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Man made global warming...

View Poll Results: Do you think global warming likely?
What is global warming?
1
3.23%
Man made global warming seems likely.
15
48.39%
Naturally occurring global warming seems likely.
7
22.58%
The evidence is not conclusive either way.
2
6.45%
Global warming seems unlikely.
1
3.23%
The effects of man on climate are negligible.
5
16.13%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

Man made global warming...

Old Nov 16th 2009, 6:53 pm
  #1  
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Smile Man made global warming...

With New Zealand set to expend, as I understand it over $100bn, on climate change between now and 2050 (if you want some measure of how immense that is it’s over $21,000 for every person in New Zealand) I was wondering what conclusions you had reached about the causes of global warming with so much conflicting evidence.
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Old Nov 16th 2009, 10:32 pm
  #2  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

If man was removed from the planet 100 years ago would it be in the same poor state it is today ?
Hyperthetical i know but i cant really see how anyone could answer yes,
therefore you would have to say the current problem with global warming is man made
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Old Nov 16th 2009, 10:57 pm
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Wink Re: Man made global warming...

You have noticed global warming happening?

It’s interesting to me that the most accurate data we have from satellites built specially to monitor just this effect (GISS) by measuring various radiation reflection levels indicates...slight cooling:.

Draw your own conclusions about the climate change hypothesis .

What is it they say about science again? Heaps of evidence but no absolute proof?
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Old Nov 16th 2009, 11:08 pm
  #4  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

People who have lived in my area in the US for a long time, have all commented on how much hotter it has become, with far more wildfires.
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Old Nov 17th 2009, 6:03 pm
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
With New Zealand set to expend, as I understand it over $100bn, on climate change between now and 2050 (if you want some measure of how immense that is it’s over $21,000 for every person in New Zealand) I was wondering what conclusions you had reached about the causes of global warming with so much conflicting evidence.
I think the science of greenhouse gases such as CO2 acting as an insulator for re-radiated infra-red heat is pretty sound and don't see any scientists arguing against it.

I think that humans have emitted billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels (that have been stored out of the climate cycle for many millions of years) and have therefore added to this greenhouse effect.

I think that measurements of CO2 (and other GG's) indicate that current levels are much higher than they have been in a very long time.

I gather that recent cooling might be related to "global dimming" - the huge amounts of SOx and other pollution particles emitted by China's industrialization that restrict sunlight getting to earth. Perhaps when developing countries reduce this pollution the masked warming trend may continue.
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Old Nov 17th 2009, 7:02 pm
  #6  
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Smile Re: Man made global warming...

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
...and don't see any scientists arguing against it.
Like Richard Lindzen? There are many more as well of course. By enlarge most scientists do think the hypothesis to be valid.

If the most accurate data we have contradicts our hypothesis however do we carry on blind to the actual experimental data?

It's interesting that on a small scale I can shine a light at a container filled with carbon dioxide and measure temperature change more rapidly, then record an increase in temperature. I can also find out that the effect is approximately proportional to the logarithm of the concentration, so each extra ppm will be less effective at raising temperature

Of course this doesn't seem to work in the real world with real experimental data...

My point is actually that we are expending a lot of resources on a problem that may not really exist. I think folks need to think about this carefully, do you see my point?
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Old Nov 17th 2009, 7:26 pm
  #7  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

There are lots of scientists arguing about it.

You can find tons of information out there in cyberland, for and against. Let me know if you want some links.

(I work for an environmental organisation.)
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Old Nov 17th 2009, 9:13 pm
  #8  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

Originally Posted by Seasider View Post
There are lots of scientists arguing about it.

You can find tons of information out there in cyberland, for and against. Let me know if you want some links.

(I work for an environmental organisation.)
There are scientists arguing that CO2 does not block (OK absorb) infra-red radiation?

Last edited by Cape Blue; Nov 17th 2009 at 9:31 pm.
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Old Nov 17th 2009, 9:30 pm
  #9  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
Like Richard Lindzen? There are many more as well of course. By enlarge most scientists do think the hypothesis to be valid.

If the most accurate data we have contradicts our hypothesis however do we carry on blind to the actual experimental data?

It's interesting that on a small scale I can shine a light at a container filled with carbon dioxide and measure temperature change more rapidly, then record an increase in temperature. I can also find out that the effect is approximately proportional to the logarithm of the concentration, so each extra ppm will be less effective at raising temperature

Of course this doesn't seem to work in the real world with real experimental data...

My point is actually that we are expending a lot of resources on a problem that may not really exist. I think folks need to think about this carefully, do you see my point?
Is he actually arguing that infra-red radiation is not absorbed by increased greenhouse gases? Is he arguing against the basic physics?

I am not sure I understand you light-shining example.

My take is that the complexity of CC with its multiple feedback loops is at the far end of our capacity to comprehend and that certainly no one without both advanced degrees in related subjects & who have worked and researched in the field for many years, can fully appreciate the situation.

Without trying to jump heavily into the ad hominem http://logicalscience.com/skeptics/Lindzen.htm there are always going to be some who swim against conventional thinking - occasionally they turn out to be correct, but the vast majority of the time the thousands of other suitably qualified and experienced people from around the world, who have reached consensus over many years of arguing, are more likely to be right.
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Old Nov 17th 2009, 10:06 pm
  #10  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

We're all screwed. NZ will be under water in years to come, we better all go and live on Mars.
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Old Nov 18th 2009, 4:40 am
  #11  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

Originally Posted by Perry Groves View Post
We're all screwed. NZ will be under water in years to come, we better all go and live on Mars.
Not going there. Men are from Mars
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Old Nov 18th 2009, 11:00 am
  #12  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

Originally Posted by BEVS View Post
Not going there. Men are from Mars
and most of the AGW-Skeptic stuff is from the scientific equivalent of Uranus........

go on check out the credentials of many of the real sceptics and you'll find evidence there along with a bit of history of being "renta-expert" for the oil, tobacco, asbestos, etc industries.....or Conservative/religious tendencies that mark them out as being a little less than even-handed......maybe......

myself I am a "precautionary principle" person and did a little work on IR absorbtion of CO2 at University......but that was so long ago that I'm not qualified to speak about it.

I will say, however, that synergstic interactions are an issue that many of us can't hope to predict and that simpliying the relationship between surface temperatures and the increase in [CO2] is rather an over-simplification......also not all the spend on alternative energy sources and the increased costs of making/disposing of things is a cost with the *only* benefit being a reduction in the carbon footprint, there are other benefits, which may add up in the (perhaps, very) long term to a nett gain.......maybe.

we'll wait and see I suppose and I for one hope the doom-sayers are very wrong!
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Old Nov 24th 2009, 7:50 am
  #13  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

I don't think global warming is a man-made thing. I think it is a natural process of periodic warming and cooling.
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Old Nov 24th 2009, 3:53 pm
  #14  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

Why do you think that?
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Old Nov 24th 2009, 4:08 pm
  #15  
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Default Re: Man made global warming...

Originally Posted by TeamEmbo View Post
I don't think global warming is a man-made thing. I think it is a natural process of periodic warming and cooling.
Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Why do you think that?
Have a read here:

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
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