The Rise and Fall of GBP

Old Jul 2nd 2019, 7:13 am
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Default The Rise and Fall of GBP

Greetings!

Thought I would throw this out for discussion if anyone is interested.

As a pensioner, I keep a close eye on the exchange rate as any fluctuation can have a profound effect on my pittance of a pension. No doubt most of you would have seen the fall of the GBP in recent weeks/months from about 73 to 65 today. This prompted me to have a look also at the USD and AusD and the results are the same. So, I ask myself why? Could it be that PHP is strengthening with the Philippine economy or due to other factors. I can see why the GBP is falling with the uncertainty of Brexit and the new PM..... money markets hate uncertainty. But that is not the case in the US or Aussieland. So what could it be? Maybe the world trade war between the major economies are having an effect? But then I look at gold prices and they have jumped in the past few weeks. I have learnt some time ago that the prospect of a major war will cause currencies to lose value and conversely....gold to increase in value. Could it be that? Or a combination of the set of events I have outlined?

A few days ago whilst musing this subject, and looking at my dwindling bank balance, I looked at the GBP forecast. From memory, we can expect a further fall in the next few months to about 61. But good news is ahead.....the exchange rate is forecast to be 83 ....in 5 yrs time.

Oh well.....looks like a diet of fish heads and a bucketful of rice for me for a while.....

Enjoy!
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Old Jul 2nd 2019, 8:23 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

Originally Posted by Philosophical 11 View Post
Greetings!

Thought I would throw this out for discussion if anyone is interested.

As a pensioner, I keep a close eye on the exchange rate as any fluctuation can have a profound effect on my pittance of a pension. No doubt most of you would have seen the fall of the GBP in recent weeks/months from about 73 to 65 today. This prompted me to have a look also at the USD and AusD and the results are the same. So, I ask myself why? Could it be that PHP is strengthening with the Philippine economy or due to other factors. I can see why the GBP is falling with the uncertainty of Brexit and the new PM..... money markets hate uncertainty. But that is not the case in the US or Aussieland. So what could it be? Maybe the world trade war between the major economies are having an effect? But then I look at gold prices and they have jumped in the past few weeks. I have learnt some time ago that the prospect of a major war will cause currencies to lose value and conversely....gold to increase in value. Could it be that? Or a combination of the set of events I have outlined?

A few days ago whilst musing this subject, and looking at my dwindling bank balance, I looked at the GBP forecast. From memory, we can expect a further fall in the next few months to about 61. But good news is ahead.....the exchange rate is forecast to be 83 ....in 5 yrs time.

Oh well.....looks like a diet of fish heads and a bucketful of rice for me for a while.....

Enjoy!
Last October I was lucky, or smart still working that one out, and transferred a years worth of money at just about 72 mainly to cover for the inevitable FU with the Brexit deal, not disappointed there. Most of the local currencies have done well over the last year Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia etc as they have managed to catch a bit of work from China so as to avoid the "Made in China" label tariffs.

Best exchange rate I have had was 106 back in the early 2000s and when I had to pay the bulk of the house in 2008/9 it was at 91.
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Old Jul 4th 2019, 12:22 pm
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

It's all about relative security in a currency down the road. Yes Australia and the US have economic issues. But people would rather have dollars at the moment than GBP. Another issue is Brexit which explodes innumerable trade deals, not only with the Continent, but internationally. Can the UK renegotiate those to the advantage of Britain vs. the one that they previously had within the EU? The EU just negotiated a deal with Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). In some cases, these deals are hard for outsiders to mirror since they assure "preference" is given to partners and not outsiders. And given how Trump - who cheerled Brexit...not many other nations have come out to offer even potential deals. If they have exclusivity with the EU they may not even be capable of making one. And of course Trump is "America First" - one could expect a negotiating process that is far from equitable. Look at how reliable a partner he is...he threatened to blow up the NAFTA II with Mexico and Canada...after (falsely) claiming it was vastly better than NAFTA I.
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Old Jul 30th 2019, 1:53 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

Originally Posted by Philosophical 11 View Post
A few days ago whilst musing this subject, and looking at my dwindling bank balance, I looked at the GBP forecast. From memory, we can expect a further fall in the next few months to about 61. But good news is ahead.....the exchange rate is forecast to be 83 ....in 5 yrs time.

Oh well.....looks like a diet of fish heads and a bucketful of rice for me for a while.....

Enjoy!
Looks like the 61GBP/peso rate may be a bit optimistic, yesterday it dropped by one peso to just one point from being in the 61 range. I think fish heads may become a Sunday lunch luxury.
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Old Jul 30th 2019, 3:39 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

Originally Posted by Stokkevn View Post
Looks like the 61GBP/peso rate may be a bit optimistic, yesterday it dropped by one peso to just one point from being in the 61 range. I think fish heads may become a Sunday lunch luxury.
The way things are going it will be 50 by the time Boris and his motley crew have stuffed it up for all except for their mates shorting sterling and on the fringes of getting amazing new contracts to meet government requirements. Should Scotland pull out of the UK , I will not blame them them if they do, then I will be first in queue for a lion rampant passport
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Old Jul 31st 2019, 11:12 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

Originally Posted by mikemike View Post
The way things are going it will be 50 by the time Boris and his motley crew have stuffed it up for all except for their mates shorting sterling and on the fringes of getting amazing new contracts to meet government requirements. Should Scotland pull out of the UK , I will not blame them them if they do, then I will be first in queue for a lion rampant passport
Believe me I'm looking for my maternal grandfather s birth certificate as we speak
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Old Oct 16th 2019, 2:31 pm
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

Originally Posted by mikemike View Post
The way things are going it will be 50 by the time Boris and his motley crew have stuffed it up for all except for their mates shorting sterling and on the fringes of getting amazing new contracts to meet government requirements. Should Scotland pull out of the UK , I will not blame them them if they do, then I will be first in queue for a lion rampant passport
It's at Ph66 to GBP and heading North. So looks like the kids will have supper this week.
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Old Oct 16th 2019, 9:45 pm
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

Originally Posted by Andrew_AJP View Post
Believe me I'm looking for my maternal grandfather s birth certificate as we speak
If this is a british one , then I can maybe help.
PM me.

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Old Oct 17th 2019, 7:34 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

Originally Posted by Stokkevn View Post
It's at Ph66 to GBP and heading North. So looks like the kids will have supper this week.
Slight drop back as I type which could be due to the usual cashing in on profits and the DUP has just rejected the PM's latest Brexit deal which could mean a further fall. Think it will be a roller coaster ride until 30 Oct then things will become more clear.

Regards
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Old Oct 17th 2019, 8:11 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

I expect the £ to hit 70/php if an agreement on brexit is reached. There after I expect the £ to drop slightly, then accelerate when the economy has settled and the UK out performs countries in the Euro.
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Old Oct 17th 2019, 10:37 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

A 4% rise in pension April 2020.
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Old Oct 17th 2019, 10:53 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

According to the Telegraph newspaper today, £ likely to hit 1.41 to US$ by 2021. The £/php should follow a similar pattern, so things are going to get a lot cheaper in the Philippines, especialy when your pension is paid in pounds. Cant wait till I get my pension next October.
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Old Oct 17th 2019, 11:18 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

I got 65.46599 today at HSBC Makati so I guess it had dropped back a bit.
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Old Oct 17th 2019, 11:54 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

Well when the so called 'Honourable' Members of Parliament reject Boris's Brexit deal on Saturday watch the Pound plummet. Brace yourselves, its going to be a bumpy ride until after the next General Election and possibly a second Brexit referendum.
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Old Nov 26th 2020, 8:44 am
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Default Re: The Rise and Fall of GBP

Genius needed.

What to do with my GBP that are languishing in my UK bank account. At the end of the year Brexit is going to happen ( well that is the plan at the moment ). What is the GBP going to do, rise like a phoenix out of the flames of disaster or sink like a stone?
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