Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

If you are willing to wait long enough then all things (and exchange rates) may be possible, as they say "the value of your investments may go down as well as up", holds true for currency rates too.

We still have issues yet to come into play in the UK. A kez one is that the public sector expansion has kept the employment numbers higher than they would otherwise (ie reduced the recessionary unemployment), however that expansion is going to turn into a contraction over the next few months (post election anyone??), if the private sector can't expand fast enough to create jobs to replace the public sector ones that will be lost then unemployment will rise again and we can all say hello to a double-dip recession. :(

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

I agree to a degree...but what if the currency book is being re written PERMANENTLY? No one ever guessed the kiwi would become so strong and by contrast the GBP so weak. 1 year ago we could have gotten around $2.85ish. GB LTD had been in BIG trouble well before this..the writing was on the wall to a degree for a while and whilst we saw a roller coaster from 2.50 to almost 3 in that period before the BIG drop no one could have ever guessed it would plumb to c2.10. There is talk of 'correction' re GBP's value. There is talk of 1.50 being possible. What if we are on a downward trend? What if it never ever gets above 2.30. The GBP will be gone soon anyways from what I read..what time does it have left? 3-5 years? I am glad Kate has called on this one and is hoping of a bounce back. I could not bear to be responsible for another fiscal screw up if 2.11 in time shows to have been a bloody good deal.:eek::eek:

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

We will soon be seeing images like these:

Woman burning stacks of worthless currency in her stove for heat, Germany 1923

and

Children playing with stack of worthless currency, Germany 1923

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Here's a chart of the £ against the NZ dollar for the past 10 years.

Spot any trend? :eek:

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Hmm, tells us two things, firstly you would have to be a brave person to bet against the long term trend although there could be some short term recovery IF you time it right and IF there is an increase to come - no guarantee of that.

...and in 20yrs the £ will be worth nothing :eek:

In other words simply being prepared to wait does not guarantee a better rate is there to be had.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Its not really clear to me..can anyone help?

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Free fall

Crash dive

Deep six

is this helping??

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Nope..I'm just not getting it..is there a trend happening here..some kind of pattern? Its quite pretty really..looks like a bit of a ski slope. I wonder why I am so crap with money? Looks like a great time to buy kiwi $s with my pounds..look I only have to give one crappy pound and I will get almost 2.1 kiwis. I am off to the money dealers.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

There you are, you are getting it, the 10-year trend is down, just like a ski slope, sure there are some rises that the snowboard boys would jump off but then it goes down again....

So taking that long term trend, waiting just means you end up further down the slope...:(

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

So you reckon its going lower and lower? Would you exchange a substantial amount now if you did not need the money in NZ now or would you wait out the storm for maybe a number of years? We are getting a heady 2% interest on Kate inheritance. The only benefit to getting it over here is we could earn 6% here.

But the thought of it being 2.30 in 6 weeks time means even more money we have lost in the last 5 years....another $40k or thereabouts. That's alot of money aye to gamble, like wise if it sinks another 20cents the loss is there if we don't act now..oh what to do??

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

is that sterling getting weaker or NZ$ getting stronger? What would the NZ$ graph Vs the Euro or US$ look like?

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Go to the HIFX banner on the front page of BE. Then click on 'market watch'. Then go to 'currency charts', then you chose what currency you want under 'instruments' at the top left of the graph. Then click on 'timescale' for the depth of time you wish to depress yourself with!!

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

This is the Euro against the NZ$ over 10 years....

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

...and this is the US$ against the NZ$

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

I reckon over the next 12mths the better firm interest earned will more than beat any addition to the capital via a better exchange rate, and IMHO the risk over the next 12mths is all on the downside for the exchange rate.

The trick is to make a decision then stop checking the rate - unless you keep checking house prices at all your old addresses too :D

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Over a year on the amount we would exchange (taking 2.1 as the rate) would be $21k before tax at 20% in NZ, just over $7 k in the UK . That is the difference betwixt 2% ain the Uk and 6 % here. So that is $14k better off over a year if we do it now. Not much really when you consider if it rallies to $2.3 I mentioned we would be about $40k better off. I think the more I ponder this I am in Kate's camp..hang on. I know there is risk but its worth it..especially if one does not need the cash for start up costs..if I was emigrating I would just do it as I would need to. I don't so I won't. The GBP has recently rallied to the 42.3 mark..why not again. Lets all talk up the GBP.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Think we are going to transfer our remaining GBP over now as don't want the risk.

Like I said previously, when we went to Oz the general consensous was that unless you had to transfer, then wait as it should get better in the next 12 months. We transfered GBP to AUD at 2.21 but 12 months later it was 1.64 so I'm bloody glad we did transfer!

Even at 2.12 GBP/NZD that aint bad. If we leave it another year and the same thing happens with the NZD then we would lose $12k! :(

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

I can see your point but I like a bit of risk aye? Anyways ..what ever I do will be wrong..fecked if I do fecked if I don't..so I will leave the choice to the good lady wife..its her inheritance after all..all my money went to those poverty stricken finance magnates at Hanover. I rest easy knowing they need it waaaaaaaaay more than I do..one of them is building a 30 million house..my $100k must be coming in really handy for say a sink, a work top or a few door handles. God I wish those blokes some really, really baaaaaaaaaaaad karma.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

You are right, it ain't bad. Its the worstest worstest worstestest it has ever ever ever been. It may look good when it goes below 2 to the pound but just now you could not get worst rate..ever. Maybe apart from tomorrow. But it is not good just now.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

I know. We had a family friend move to NZ years and years ago and they got nearly 3 GBP/NZD at the time.

I'm only going on my last experience with a currency exchange and how if I had waited we would have lost a serious amount of dosh. As it was we waited 3 months anyway and lost $5000AUD doing that.

Horrible isn't it though. Lose money when you earn it/taxed on it/save it/spend it/convert it. Dammed if you do, dammed if you don't.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Well looks like you have the right idea mate...its plumbing towards 2.10. How friggin' stuffed are we, those who hold bastard pounds and live elsewhere hoping to change our UK money? Two really, really good bits of info last week for the UK re unemployment and decreased borrowings..yet the pound continues to be all but worthless. Well the vista looks clear to me. Soon we will have parity with the pound...one for one by xmas?? Now if I can get Kate to see the writing on the wall...I am sick of this and want out. Who cares if its $2.50 after the election..we know it won't..more like 1.50.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Its now like a really fast train crash..I mean REALLY fast. It loses gound with every bloody hour!!! SELL YOUR GBPs..abandon ship!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Well the budget seems to have caused the GBP to drop even further today :eek:

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

lalalalalalalalalalalallalalalalalalllalalalalalal alalalalalalalalalalalalalalalal
cant hear you :p

:o apologies not feeling very grown up today

Dewb

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

LOL!!!

I was very impressed at how the children played in parliament, scoring (or trying to), the same points off each other while the currency faltered.

I am going to take so much pleasure in note voting for any of them - just wish there was something more positive to do.... now who looks most suitable for a protest vote???? :D

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

:rofl:
Have you every watched live parliment :eek: ok so I was at home ill and desperate, I see better behaviour in the playground of the school I work (Primary)

I am def voting green party

Dewb

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

May I ask if many (or any) are taking the plunge with their life savings and changing up now? We are going to wait and see what happens after the election. I have done loads of research on the GBP and found that some say it will bounce back and is not a dead duck whilst others say abandon ship and save yourself. One link from the currency page on this site kindly given by HIFX give 5 reasons why the pound has had it for the forseeable future. Others say that sentiment towards the pound is bullish (I think that means its possibly going to strengthen). Others say it is a force to be reckoned with and the euro is alson in for a really hard time. Interestingly the pound is losing ground agin the US $ but gaining on the euro. Will it be going south of 2 sooner than later?

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

I am pretty certain the misses and I will be bringing over the remains of our savings this week. Got our 3 yr work permit approved the other week so we are here to stay for the forsiable future, so not going to take the risk, and just get it over here now.

Once bitten....

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

IMHO - I would keep the pounds over in the UK. Yes the pound is slipping, and it may go lower, but I'm positive it will be higher than the current rate at some not too distant point in the future. You only have to look at wages in this country and the UK - I'm sure that the minimum wage, and average salary is higher in NZ than in UK right now.
I would suggest leaving what money you dont need immediately in the UK - come to NZ and enjoy a higher salary (in GBP converted terms).
After the election whichever party is in power will have to address the deficit - Labour will not do anything painful now before an election.
You will be going to visit the UK in the future - so its a good idea to hedge your bets.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Hmmm, be careful, of course any salary and cost of living comparison has just shifted due to the very exchange rate move under discussion, it can be circular logic to use the results of that shift to argue that the shift will be reversed (or increased).

Unless you have the slightly strange and unusual luxury of earning in NZ but spending your salary in the UK how can you "enjoy a higher salary in GBP converted terms"??? Most people will need to enjoy their NZ salary in the same UK shops as before so the relative spending power is unchanged. :confused:

Many threads on here ask for ideas of relative spending power, cost of living, how far does such-and-such salary go, this is exactly the right approach, anyone going to NZ based simply on their idea of the UK equivalent salary is hugely exposed to the reality check they will get on landing....

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Obviously, the pound is down, down, down now because of the election coming up. We can't expect it to get better at the moment, and if Brown get close with a hung parliament then it will hit the floor. However, things do change and with Cameron with a good majority should give a boost to investment and get the pound upwards again, but even this will take some time, I fear. But, the pound is not the only thing determining the NZ dollar. Keep an eye on the euro.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Cant do a thing until we sell house anyway :rolleyes: but we are thinking of either leaving it all here for a year and just rent in NZ or put half in better interest rate savings account in NZ and leaving half here hoping that things improve, just trying to hedge our bets really.

Dewb

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Remember Dewboy, as a resident of NZ you will pay tax on your interest that you accumulate here. That knocks a bit off the given interest rate.

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Mmmmm had not thought about that :unsure:

Dewb

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Better to pay tax on 6% than have a tax-free 1% though IMHO...but I would have thought the interest in either UK or NZ would be taxed by either IRD or HMRC (hopefully not both), so same tax take would apply to both no?:confused:

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

You have to pay tax on any overseas earnings in NZ if you are resident here...so long as tax has not already been paid in the other country. I have one tax free acct in the UK but I declare it here and pay kiwi tax on it. I arrived before the 4 years 'no tax on overseas earnings for 4 yrs' exemption. If you take the latter remeber as someone else pointed out you CANNOT claim for 'family tax credits' (go to www.ird.govt.nz for an explanation) if you take this option up. The pound slipped to below 2.10 overnight. Will it REALLY hit 'rock bottom' if its hung or the Labour lot stay in. What is rock bottom?? 1 GBP = 1 cent?

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Rock bottom was shown in the picture in an earlier post....where children play with stacks of currency and it is burnt to keep warm :eek:

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

I have changed money twice - sent over that is. I got 2.12 on Mon and 2.8 today. Was advised to change it 6 weeks ago at 2.25. Guess how i'm feelin today!!!

Cheers

HH

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

:eek:

...guess really 2.08 :(

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

I just got 2.04 with HIFX. Although I'm only changing what I need.Will leave the rest in the UK and live off the wage, here.......once the tools arrive and I can actually start work!