Paladin

AND ...... you forgot to say that while the RBNZ keeps inflating the darn money supply at 15% pa there's no end in sight for NZ inflation and thus no chance of substantially lower interest rates, all equalling a strong currency for the time being!!!

Dave

Kippers

15%. Where did you find that Dave?

Dominion Post reports this morning that one exporter is:
"switching many of its European sales contracts from US dollars to Euros".
An obvious and long expected reaction to the failing US economy.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4030801a13.html

The US dollar will soon cease to be the worlds reserve currency.


Back to gold then Dave


Kip

minky

It did go as low as 2.41 in Nov 05

Paladin

Hi Kip,

Here ya go! The link to the table of truth!

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/c1/data.html

M2 is the darstedly figure they just can't hide from!!!!

and here's the UK's:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/stati...rent/index.htm

M4(excl. securitizations) is the nasty little number here.

As I'm sure you know the Fed in the US has stopped publishing M3 as its so high they don't want people to know what it is but they are still publishing M2 which is currently growing at about 8/9% and M3 is ALWAYS higher - my contacts who are manually calculating M3 say its ~ 11%+.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/

Of course the Fed have now opened the money supply spigots way open again to try a last ditch atempt to save the housing industry so expect it to get worse!

One thing people have to remember is that "Money Supply" is not just notes & coins but includes all money "created" out of thin air by new credit by the banks!!!

And YES gold will shine(excuse the pun!)!!! Actually from a charting standpoint I am expecting gold to meet heavy resistance in the $695-715 range and probably be some profit taking, maybe even down to the $650 level(see attached chart!!!), plus witht he USD Index reaching the critical 80 support level I expect the BoJ and other "friends" of the Fed to step in and support the dollar into a dollar rally which will bring gold down a tad for a short while. But at the end of the day they can't run from the inflation created by them inflating the money supply so ultimately Gold is gonna sky rocket at some point - its just a matter of time!!! It should currently be ~$2400/oz if the Fed, BoE, BoJ and the illuminati elitists major Bullion Banks(Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan etc) hadn't been running a gold cartel to manipulate the price down by selling gold leased from the aforementioned central banks AND shorting the hell out of gold derivative contracts to supppress the price!!! The recent Telegraph article about concerns the BoE doesn't have the half gold reserves (that that idiot Gordon Brown didn't flog off in that stupid fire sale auction fiasco in 1999-2000) due to gold leasing was very telling! Were the BoE's gold leasing operations on a secured basis or not - they're not telling!!!!! And the Fed has been playing the same game!!!

All will be revealed eventually!!! Personally I think within 5 years at most gold will be a five figure amount per ounce!!!! But more importantly, the dollar and several other fiat paper currencies will be nothing more than toilet paper!

Dave

Paladin

Sorry for OT but on the topic of long term gold market, there's a nice long term gold price chart in this Aden Sisters article:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/aden041707.html

OK back on topic - for those of you following the gyrations of the £ vz NZ$, the recent high inflation data in the UK has yileded a £ rally, but I caution you to watch $2.7250 and $2.7550 as these will be major resistance areas to further rises!

Dave

hazeandsteve

So the dollar, if it creeps over 2.725, would be unlikely to get any further than 2.755?
So, as I'm not a multi millionaire investor, anywhere in that gap would be a reasonably prudent time to exchange?
It's house buying money, so losing 3k on exchange is liveable, just not really desirable.
Would it be a better plan to shift £100k now and accrue unterest in an NZ savings account, seeing as rates are higher in NZ than here, and we leave UK next week.

Kippers

Is the RBNZ actually doing the deed or is it the trading banks pushing credit.
As far as I can see the RBNZ has little direct control over money supply, but just keeps a watching brief that banks act prudently.
Not so?

Read the speculation about the March 06 suspension of US M3 figures.
Run the dollar into the ground, swiftly replacing it with the 'Amero', leaving creditors holding worthless paper.

Foreign debt problem solved!


Kip

Paladin

Well the max upside at the moment has to be considered the down trend line on the daily chart coming down from $3.06. That is currently at $2.84. Below that we have the 79% retracement line of the current run down at $2.82, then the 10day moving average and 62% retracement line both at ~ $2.7850.
There was also ALOT of support AND resistance in the $2.76 area.

So thats your "lines in the sand" - take ya pick!!!!

My gut feeling is the $2.7550/2.7650 area will be the tops for a while as the 50% retracement is also near there where those major daily lows are. I'll certainly be happy Shorting it at that level!!!

Dave

sirplug

You state that, that's it for a while, for some of us at the start of the process, a move and exchange of cash will be 6 months or so, off. Can you guess an outcome in 6 months, considering the high we are now showing against the US$. Has the fluctuation between £ and NZ$ followed any pattern with the US economy or does it follow more tightly with the AUS$?
Is the UK£ at a high for now due to the forthcoming elections?

Paladin

Its a bit of both mate!

The RBNZ controls the fractional reserve requirements which facilitate the banks unsavoury lending practices, ie credit issuance, therefore facilitating creating money out of thin air!! The RBNZ also monetizes government debt, as the Fed and BoE do, hence inflating the money supply that route too, ie yet more creation of money out of thin air!!!

For those out there that do not understand this; this is what is the root cause of inflation: inflating the money supply! The more money & creidt they "create", the more money in circulation and therefore the less each dollar is worth/has in purchasing power and thus prices rise to counteract the loss of value of the toilet paper, err I mean "money" soz!
Its simple economic laws of supply and demand; just like a baker that floods the market with loaves - to sell them all he will need to lower the price, ie the VALUE, of the bread. Oversupply = Lower Value. In the case of the money supply it works from the bottom up, so when you flood the market with more "money" (money & credit) you are reducing the value of each dollar and so it takes higher prices of things to maintain the business selling those things to maintain their profit levels/incomes!!!

So don't blame business owners for price rises!! They are just doing what they need to for survival! Prices going up is NOT inflation - inflation of the money supply is the cause of inflation - SO BLAME THE BANKS for issuing rediculous amounts of credit, and the GOVERNMENT for going into more debt that gets monetised!!!

And one more thing -if you guys want to know what REAL inflation is then look at the % that the money supply is being inflated by! The governement released CPI/RPI figures are a LIE!! They are full of substitutions and hedonic adjusments to keep the % down!!! They are NOT real!!!

If you want a real money with zero or miniscule inflation, write to your MP's and demand a return to sound money of a currency 100% backed by gold - its the ONLY way it can be done!!! Why? Because a governemnt that can issue debt that is NOT backed by gold reserves or print paper money at will, will ALWAYS do so to keep the people happy with social programs etc that they can't really afford and don't have the guts to be honest and tell people they will have to pay for in higher taxes and thus hope to get re-elected - it has been the same for centuries with any government not on a gold standard! And guess what - those paper fiat currencies HAVE ALWAYS FAILED IN THE END because of it - did you get that? ALWAYS!!!!! And EVERY time the only people who preserved their wealth and purchasing power were those who held gold and silver!!! ALWAYS!!!!

Hence the plight of the US dollar as Kip and I so rightly rant on about - its just a matter of time, and when it happens it will snowball into every other fiat paper currency eventually via hyperinflation of the currency! You want an example? Read this:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...son051806.html

More recently Argentina saw the same thing in 2004!


Think on!!!

Dave

Paladin

We live in a world of Globalization mate - its now all intertwined so the Oz-NZ relationship is no longer the only important factor!

The £ vs the US$ is rising because of the expectation of at least one, and now this week probably 2 interest rate rises in the UK due to higher inflation figures releaesed in the last few days, due to guess what, the BoE inflating the money supply at 15% pa!!!

Generally currencies follow the pattern of interest rate cycles primarily. This is because exchange rates have to obey what is called the law of Purchasing Power Parity or Interest Rate Parity. Hence the currency markets will be more in step with the Bond Markets rather than the Stock Markets, which are more intertwined with the economy.

One HUGE problem out there at the mo is that the BoJ has kept the base rate artificially low in Japan for a long time resulting in the Carry Trade. When they are eventually forced to put up rates in Japan, the money needing to flow back to Japan to pay off Yen loans is gonna cause a massive unwinding of the carry trade and currencies are gonna get sold off like no tomorrow versus the yen! Its just one more link in the giant Ponzi Scheme of the banks "money & credit wealth creation scheme" for the elites!!!

It will all end, as all pyramid schemes eventually do!!! And unfortunately as with most pyramid schemes, the average guy is gonna be the big loser, not the ones who started the damn thing!

You wanna protect yourself? Have some gold in your possession!!! 24 carat gold coins in NZ(eg 1oz Kiwi's) are FREE of GST!!!!! Buy some - its a store of wealth!!!

Dave

Paladin

Here's something to think about:

If the inflation rate IS really what the governement reports and most peoples wage increases are inflation rate or inflation plus a bit, then you should be maintaining your purchasing power. Right?

Well are you?

Do things seem to be getting more expensive AND less affordable? Do you have less disposable income than say 5 years ago? 2 years ago?

If first time buyers of houses have wage increases equal to or a bit above infaltion, why can't they afford houses any more??? One reason is because the REAL rate of inflation is at least twice what the governments lying published rate is!!!!

If your wages are increasing at or above inflation, why is the level of consumer borrowing the highest its ever been??? Cos people can't afford stuff anymore - thats why!!! And why's that? Cos prices are rising faster than peoples wages, ie the REAL rate of inflation is way higher than our lying governments want us to know about!

Dave

Kippers

We don't actually have a reserve requirement in NZ now.
It's all fly-by-wire:

In 1985, New Zealand was the first country to abandon reserve ratios completely, and we are still among the minority in not having a ratio system at all.

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/review/0096420.html

Kip

Paladin

OH SH1TE! I didn't realise they had removed ALL reserve requirements! Geez thats even worse!!! I was under the impression there were still reserve requirements for lending! Nasty!!! God help the NZ Dollar!!!

Cheers for the info!

Dave

Kippers

That's true.
I know the average American has a lower standard of living now than 30 years ago.
Medical insurance and pensions being just two essentials disappearing from citizens lives.

Need a second revolution to rid themselves of the rat-bags stealing the money.

Kip