UK's great property crash

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Old Mar 19th 2008, 1:40 am
  #61  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by Tableland
I think this depends on what you mean by in many parts. In terms of the UK it's more about what type of property rather than location. For example, some flats have already lost large percentages. These lost value because they built too many of them, which I understand was the problem in parts of the US. However, 3/4 bedroom houses which are not being built are still retaining value in the UK because they just are not being built in big enough numbers to deal with the demand for them. We've been warned of a crash since 1996, and particularly in this last year, but first-time buyers see no change and are fed up with renting.

As for rent, it costs the same to rent or pay a mortgage off on our property because we looked in to letting it out. and the mortgage option will get cheaper this yeat as the BOE is heavily presumed to bring rate down closer to 4% by the end of 2009.
I find it hard to believe that any property in the U.K could turn a profit on rental if you borrowed 100% of the funds. But maybe I'm wrong.

On a wider issue, 3/4 bedroom houses are attractive to those who want to buy (compared to flats/apartments), but often less attractive to those who want to rent.

Warnings of a crash in 1996 were just foolish sentiment because prices were just above trough and it was a lot cheaper at the time to buy rather than rent (an indicator that prices were too low). Now it's the reverse.
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Old Mar 19th 2008, 1:43 am
  #62  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by jojosan
Here's hoping! Bad news for those wishing to sell, but maybe good for us returners...
Great news for us returnees. But on the other hand, i am in the same boat as those trying to sell too. I feel the joy and pain equally.
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Old Mar 19th 2008, 12:28 pm
  #63  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by Nu-Shooz
Great news for us returnees. But on the other hand, i am in the same boat as those trying to sell too. I feel the joy and pain equally.
Yea welcome back to the giant floating estate agent conference. Lets hope all this doom and gloom will stop people constantly going on about how much their houses are worth!

Remember people... falling prices mean bad times economically. You may be able to afford a house but you'll have to find a job in a bad job market.
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Old Mar 19th 2008, 1:37 pm
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

I dont believe a word an estate agent says - so sorry to any estate agents reading this. if they said it was sunny outside i'd take my umbrella. estate agents only make money if they are shifting houses so they will say ANYTHING to sell. estate agents and stockbrokers only make money if they are shifting gear therefore they will talk the market up/down just to get people to buy/sell. pick up the west australian property section and there they are telling you that some dodgy area is ripe for the picking, the next big thing, just to get you to buy a crappy rundown shack there.

its the same the world over. if they say en masse that house prices are rising in suburb X, then they will because people will believe it pay more for a house in subrub X therefore its a self full filling prophecy. if they say - dont buy in place y its going right down the toilet - then thats exactly what will happen.

they are the seed of the devil!!!!!!!!
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Old Mar 19th 2008, 10:29 pm
  #65  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

When we sold our house, we had 3 agents, all of which quoted prices that were widely divergent. In the end we went with the middle one, which turned out to be a wise move. One of the ones we didn't use was very disparaging and told us we were wildly overpriced compared to the house he had just shifted up the road.

"Oh" I said. "Do you mean the one with the stepped cracks on the end indicating severe subsidence?? " (I have a friend who is a structural engineer who often chats about his work.)

Seldom have I seen a man go so pale, so quickly, and leave so abruptly.

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Old Mar 20th 2008, 7:53 am
  #66  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by jad n rich
Had a browse on findaproperty etc, keep hearing the doom and gloom, so was pretty surprised to see prices look just about the same as they were a year or so ago

I can see there is more property for sale, but its hardly dropped in price has it

What sort of price drops are people talking about, my brother dropped 10k to sell after his divorce, is that what a crash is in UK these days.

Come on spill the beans wheres the magic bargains
weve just bought a house after renting since last sept,and got £30k knocked off.better if you can rent really,it makes you the ideal buyer.
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Old Mar 21st 2008, 8:05 am
  #67  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

The so-called property crash is more theory than practice...at least at the moment.

So, unless pressured to do so (eg unemployed or emigrating), most home-owners will just sit tight and wait for the prices to recover. What this means is that there is an increasing gap between buyer and seller expectations and fewer and fewer houses on the market.

In other words, if you're a buyer, lower prices are great, but you've got to find somebody who wants to sell first! Also, it will hit new builds as property developers realise they can't maximise gains, so will hold off building new properties. Which makes the situation worse.

Last edited by MikeStanton; Mar 21st 2008 at 8:08 am.
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Old Mar 21st 2008, 8:07 am
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by MikeStanton
The so-called property crash is more theory than practice...at least at the moment.

So, unless pressured to do so (eg unemployed or emigrating), most home-owners will just sit tight and wait for the prices to recover. What this means is that there is an increasing gap between buyer and seller expectations and fewer and fewer houses on the market.

In other words, if you're a buyer, lower prices are great, but you've got to find somebody who wants to sell first!
Also depends on how quickly/desperate they are to sell.
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Old Mar 21st 2008, 8:14 am
  #69  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by brits1
Well hope so...we are looking at Marple in Cheshire.....which area are you looking at?
what a beautiful area!!
we are from bramhall just around the corner
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Old Mar 21st 2008, 10:10 am
  #70  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by MikeStanton
The so-called property crash is more theory than practice...at least at the moment.

So, unless pressured to do so (eg unemployed or emigrating), most home-owners will just sit tight and wait for the prices to recover. What this means is that there is an increasing gap between buyer and seller expectations and fewer and fewer houses on the market.

In other words, if you're a buyer, lower prices are great, but you've got to find somebody who wants to sell first! Also, it will hit new builds as property developers realise they can't maximise gains, so will hold off building new properties. Which makes the situation worse.
The other problem with new builds (apartments, mostly) is that lenders are much more reluctant to finance new build apartments because they are the sector of the housing market that has suffered the most (falling values) in the last 12-24 months. As many potential apartment buyers are first-timers, and lenders are tightening to lower LTV percentages, there are a stack of new build apartments sitting unsold.
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Old Mar 21st 2008, 11:53 am
  #71  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by ellie10990
what a beautiful area!!
we are from bramhall just around the corner
I used to live in the Bramhall area...on the Bramhall/Cheadle Hulme border.
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Old Mar 22nd 2008, 1:38 am
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by MikeStanton
The so-called property crash is more theory than practice...at least at the moment.

So, unless pressured to do so (eg unemployed or emigrating), most home-owners will just sit tight and wait for the prices to recover. What this means is that there is an increasing gap between buyer and seller expectations and fewer and fewer houses on the market.

In other words, if you're a buyer, lower prices are great, but you've got to find somebody who wants to sell first! Also, it will hit new builds as property developers realise they can't maximise gains, so will hold off building new properties. Which makes the situation worse.
Another bonus of this argument (that house prices stall during the mexican standoff between sellers and buyers) is there will be a major cull of estate agents as there wont be enough activity in the current market to support them all. Also all those annoying property ramping TV shows like location location will be consigned to the dustbin
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Old Mar 22nd 2008, 3:24 am
  #73  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by dunroving
The other problem with new builds (apartments, mostly) is that lenders are much more reluctant to finance new build apartments because they are the sector of the housing market that has suffered the most (falling values) in the last 12-24 months.
There is also the factor that in most markets (rising or falling), new-build property carries a premium over most existing property, unless the latter is pretty special.

Something like the way a new car depreciates once it's driven off the lot, although not as extreme.
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Old Mar 22nd 2008, 9:04 am
  #74  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by MikeStanton
The so-called property crash is more theory than practice...at least at the moment.

So, unless pressured to do so (eg unemployed or emigrating), most home-owners will just sit tight and wait for the prices to recover. What this means is that there is an increasing gap between buyer and seller expectations and fewer and fewer houses on the market.

In other words, if you're a buyer, lower prices are great, but you've got to find somebody who wants to sell first! Also, it will hit new builds as property developers realise they can't maximise gains, so will hold off building new properties. Which makes the situation worse.
What I'm hoping for is that, as the majority of people who are selling are also buying, they will eventually cotton on that a drop on every property will benefit the whole chain. Less stamp, less fees etc.
The only ones to loose out will be the investors, those dropping into negative equity and those freeing up monies to emigrate etc.
I hope the estate agents will drive this as turnover drops.
Trouble is for most people there is to much emotion involved and not enough common sense.
At the moment for us the gap in costs to rent v buy are big enough to make it a no brainer.

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Old Mar 23rd 2008, 3:59 am
  #75  
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Default Re: UK's great property crash

Originally Posted by JAJ
There is also the factor that in most markets (rising or falling), new-build property carries a premium over most existing property, unless the latter is pretty special.

Something like the way a new car depreciates once it's driven off the lot, although not as extreme.
I'm not sure that this is true in the UK where new build is often of a lower quality than houses built up to circa 1980.

Assuming that the house hasn't been left to decay, I'd much prefer an Edwardian detached than a brand new build.

In Australia it appears to be the reverse where houses and buildings generally are much more temporary.
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