Canadian Dollar Update
Apr 17th 2012, 1:22 pm
#1
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Canadian Dollar Update
To all intents and purposes the Canadian dollar and the pound are unchanged against one another from a week ago. Neither of them was at the front of investors' minds; they were preoccupied by the resurfacing nervousness about Euroland sovereign debt.
Unlike the previous week's punchy employment numbers, the Canadian economic statistics had nothing particular to say. Housing starts were fractionally ahead of forecast and the new housing price index rose by a monthly 0.3%. February's trade surplus was a disappointment at $290 million; the market had been looking for something closer to the previous month's $1.95 billion.
This week the Bank of Canada will reveal its latest monetary policy decision. It is likely the benchmark interest rate will remain at 1% for a 20th consecutive month. More important to the Loonie will be Governor Carney's hints about where rates might go next, and when.
If you would like more information please contact me directly or check out our BE currency page
Unlike the previous week's punchy employment numbers, the Canadian economic statistics had nothing particular to say. Housing starts were fractionally ahead of forecast and the new housing price index rose by a monthly 0.3%. February's trade surplus was a disappointment at $290 million; the market had been looking for something closer to the previous month's $1.95 billion.
This week the Bank of Canada will reveal its latest monetary policy decision. It is likely the benchmark interest rate will remain at 1% for a 20th consecutive month. More important to the Loonie will be Governor Carney's hints about where rates might go next, and when.
If you would like more information please contact me directly or check out our BE currency page
Apr 24th 2012, 8:43 am
#2
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Re: Canadian Dollar Update
On Monday and early Tuesday the Canadian dollar was struggling to keep pace with a buoyant British pound. It suddenly jumped nearly two cents higher, following a Bank of Canada policy announcement, but by the following morning it was heading down again on its way to a net loss of two cents on the week.
The Loonie's upward spike came after the BoC announced it was keeping its benchmark interest rate steady at 1% for a 20th month. In its statement the Bank said, in a roundabout way, that the next interest rate move was likely to be upward. Investors approved.
There was little else for the Loonie to write home about. Manufacturing shipments and motor vehicle sales both fell in February. Figures that showed core inflation falling from 2.3% to 1.9% undid most of the positive sentiment that the BoC statement had created.
If you would like more information please contact me directly or check out our BE currency page
The Loonie's upward spike came after the BoC announced it was keeping its benchmark interest rate steady at 1% for a 20th month. In its statement the Bank said, in a roundabout way, that the next interest rate move was likely to be upward. Investors approved.
There was little else for the Loonie to write home about. Manufacturing shipments and motor vehicle sales both fell in February. Figures that showed core inflation falling from 2.3% to 1.9% undid most of the positive sentiment that the BoC statement had created.
If you would like more information please contact me directly or check out our BE currency page
Apr 30th 2012, 12:47 pm
#3
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Re: Canadian Dollar Update
The Canadian dollar won on points in a week that saw the top half dozen currencies move by less than a cent against each other. There was a general tilt among investors towards the commodity dollars.
With few economic indicators to encourage them, investors felt no compulsion to take the Canadian dollar any further ahead. They were satisfied to see it holding its position slightly above the US dollar and close to its one- and two-year weekly average against the pound.
There were two sets of Canadian economic data. Wholesale sales for February rose by a monthly 1.6%, more than compensating for the previous month's -1.1% decline. February's retail sales clocked a -0.2% decline, negating an identically-sized increase in January which was entirely the result of a spike in motor vehicle sales.
If you would like more information please contact me directly or check out our BE currency page
With few economic indicators to encourage them, investors felt no compulsion to take the Canadian dollar any further ahead. They were satisfied to see it holding its position slightly above the US dollar and close to its one- and two-year weekly average against the pound.
There were two sets of Canadian economic data. Wholesale sales for February rose by a monthly 1.6%, more than compensating for the previous month's -1.1% decline. February's retail sales clocked a -0.2% decline, negating an identically-sized increase in January which was entirely the result of a spike in motor vehicle sales.
If you would like more information please contact me directly or check out our BE currency page
May 9th 2012, 9:42 am
#4
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Re: Canadian Dollar Update
The Canadian dollar displayed more vulnerability last week, moving a cent lower against the pound as the US dollar headed higher. A significant factor was anxiety about elections in Greece and France and their implications for global growth, which dampened demand for commodities and commodity-related currencies.
A more important factor was the weak Canadian economic data. Paradoxically, the ecostat most helpful to the Loonie was an American one; a point-and-a-half improvement in the US manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index helped the Canadian dollar more than the Greenback.
Two which didn't help it at all were February's gross domestic product and the Ivey purchasing managers' index. The first showed a -0.2% monthly fall in output; the second fell by 13 points -20% - to 52.2. Both were an unwelcome surprise and both sent the Canadian dollar lower. Forewarned, investors will be looking closely at Friday's employment numbers. Weak figures could be responsible for more damage.
If you would like more information please contact me directly or check out our BE currency page
A more important factor was the weak Canadian economic data. Paradoxically, the ecostat most helpful to the Loonie was an American one; a point-and-a-half improvement in the US manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index helped the Canadian dollar more than the Greenback.
Two which didn't help it at all were February's gross domestic product and the Ivey purchasing managers' index. The first showed a -0.2% monthly fall in output; the second fell by 13 points -20% - to 52.2. Both were an unwelcome surprise and both sent the Canadian dollar lower. Forewarned, investors will be looking closely at Friday's employment numbers. Weak figures could be responsible for more damage.
If you would like more information please contact me directly or check out our BE currency page
May 22nd 2012, 1:50 pm
#5
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Re: Canadian Dollar Update
For a second week the Canadian dollar and the pound had no argument with one another. GBP/CAD is within a quarter of a cent of its position a fortnight ago. Whilst it is hard to explain away this stability as any more than coincidence, during most of the last two years the exchange rate has varied by no more than ±3%, a little over ten cents and about a third of the range of sterling against the Australian and New Zealand dollars over the same period.
Ongoing anxiety about the euro and global growth means there is still a tendency for investors to lean towards the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen and away from the commodity- and energy-related currencies. That drift has rather lost its momentum following the G8 summit of world leaders but the underlying nervousness remains and the Loonie could feel the pinch again if new bad news were to emerge from Euroland.
Ongoing anxiety about the euro and global growth means there is still a tendency for investors to lean towards the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen and away from the commodity- and energy-related currencies. That drift has rather lost its momentum following the G8 summit of world leaders but the underlying nervousness remains and the Loonie could feel the pinch again if new bad news were to emerge from Euroland.
