j19fmm

Hi all, had this email this morning from an estate agent in Cambridge,Waikato. Thought some others might find it interesting. And, if you're already there, do you feel it's realistic?

"The media are doing their best to try & bring the market down it seems given their commentaries.

A few important things to remember.

1. Most of their commentary is on residential and not lifestyle properties or farms.



2. Their commentary is often on the Auckland market where 25%-30% of the population lives.



3. The Waikato market & in particular Cambridge market is as such:

(a) First 4 months of 2008 the volume of Rural sales(lifestyle/farms) is down only 14% on 2007.

(b) farm prices are up on 2007 & lifestyle negligible change.

(c ) It is not a buyers market in the entry level of lifestyle properties near Cambridge($4-$600K). I would struggle to get to double figures

with the volume on the market so buyers are still limited to choice.

(d) Do I expect prices for lifestyle properties to weaken here in Cambridge. I believe minimal if any

Why? – Cambridge continues to have a migration gain- Hamilton people, Auckland people & overseas people( particular South African & UK) arriving.

80% of my lifestyle sales over the last 2 yrs have been non Cambridge people

- Interest rates have dropped a little over the last month

- Dairy farmers are looking at another good dairy payout 08/09 season & Mother Nature is likely to be a bit kinder this season than last. Money will

flow to the service industries associated with farming



4 It is election year-est by November. The current party Labour is well behind in the polls. A budget comes out today. Emphasis from both major parties(Labour +National)

Is that tax cuts will take place. This will help those with mortgages



So there is my state of the nation!!"

Well what do you think?

dlmckay

Looks very similar to the 1/4 page ad Ray White currently have in the Property Press this week.. d'you think they're feeling the squeeze!

Bellasmum

Budget prediction.....

The economy is in a sharp slowdown because of high interest rates, drought and falling house prices, which are expected to drop 7 per cent by March next year, according to Treasury forecasts.


Now we just have to wait and see how accurate that really is !

Genesis

They are going to come down like they always do after unsustainable price growth. Alas it really impacts on those who bought at the top of the market.



Now is certainly not the time to buy. Things will still be levelling I reckon in over 12 months. Rent, rent, rent.

lardyl

spot on dude..............

oh and save, save, save..............

dlmckay

No, you're wrong... now is the time to buy my house!

lardyl

yes it is ..........
buy her house
buy her house
buy her house.........

Wiz'n'Ton

You reckon? I think the levelling has already happened here in ChCh, with sellers who have to sell meeting the market. I only say this cos we have had an offer accepted on a place we love - was originally $399k, accepted $366k after some bargaining.

After 2 months of careful studying, the feeling we've got is that people are either pissing (and selling their house by meeting market) or getting off the pot (and just taking it off the market).

With no interest rate cuts due now till next year, people will want to buy before then and people will need to sell.

The market has certainly seen a big correction already - I don't expect massive changes in prices here from what we currently see.

Just my 2 cents - let's hope we're not a billion miles out, eh?

dlmckay

I think you're right on the money Wiz. House prices have already corrected.

8 months ago, we could have asked $420K for our house... but due to market softening, it's been put on at $389K - hopefully we'll get the $380K that we want!

sgaur

I feel that market prices of housing are coming down globally.

chocolate cake

I'd agree house prices in NZ and UK have been time, and there's a correction happening. It shouldn't bother anyone moving in the same market though, you'll get less for your own property, and pay less on the next one. At the end of the day it's home you're buying.
It's more complicated if you're selling in one area and moving into another country though.

Batty

The agency I work for is being kept in profit because of its rural sales so I'd agree that the original post wasn't far off the mark. It's true that people are either meeting the market or withdrawing the properties, or, as in our case, deciding not to try to sell at all at the moment. It'll be interesting to see what the situation is in October/November.

lardyl

Indeed, and maybe I'm a cynical person with little in the way of fiscal skill but at the end of the day is it not better for most families (ie those who are starting out and moving to something more expensive) if the market is tending back towards the "more affordable". In those cases it's all about differentials between what assets you have and what you want to buy.

Maybe a correction will calm down the Kiwi obsession with moving around the neighbourhood to find the ideal home......

BTW, a generally falling market is bad news for me as I only currently own property in the UK and am thinking about selling it in the short to medium term......but rents are pretty affordable here, compared to forking out for a large mortgage, IMHO that is.

Dezza

I'd wait until the house sold until I made any predictions! You might be tempting fate

dlmckay

always liked living on the edge! LOL we'll just have to see won't we?

My house has been on the market for four weeks and we've had 9 sets of viewers - none brave enough to write a number down on an Agreement Form yet though