop up all of Monarch’s assets, especially their pilots, routes & landing slots, is, imo, an overhasty one. It may well be that given the decision above, Ryanair especially, will use current under-capacity to allow their remaining competitors to commit their precious resources to a static, if not cul-de-sac market, leaving them with the flexibility to adapt and see out the current tough times.
For expats, Monarch’s demise may become a notable event.
It would be interesting to have the views of anyone connected with the airline industry.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

01.12.2017
Breaking (slip-it-out-on-a-quiet-Friday) update
https://news.sky.com/story/govt-to-stay-in-eu-air-safety-body-in-blurring-of-brexit-red-line-11151049
At which point “The enemy” WILL now unconditionally nod & roll over without bargaining or argument, because we say so……. just like that...:p
Absolutely no red-line-blurring or panic-stations going on here then…

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Then where are those "middle class" Indian or Chinese tourists ? Are you suggesting some change EU needs to do for those tourists to visit ?

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Relax, the UK may exit the open skies agreement, but I am sure the main man David Davis has covered the impact on the aviation sector in one of the 57 or 58 sectoral analyses which he famously claimed were 'excruciating' in their detail.

He's been on the case for the last 15 months, people say he spends a lot of time at his desk on his own, even late into the night (I heard almost as much time as Damian Green!) so he must have been doing something, surely.

Hang on, what's this?

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-im...dmits-11158899

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... AND he'll just walk away from it, captainflack.
You know that if any business or individual with a responsibility to produce an assessment didn't, saying they couldn't see the point, their heels wouldn't touch on the way inside, or to a civil court. THIS IS A PRIME EXAMPLE OF THE CORRUPT UK GOVT.

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For those who haven’t figured it out yet this is what is actually happening. It was all discussed on bbc last night.

The bremoaners want to scupper the deal, any ammunition they can give junkers etc is very helpful, but think about it, there are british mp’s seeking to thwart the will of the people and incur extra cost for them - is this democratic?.

Any analyses carried out with conclusions informs the uk negotating position, so whatever exists should be kept out of the public domain [ie the mp’s] for now.

Is davis therefore lying to parliament and the analysis exists - yes probably - is this a good thing - yes - is he therefore in contempt of parliament - doubtful as the analysis will be fudged to be named as a specific piece of work for the negotiation, at the behest of the pm / cabinet office, and the mp’s have no right to see it.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

So lying to parliament is ok now? So much for brexitter's precious 'sovereignty' argument. No respect for democratic underpinnings of our entire democracy.

So it's apparently now perfectly ok for a minister to repeatedly claim over the period of 15 months or so that his department is producing excruciatingly detailed analyses of 58 sectors of the economy to reassure the public and business that this is not a blind leap of faith... and then when pushed, by binding vote in the house, to publish those detailed analyses, to admit that he was lying and that they've done absolutely no such analyses at all, and therefore have no idea whatsoever of the impact that different brexit scenarios will have on the economy!?!? That is astonishing.

If any business approached a huge restructuring in such a way, it would be inconceivable that they'd make such drastic changes without having a clear understanding of the impact on their business. It's even more inconceivable that the management could avoid jail time if they'd repeatedly lied to shareholders that they'd done extensive analyses, only to reveal when pushed by legal action later, that they'd been deliberately lying and had actually done nothing.

I am still amazed by the 'faith' aspect of brexit. The religious belief that all the economic modelling and reason-based calculations are wrong. That the goal is so virtuous and lofty, that it's acceptable to lie to parliament, and that the narrow 52/48 referendum result was not just a mandate to leave the EU, but to do so utterly and absolutely in the hardest brexit possible, and that anyone who opposes this in parliament or elsewhere, is a traitor and a fifth columnist, and that therefore it is legitimate and indeed acceptable to circumvent 1000 years of democratic procedure, because these democratic institutions are tools of foreign powers or treachery. It's actually rather scary. At what point after brexit do they try to pop the cork back in the bottle, and decide that now parliament can have its power back again, and the temporary free pass to lie to it can be revoked? Because I suspect as with the Chinese revolution, and most other such acts where the ends justified the means, the cork will never go back in, and anyone who wants it to will be denounced (as you denounce democratically elected MPs) as counter revolutionaries and traitors.

Anyone rational should just think about this. The government lied to the public and to business for 15 months. Why? Why not just be open, and say, "we don't have any analyses, and we're not going to do any, because it won't change our minds anyway"? The reason is because business would be appalled, and would start packing up en masse to leave. Which now the cat is out of the bag, is exactly what they'll be doing now.

Your argument that publishing such information will give the EU ammunition is a pretty clear admission that such analyses would almost certainly be rather negative on the UK's economic prospects.

But do you really think it'd be news to the EU? Would they really need British MPs to leak UK government reports, to know that the UK would be much worse off?

In any negotiation, you normally try to convince the other side that you believe your position is strong. I think the UK knows it's position is so weak, that it cannot possibly try to do that, so it's essentially gone for the desperate angle of trying to convince the other side that it's so mad and bent on doing this that it really doesn't care about the economic consequences. And with people like Davis and Gove up there at the front, this depiction of madness is worryingly convincing.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

You're asking whether democratically elected opposition MPs in the British parliament opposing government policy is democratic?

Are you serious?

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No, read it again, i’m asking whether its democratic for MP’s to attempt to overthrow the will of the electorate expressed in a vote.

A bit like corbyn after the last election - we lost - but only just - come on guv let us run the place for a bit...

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Certainly any business would not want to release information that would be detrimental to its competitors, and certainly in this instance in negotiations there are aspects that should be kept private- but outright lying by the government to the representatives of the people is wrong. Why ot have the courage to simply state the obvious- Brexit will not achieve most if not all the objectives of those who voted for it, and secondly will not have an overall positive effect on the British economy, hence the people. Arguments how bad the effect will be are largely speculation at this point.

The obvious responsible and politically courageous thing to do would be to call a second referendum with a more precisely worded choice for the voters, and then decide whether to proceed with Brexit- it is obvious to anyone that Brexit voters expected much more than what Brexit will in the end mean.

Perhaps the madness you describe is simply a negotiating strategy.

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...:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: a 'negotiating strategy ????

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Well I have been in business situations where the other side acted crazy or so unreasonable to try to were one down to finally agree to something just to move on. I doubt this is the case, but trying to find a logical reason for the inane process that is happening is not easy.

Still waiting to hear any rational reason Brexit will result in better economic growth for Britain, or more opportunities for young people, or the NHS. There may be one but after a few months trying to learn from discussions on Brexit, haven't heard one yet.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Firstly, you need to re-read the referendum question. It was simply about leaving the EU. It made no mention of what new arrangement Britain should seek. Brexitters are now twisting it, and using it to justify things that are simply not there and never were. Read it again. Carefully.

Johnson, Gove, Farage - they all frequently cited Switzerland and Norway during the campaign as successful countries outside the EU. Countries that are of course inside the single market and customs union. So it seems entirely reasonable to assume that at least some of those voting brexit wanted a soft-brexit. And yet now, the headbangers are twisting it, and arguing that everyone who voted brexit did so with the desire to go full tilt hard brexit with WTO rules. Sorry, but that is simply not the case.

And so, what kind of brexit should it be, and who gets to decide that? A small group of ministers hand picked by a PM who (in case you forget) went to the polls for a mandate to negotiate the deal she wanted, and was humiliated, losing her majority and having to do a seedy deal with bowler-hatted racists and terrorist sympathizers from Northern Ireland to stay in power? Or the full British parliament, sovereign, and holding a new mandate since the brexit vote to formulate what kind of deal should be instituted?

These MPs you suggest are 'thwarting the will of the electorate expressed in a vote'... are doing no such thing. They're not voting to cancel brexit, and you know it. You're simply using a referendum result to demand they act as a rubber stamp for a government teetering on collapse because the public in a general election stripped it of its majority over it's brexit direction, which it seems bent on pursuing regardless.

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Good point that there were a variety of reasons people voted for the simply- worded referendum. If one discounts those who wanted to remain and the variety of viewpoints between those who voted for Brexit, whether soft or hard Brexit, in the end no majority for one clear path.

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Yes, morpeth... I've come across the 'crazy ivan' stratagem too, the only trouble with it as you know, is that you can only use it once. To carry on with this on an irrationality basis will fail, as the other side (that's 27 of them) will simply treat it with (more?) derision.
IMO, The only opportunity here is for Trump, when he's an ex-pres. & his mates in the US health corporations.... :nod: :nod: :nod:
HAD the UK voted to remain any privatisation of a member's state's public services would have been subject to challenge both domestically AND by the EU; - especially when the end purchasers could be a non-EU state. But post 2019, that major hurdle disappears leaving only the UK parliament to rubber-stamp the deal and that extra £350 million a week to start going to the likes of US Health Corp.....
Creatures like Trump & his ilk only come out when they smell a profit, and here's a giant one. the NHS is still Europe's largest employer, with a drugs bill the size of many smaller nations' GDP.
See behind the 'crazy strategy'???

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

I dont know if the craziness is a strategy or not though it could be.

US spends 16% or so of GDP on health care, Britain 10%. I think instead of farming out NHS services to US companies to try to lower costs, the answer is the reverse : for US to authorize Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement to treatment at NHS facilities as long as costs 15% below USA, and for NHS to deliver as long as revenue produced 20% more than costing currently. NHS gets more funding US lowers costs.

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Breaking news re Ryanair - :ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42364502

So, no strikes from 20/12 and union recognition at Ryanair.... despite the hot air from their Chief earlier this month.

Any bets on Michael O'leary still being in control in 6 months...?

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Yes, could work it that way... :nod:
Another great trade deal.

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Well, Brexit meant to generate wonderful new trade deals after all.

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BA bites again....
BA Business Class passenger left covered in bed bug bites | Daily Mail Online
Usual caveats -
This is the DM so treat it as you will, (At least Vigin passengers won't have to read the story)
Maybe the guy didn't select the no-bugs option when booking....:(

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

UPDATE
Slowly our potential future's outline appears; -
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...netherlands-uk

The relevant extract reads
When the country leaves without a deal it must “fall back” on the minimal World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules for trade. But financial services and aviation fall outside the WTO regime, meaning that after a British no-deal departure both sectors must stop trading with the EU overnight. Between Amsterdam Schiphol airport and London alone there are currently 60 flights a day – one every 15 minutes.

A quick no-prize competition, fellow serfs
Of the two areas, which will the UK concentrate on; -
1. The City of London
2. Aviation

............ :nod:

Re: 2019 - UK EXITS OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT
 

The Ukrainian Government hopes that the signing of the Common Aviation Area Agreements (CAA) (so-called "open skies") will be unblocked in the near future.

As we know, the signing of the Common Aviation Area Agreements has been blocked since the end of 2013 because of a dispute between Britain and Spain regarding Gibraltar airport status.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-pol...-ministry.html