Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Hi all, planning to move back (after 17 years and many countries in between) going through the motions of figuring out employment, schools, where to live, (and the right order) by the summer of 2018.

What's the general feeling on employment opportunities for Brits back home following brexit?

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

At the moment things are very good. There is almost full employment and there has been little impact of brexit- the IMF has to do a bit of a grovelling interview yesterday after all their forecasts of doom proved false. 2018 though is a long time away and impossible to know what will happen by then regardless of brexit.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

FFS! Brexit hasn't even started yet, so why would there be any impact, the time to talk of the effect Brexit is having is once Article 50 has been invoked, and once the terms of the leaving are known, and that won't be for several years yet.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Well that's good to hear that the doomsday scenario that was predicted didn't really happen. Ofcourse its understandable that the real impact will be unveiled as part of the unraveling process.

Guess I will keep my fingers crossed :), thanks for your perspective.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

No it hasn't, but to date all of the doom mongers have being proved wrong - hence yesterdays embarrassment from the IMF. During the debate the remain camp repeated the claims the 4 horse of the apocalypse were about to come over the horizon. They haven't and they wont.


Even the most remain supporting press are now struggling to find negatives. Even the hardest of Brexit's now seems unlikely to cause much of an issue

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Aside from the currency exchange hit...good to hear relatively little impact.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

The reason that the doom mongers have been proved wrong is because Brexit hasn't happened.
Car manufacturers like Nissan have contingency plans depending of the outcome of Brexit.
A large European investment bank I am familiar with is drawing up plans to move from London to Dublin (perhaps) but will delay a decision until post - Brexit conditions are known.
The doom mongers as you call them were speculating on what could happen post - Brexit and not post - referendum.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

but Brexit hasn't even started yet, the UK is still a full member of the EU and getting access to the single market, so, no, things haven't changed, wait two years down the line and see if the answer is the same, I somewhat doubt it.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

The pound is at mid-eighties lows against the $US and heading back towards parity with the euro (1.14 this morning) while against the $C its almost back to the 2011 plateau in the low 1.60 region.

This pleases me because the overwhelming bulk of my pension income streams are sourced in $C and Euros.

Thank you Boris and Empress Treeza, but please stop it now.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Often repeated but not actually true. People seem to have very short memories. The Remain campaign made endless claims that a vote to leave would trigger an immediate recession and Osborne stated would need be an emergency budget to cope with the repercussions none of which has occurred.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

But the reason they didn't occur was because the Bank of England stepped in with yet more quantitative easing and a reduction in interest rates.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Job losses are predicted in the financial services industry and manufacturing. It depends on what kind of brexit we have, but since we seem to be heading for a 'hard' brexit, substantial job losses seem likely.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

I doubt a 0.25% decrease in interest rates is what is making the FTSE skyrocket and GDP increase. All the vote has done so far is make sterling fall across the Euro and USD which has made British exports cheaper.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

The FTSE has 'sky rocketed' primarily because of the fall in the value of sterling. Big companies make their profits in USD but report their profits in GBP.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

That may be true for the FTSE 100 but since the FTSE 250 is also approaching record levels then it can't be simply attributed to a handful of the biggest multinationals cashing in on the exchange rate.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

My feeling is that BREXIT will eventually be bad for the UK economy. It will be interesting to see what happens to the UK financial industry if the Tories go for a hard BREXIT and The City loses it's "passport" to trade in Europe...I can see there being a deal done in that area because it will hit a lot of powerful people's pockets, but if the EU and the UK are both tough on the migration issue, then The City might be in trouble.

However, whatever the economic results of BREXIT, its sociological results seem quite plain right now. The UK is less welcoming and is seen as bigoted by many foreigners. It feels like a backwards step and my UK friends who live in the EU and those that get EU funding for scientific research are very worried. Two are thinking about getting French citizenship and another two are seriously looking at leaving the UK to continue their research. I probably won't be retiring back to the UK because I frankly don't like the prevailing xenophobic atmosphere....unless Scotland manages to break away and join the EU....I think I could live in Scotland. I find myself as an Englishman who doesn't want to live in England anymore.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

First, I don't think you understand passporting and have probably read far too much on news sites such as guardian. Have a read of things like Moody's for a better understanding. The reality is even with a very hard brexit, the affect on financial services is very minimal. It only affects certain transactions. There is also a huge amount of other aspects that affect financial services.

With manufacturing, I also suggest you look at other news sites and factual sites such as dti to look at what we export to the EU.

As for xenophobic. As someone that has moved from Oz this year with a none British wife, I have not seen any or heard of any other than press trying to stir the pot. Certainly no worse than pre brexit or any of the other countries we have lived / worked in.

With regard science and science funding this attitude makes my blood boil and any scientists displaying such poor grasp of reality are probably the reason why UK science has been declining for a number of years - I am a scientist - they are clearly stupid. All of the major research institutes I know have as many staff from none EU countries as EU. Even space projects funded by the EU have large numbers of international staff. All of these projects collaborate internationally both with countries in the EU and outside.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Eh? All nun said was that UK scientists who are funded by the EU are worried (because there's no hope in hell of that funding being replaced by UK sources).

EU funded scientists do of course collaborate with non-EU scientists, but it's bring your own bottle collaboration.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

I read a wide range of papers and articles. A different opinion does not necessarily come from being ill informed.

The EU recognizing new UK market directives would help The City, but that will probably be a bargaining chip in the negotiations.

But my main sadness is that I'm now ashamed of England. I understand that some people see BREXIT as a positive thing and there are many that are proud rather than xenophobic.....but it's easy for national pride to switch over to something less worthy and I see that happening in the UK, not so much in London, but I've seen it in the North East and I rode my bike through Lincolnshire a few years ago and I was shocked at some of the racism I heard in the pubs.

There is certainly lots of science funding that doesn't rely on the EU. As an example all my funding in the US comes from the US and Japan. However, the scientists I know do get direct funding from the EU to do HIV research and that will have to be replaced from sources like Wellcome or new UK Government grants to avoid layoffs. Given the uncertainty they are looking at offers to take their labs to EU universities. My friends that live in France have been there for 30 years so getting French citizenship will insulate them from being hostage to the negotiations.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Interesting opinion from Daniel Hannan.

European Commission calls Britain racist while the Far Right marches in their backyard | Daily Mail Online

My own point of view is that your opinion does have some merit, but my feeling is that this 'xenophobia' is brought about more by the uncontrolled limits of immigration over the past few years rather than outright racism.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

It's not always about the economy and sometimes a crash is needed to come back to reality:lol:. It won't harm the first time buyers who currently can't afford housing but Mr Smith with the fancy job and huge mortgage might feel it if he loses that finance job. I don't agree with the UK leaving the EU but we don't know yet and life will still go on for now. I recently crossed the border to the North and didn't notice the prevailing xenophobic atmosphere, so those Brits didn't seem too bad.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

I suppose my feelings about the UK could be construed as xenophobic themselves if I was to put on my US citizen hat......is it xenophobic to hate xenophobes?

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Since you specifically mentioned the north east earlier let me add that I've not noticed an increase in xenophobia in Newcastle. But Newcastle was the only place in the north east which voted to remain.

I agree with your other point though: I too am embarrassed to be English since June.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

But that is even more stupid when the government has officially announced that funding will be matched. Though personally I would like to see a major rethink on funding. I see projects that don't warrant a single penny but get tens of thousands. The current system is as bad as the CAP. All academics winge about funding, but the reality is there are a lot of them that shouldn't be getting funding.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

After living in 13 countries and visiting more than I can bother counting, by far the most racist country (excluding some African spots) was the USA, followed by France.


There are always odd individuals that are idiots, but that is everywhere and they are tiny and regarded as idiots.


People supporting Brexit and the measures recently announced are not racists. It isn't racist to think that an employer should where possible hire a local. It isn't unreasonable to expect employers to train people, it isn't unreasonable to implement an immigration system that brings in skills we need while excluding low skilled people that have driven down wages of those that can least afford it. In the UK we have seen millions of eastern European people arrive willing to work for less than a UK family can live on. The result in some areas has been disasterous.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

The government said (and of course governments never lie) only that they would fund projects already funded by the EU at the time of Brexit.

I suppose the projects which shouldn't get a penny aren't in your own field? And talking of the CAP, UK farmers benefit from that as do the other countries.

Empress Treeza has stated, nay, promised that CAP funds will be replaced until 2020 (nine months after the Brexit as now scheduled).

My, how generous!

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Your statement that 'millions of eastern European people' have emigrated to the UK is wrong. The figure for Poland and Romania together is less than a million (figures from the Migration Observatory).

The fact that you perceive the figure as being much larger, unfortunately reveals a racist bias on your part. Next time you feel like making these kind of assertions, check your facts first.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Sadly, it won't just affect Mr Smith with his finance job. I have three friends who have seen their small business go under since Brexit. :(

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Millions of Eastern Europeans have moved here for work since 2004; they didn't all necessarily stay however. Many returned after the recession started. That trend has been reversing for the last few years as the UK economy has been improving in relation to the rest of the EU.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

I think we should stop calling people names here.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Evidence BiP?

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

I don't know if you know Jersey Channel Islands and they've done similar for years. A lot of lower skilled jobs require 5 years residency and when it comes to housing you also have qualified and non qualified. However, because the island is so small the problems still remain and they have overcrowding, high property prices for all.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/sta...ion-statistics

Migration from the 'Accession 8' countries and latterly Bulgaria and Romania stands at 1,277,000 since 2004. Bearing in mind that the ONS's definition of a migrant is someone who states on arrival that they intend to stay for more than twelve months then you could conservatively double that figure based on the number of NI numbers being issued. By 2010 alone the Home Office had issued one million Worker Registration Scheme certificates to A8 workers.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

But Brexit hasn't happened yet.

I made this comment on another thread the other day, some Remainiac repeating over and over again that the reason the sky hasn't fallen in is because Brexit hasn't happend yet. Then a few pages later they said their friend lost job because of Brexit.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

You think big businesses make their profits in US$? Why on earth would you think that. Multinationals make their profits in many different currencies and will hedge their real (as opposed to accounting) FX exposures.

A UK headquartered multinational will indeed consolidate the accounts from many different curries into GBP and hence have a FX impact for accounting purposes only. But how many UK HQ multinationals do you have think have actually reported profits since June 23? Not many. Certainly not enough to drive the FTSE and in any case analysts / traders would be very well aware of the impact of accounting FX gains and would make allowances for that.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Exactly and small businesses close every day with or without a so called Brexit. It's always been the same and some people will win and others will lose. People also always talk about house prices dropping and how terrible that might be. No, not for the first time buyer who can finally maybe afford a home.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Brexit won't make the sky fall. But it will slowly erode the UK's economy and it's soul. We can see that in the way Liam Fox is ok with suggesting that the current rights of EU citizens living in the UK will be used in the negotiations.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

HMG has already stated they wish to guarantee the rights of EU citizens already resident in the UK. It's the EU refusing to make any promises before Article 50 is invoked that is the stumbling block.

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

HMG said that a few weeks ago, but speeches at the Conservative conference from hard Brexit fans like Liam Fox have put those rights back on the table as a bargaining chip. This is probably why Hollander was so tough in his speech yesterday

Re: Newbie Intro: Planning to move back - Brexit impact?
 

Only because the EU wants to show it's willing to play hardball to stop others from considering jumping ship. It's just both sides wanting to be billy big bollocks. Transitional arrangements for existing residents will be the first thing to be agreed come April.