House prices NZ
#1
House prices NZ
Hi all, had this email this morning from an estate agent in Cambridge,Waikato. Thought some others might find it interesting. And, if you're already there, do you feel it's realistic?
"The media are doing their best to try & bring the market down it seems given their commentaries.
A few important things to remember.
1. Most of their commentary is on residential and not lifestyle properties or farms.
2. Their commentary is often on the Auckland market where 25%-30% of the population lives.
3. The Waikato market & in particular Cambridge market is as such:
(a) First 4 months of 2008 the volume of Rural sales(lifestyle/farms) is down only 14% on 2007.
(b) farm prices are up on 2007 & lifestyle negligible change.
(c ) It is not a buyers market in the entry level of lifestyle properties near Cambridge($4-$600K). I would struggle to get to double figures
with the volume on the market so buyers are still limited to choice.
(d) Do I expect prices for lifestyle properties to weaken here in Cambridge. I believe minimal if any
Why? – Cambridge continues to have a migration gain- Hamilton people, Auckland people & overseas people( particular South African & UK) arriving.
80% of my lifestyle sales over the last 2 yrs have been non Cambridge people
- Interest rates have dropped a little over the last month
- Dairy farmers are looking at another good dairy payout 08/09 season & Mother Nature is likely to be a bit kinder this season than last. Money will
flow to the service industries associated with farming
4 It is election year-est by November. The current party Labour is well behind in the polls. A budget comes out today. Emphasis from both major parties(Labour +National)
Is that tax cuts will take place. This will help those with mortgages
So there is my state of the nation!!"
Well what do you think?
"The media are doing their best to try & bring the market down it seems given their commentaries.
A few important things to remember.
1. Most of their commentary is on residential and not lifestyle properties or farms.
2. Their commentary is often on the Auckland market where 25%-30% of the population lives.
3. The Waikato market & in particular Cambridge market is as such:
(a) First 4 months of 2008 the volume of Rural sales(lifestyle/farms) is down only 14% on 2007.
(b) farm prices are up on 2007 & lifestyle negligible change.
(c ) It is not a buyers market in the entry level of lifestyle properties near Cambridge($4-$600K). I would struggle to get to double figures
with the volume on the market so buyers are still limited to choice.
(d) Do I expect prices for lifestyle properties to weaken here in Cambridge. I believe minimal if any
Why? – Cambridge continues to have a migration gain- Hamilton people, Auckland people & overseas people( particular South African & UK) arriving.
80% of my lifestyle sales over the last 2 yrs have been non Cambridge people
- Interest rates have dropped a little over the last month
- Dairy farmers are looking at another good dairy payout 08/09 season & Mother Nature is likely to be a bit kinder this season than last. Money will
flow to the service industries associated with farming
4 It is election year-est by November. The current party Labour is well behind in the polls. A budget comes out today. Emphasis from both major parties(Labour +National)
Is that tax cuts will take place. This will help those with mortgages
So there is my state of the nation!!"
Well what do you think?
#2
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Nov 2004
Location: Waitakere City
Posts: 539
Re: House prices NZ
Looks very similar to the 1/4 page ad Ray White currently have in the Property Press this week.. d'you think they're feeling the squeeze!
10 Reasons to Buy Now
- Choice of property. Less competition amongst buyer generates good buying.
- New homes offered cannot be replaced in the money. Homes to be constructed on remaining sections will be smaller or more expensive.
- Sections are limited. New release land costs mroe to develop. Land is unlikely to fall in price medium term.
- Few building cnosents are being issued. As properties on teh market are being bought less new stock will replace it. Reduced choice and opportunity.
- Increased wages, cost of materials and inflation will cause the cost of new construction to rise.
- As investors sell of their rental properties, rents will rise and properties become harder to obtain.
- Picking the absolute bottom of the market is very difficult and when it turns it tends to move very fast.
- Interest rates are to be predicted to start falling at the end of the year, some are already droppiong i.e. BNZ 5 year money. When they do many buyers will enter the market.
- You can stop looking and get on with livnig.
- Its time of full employment, wages are under upward pressure, tax cuts are coming and some banks predict interest falsl less than 6 months away. This is a good time to buy, a buyers market in fact.
#3
Re: House prices NZ
Budget prediction.....
The economy is in a sharp slowdown because of high interest rates, drought and falling house prices, which are expected to drop 7 per cent by March next year, according to Treasury forecasts.
Now we just have to wait and see how accurate that really is !
The economy is in a sharp slowdown because of high interest rates, drought and falling house prices, which are expected to drop 7 per cent by March next year, according to Treasury forecasts.
Now we just have to wait and see how accurate that really is !
#4
Re: House prices NZ
Budget prediction.....
The economy is in a sharp slowdown because of high interest rates, drought and falling house prices, which are expected to drop 7 per cent by March next year, according to Treasury forecasts.
Now we just have to wait and see how accurate that really is !
The economy is in a sharp slowdown because of high interest rates, drought and falling house prices, which are expected to drop 7 per cent by March next year, according to Treasury forecasts.
Now we just have to wait and see how accurate that really is !
Now is certainly not the time to buy. Things will still be levelling I reckon in over 12 months. Rent, rent, rent.
Last edited by Genesis; May 23rd 2008 at 12:04 am.
#8
Re: House prices NZ
After 2 months of careful studying, the feeling we've got is that people are either pissing (and selling their house by meeting market) or getting off the pot (and just taking it off the market).
With no interest rate cuts due now till next year, people will want to buy before then and people will need to sell.
The market has certainly seen a big correction already - I don't expect massive changes in prices here from what we currently see.
Just my 2 cents - let's hope we're not a billion miles out, eh?
#9
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Nov 2004
Location: Waitakere City
Posts: 539
Re: House prices NZ
I think you're right on the money Wiz. House prices have already corrected.
8 months ago, we could have asked $420K for our house... but due to market softening, it's been put on at $389K - hopefully we'll get the $380K that we want!
8 months ago, we could have asked $420K for our house... but due to market softening, it's been put on at $389K - hopefully we'll get the $380K that we want!
#10
Just Joined
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 11
Re: House prices NZ
Budget prediction.....
The economy is in a sharp slowdown because of high interest rates, drought and falling house prices, which are expected to drop 7 per cent by March next year, according to Treasury forecasts.
Now we just have to wait and see how accurate that really is !
The economy is in a sharp slowdown because of high interest rates, drought and falling house prices, which are expected to drop 7 per cent by March next year, according to Treasury forecasts.
Now we just have to wait and see how accurate that really is !
#11
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: permanently locked down
Posts: 733
Re: House prices NZ
I'd agree house prices in NZ and UK have been time, and there's a correction happening. It shouldn't bother anyone moving in the same market though, you'll get less for your own property, and pay less on the next one. At the end of the day it's home you're buying.
It's more complicated if you're selling in one area and moving into another country though.
It's more complicated if you're selling in one area and moving into another country though.
#12
By name and by nature
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,852
Re: House prices NZ
The agency I work for is being kept in profit because of its rural sales so I'd agree that the original post wasn't far off the mark. It's true that people are either meeting the market or withdrawing the properties, or, as in our case, deciding not to try to sell at all at the moment. It'll be interesting to see what the situation is in October/November.
#13
you dewty owld maan!
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: is practically perfect in every way
Posts: 5,565
Re: House prices NZ
I'd agree house prices in NZ and UK have been time, and there's a correction happening. It shouldn't bother anyone moving in the same market though, you'll get less for your own property, and pay less on the next one. At the end of the day it's home you're buying.
It's more complicated if you're selling in one area and moving into another country though.
It's more complicated if you're selling in one area and moving into another country though.
Maybe a correction will calm down the Kiwi obsession with moving around the neighbourhood to find the ideal home......
BTW, a generally falling market is bad news for me as I only currently own property in the UK and am thinking about selling it in the short to medium term......but rents are pretty affordable here, compared to forking out for a large mortgage, IMHO that is.
#14
Forum Regular
Joined: Sep 2007
Location: West Sussex
Posts: 53
Re: House prices NZ
I'd wait until the house sold until I made any predictions! You might be tempting fate
#15
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Nov 2004
Location: Waitakere City
Posts: 539
Re: House prices NZ
My house has been on the market for four weeks and we've had 9 sets of viewers - none brave enough to write a number down on an Agreement Form yet though