Crash.Good time to move back
#31
Forum Regular
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Kapiti Coast, New Zealand
Posts: 63
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by SANDRAPAUL
New Zealand must be further from reality than I thought. You need to read the future not the present. If you want a bargain then look towards 2006/7. That is when the bite will sink in. History has it that any downturn takes 18 months to 2 years to have any major effect. Its like before. Slowly they rise and then gain momentum until they tip over the hill and very slowly start to gain speed until .... they hit bottom of the hill - much later. 2005 will see some increases albeit minor and some fairly good drops. But only in areas no one wants to live in.
After this result I am now going back to UK where folk are still in the denial stage of not wanting to believe their PAPER assets are falling in value.
Your house is only worth what someone can pay. The UK has killed the bottom of the market by pricing out first time buyers. Sure some houses in Surrey etc will sell but the majority will struggle until something (?) is done to allow first time buyers back in.
Until then the house maket will freeze up until people have the courage to drop their price and get on with their lives.
Call it a property crash or a slow crawl to the edge but when you get to that edge it's still goes down just as fast :scared:
K.S.
#32
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jul 2004
Location: London Ontario
Posts: 998
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by Kayser Soze
I might physically be in New Zealand but even here we have electricity and THE INTERNET . Here too, they don't know, or wish to accept, that they are in a property bubble and that is why I have bought, done up, and sold two properties in the last year (and 2 in UK, 1 in Spain the previous year).
After this result I am now going back to UK where folk are still in the denial stage of not wanting to believe their PAPER assets are falling in value.
Your house is only worth what someone can pay. The UK has killed the bottom of the market by pricing out first time buyers. Sure some houses in Surrey etc will sell but the majority will struggle until something (?) is done to allow first time buyers back in.
Until then the house maket will freeze up until people have the courage to drop their price and get on with their lives.
Call it a property crash or a slow crawl to the edge but when you get to that edge it's still goes down just as fast :scared:
K.S.
After this result I am now going back to UK where folk are still in the denial stage of not wanting to believe their PAPER assets are falling in value.
Your house is only worth what someone can pay. The UK has killed the bottom of the market by pricing out first time buyers. Sure some houses in Surrey etc will sell but the majority will struggle until something (?) is done to allow first time buyers back in.
Until then the house maket will freeze up until people have the courage to drop their price and get on with their lives.
Call it a property crash or a slow crawl to the edge but when you get to that edge it's still goes down just as fast :scared:
K.S.
Yes ... pick an area that is seeing price drops of a major effect. I bet you would not want to live there long term. Prices will adjust as relates to earnings but over a long term. Might not suit your needs. Thats all I was was saying. Do not burn your bridges just yet.
Some people are not grateful for advice.
#33
Forum Regular
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Kapiti Coast, New Zealand
Posts: 63
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by SANDRAPAUL
Your just going through the wishful stage. If you read my thread I said nothing about prices not eventually going down. Emotional behaviour does not bring prices down just when you want to 'come home'. Read and learn as I have been told many times.
Yes ... pick an area that is seeing price drops of a major effect. I bet you would not want to live there long term. Prices will adjust as relates to earnings but over a long term. Might not suit your needs. Thats all I was was saying. Do not burn your bridges just yet.
Some people are not grateful for advice.
Yes ... pick an area that is seeing price drops of a major effect. I bet you would not want to live there long term. Prices will adjust as relates to earnings but over a long term. Might not suit your needs. Thats all I was was saying. Do not burn your bridges just yet.
Some people are not grateful for advice.
Absolutely right! I want to, and am, coming home and want all UK houses to drop in price by 50% so I can buy one to live in and some more to make a profit on and am honest enough to make that vested interest statement.
I have no need to live in areas which will see the biggest drops and have the poorest social problems but that wouldn't stop me buying there to develop.
All I know now is that there is not much optimism related to the UK housing market and the vultures are getting their flying hats on........
Now if you could just get that crash going a bit faster I will be back in May
K.S.
#34
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jul 2004
Location: London Ontario
Posts: 998
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by Kayser Soze
Absolutely right! I want to, and am, coming home and want all UK houses to drop in price by 50% so I can buy one to live in and some more to make a profit on and am honest enough to make that vested interest statement.
I have no need to live in areas which will see the biggest drops and have the poorest social problems but that wouldn't stop me buying there to develop.
All I know now is that there is not much optimism related to the UK housing market and the vultures are getting their flying hats on........
Now if you could just get that crash going a bit faster I will be back in May
K.S.
I have no need to live in areas which will see the biggest drops and have the poorest social problems but that wouldn't stop me buying there to develop.
All I know now is that there is not much optimism related to the UK housing market and the vultures are getting their flying hats on........
Now if you could just get that crash going a bit faster I will be back in May
K.S.
#35
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by Kayser Soze
Absolutely right! I want to, and am, coming home and want all UK houses to drop in price by 50% so I can buy one to live in and some more to make a profit on and am honest enough to make that vested interest statement.
I have no need to live in areas which will see the biggest drops and have the poorest social problems but that wouldn't stop me buying there to develop.
All I know now is that there is not much optimism related to the UK housing market and the vultures are getting their flying hats on........
Now if you could just get that crash going a bit faster I will be back in May
K.S.
I have no need to live in areas which will see the biggest drops and have the poorest social problems but that wouldn't stop me buying there to develop.
All I know now is that there is not much optimism related to the UK housing market and the vultures are getting their flying hats on........
Now if you could just get that crash going a bit faster I will be back in May
K.S.
What goes around comes around, even if it takes years to happen!
Merlot
#36
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2005
Location: the wrong place
Posts: 892
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by Kayser Soze
Absolutely right! I want to, and am, coming home and want all UK houses to drop in price by 50% so I can buy one to live in and some more to make a profit on and am honest enough to make that vested interest statement.
I have no need to live in areas which will see the biggest drops and have the poorest social problems but that wouldn't stop me buying there to develop.
All I know now is that there is not much optimism related to the UK housing market and the vultures are getting their flying hats on........
Now if you could just get that crash going a bit faster I will be back in May
K.S.
I have no need to live in areas which will see the biggest drops and have the poorest social problems but that wouldn't stop me buying there to develop.
All I know now is that there is not much optimism related to the UK housing market and the vultures are getting their flying hats on........
Now if you could just get that crash going a bit faster I will be back in May
K.S.
#37
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 223
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by psb182
the USA would suit you right down to the ground mate.......some people over here hugging you while at the same time sticking a kitchen knife in yer back
Yes, on this side of the pond we english understate our intention with a *smile* and a pleasant *sorry* as the knife *slowly* enters and exits leaving no more than a *sore* pinprick on the outside and massive hemorrhage on the inside. we call it the english hissss
And if that does not work .... we form a political lobby group .... :scared:
"House price campaign launched"
Wednesday, 26 Jan 2005 09:17
House prices need to be regulated, according to a new campaign groupEmail
House prices have roughly doubled in the last five years, and have accelerated far in excess of wage growth, making homes less affordable for first-time buyers.
The House Price Control campaign intends to write to MPs urging them to use regulation to hold back property prices and tackle issues relating to affordability head-on.
Head of the campaign, Bob Goodall, said: "No one benefits from house price inflation. High house prices are an illusion of wealth that mean higher costs such as insurance."
The group wants to start a debate on the possibilities of regulating the market.
"Regulation is a free tool for the government that costs nothing financially," he added.
Mr Goodall said: "The best way of ratcheting up the standard of living of people in this country is to regulate the biggest cost in their lives: housing."
However, Halifax chief economist Martin Ellis said the campaign was a case of shutting the stable door after the horse had decided to return anyway.
"The market has been slowing for some months," he said.
Since November 2003 the Bank of England has increased the cost of borrowing five times, adding £1,000 to the repayment cost of an average mortgage last year alone.
This is widely seen as responsible for a cooling of house price inflation, which most commentators believe will be lower than wage growth this year.
This week the Government launched a five-year strategy aimed at resolving problems faced by those seeking to get onto the property ladder.
The scheme is based around building large numbers of cheap homes, and allowing people to buy an equity stake in homes rented from housing associations and local authorities, which can be enlarged or sold on later.
The new Government initiative came days after a survey from Halifax, the country's largest mortgage lender, found that average income first-time buyers were unable to afford a home in 92 per cent of the UK.
odaat
#38
Forum Regular
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Kapiti Coast, New Zealand
Posts: 63
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by SANDRAPAUL
I hope then for everyone else in the UK that you do NOT get want you want.
How quickly you assume that I am that vulture?????
Do you think it is easy buying property and doing it up. Does the decorating do itself. Who else takes the risk? Who has to find the tenants?
That's right, the guy who buys the place and tries to make a go of it.
All I am saying is that UK is looking good for that. Not that I want to see folk in the gutter so all this 'goes around, comes around stuff' is way off target.
I've done my bit for those who rent and often at lower :scared: than market rates but the truth is there are those who wll always have money and those who won't.
Lower house prices are good for everyone. Except those smug sods congratulating themselves on their paper wealth for which they took no risk and put in no effort (remember 'effort' UK????) whatsoever.
Wouldn't you as a member of UK society like to see young kids with at least a half chance of getting their own place or would that be too much of a shock to your paper fortune?
K.S.
#39
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Lower house prices are good for everyone. Except those smug sods congratulating themselves on their paper wealth for which they took no risk and put in no effort (remember 'effort' UK????) whatsoever.
Wouldn't you as a member of UK society like to see young kids with at least a half chance of getting their own place or would that be too much of a shock to your paper fortune?
.
Wouldn't you as a member of UK society like to see young kids with at least a half chance of getting their own place or would that be too much of a shock to your paper fortune?
.
#40
Forum Regular
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: scotland
Posts: 64
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by Kayser Soze
How quickly you assume that I am that vulture?????
Do you think it is easy buying property and doing it up. Does the decorating do itself. Who else takes the risk? Who has to find the tenants?
That's right, the guy who buys the place and tries to make a go of it.
All I am saying is that UK is looking good for that. Not that I want to see folk in the gutter so all this 'goes around, comes around stuff' is way off target.
I've done my bit for those who rent and often at lower :scared: than market rates but the truth is there are those who wll always have money and those who won't.
Lower house prices are good for everyone. Except those smug sods congratulating themselves on their paper wealth for which they took no risk and put in no effort (remember 'effort' UK????) whatsoever.
Wouldn't you as a member of UK society like to see young kids with at least a half chance of getting their own place or would that be too much of a shock to your paper fortune?
K.S.
Do you think it is easy buying property and doing it up. Does the decorating do itself. Who else takes the risk? Who has to find the tenants?
That's right, the guy who buys the place and tries to make a go of it.
All I am saying is that UK is looking good for that. Not that I want to see folk in the gutter so all this 'goes around, comes around stuff' is way off target.
I've done my bit for those who rent and often at lower :scared: than market rates but the truth is there are those who wll always have money and those who won't.
Lower house prices are good for everyone. Except those smug sods congratulating themselves on their paper wealth for which they took no risk and put in no effort (remember 'effort' UK????) whatsoever.
Wouldn't you as a member of UK society like to see young kids with at least a half chance of getting their own place or would that be too much of a shock to your paper fortune?
K.S.
Now what is my profit in NZ$ !!!!!!!! MEGA, AND THAT'S ONLY 1 HOUSE.
SO GLAD TO BE HOME
#41
Account Closed
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 324
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by Kayser Soze
Lower house prices are good for everyone. Except those smug sods congratulating themselves on their paper wealth for which they took no risk and put in no effort (remember 'effort' UK????) whatsoever.
Wouldn't you as a member of UK society like to see young kids with at least a half chance of getting their own place or would that be too much of a shock to your paper fortune?
K.S.
High house prices are only good for the banks. They get house buyers to take on mega debt to buy a shoe box of a house and if a recession comes and the poor sod cant afford the high repayments, they get the house via repossesion, win win for them!
If house prices are affordable then people have more money to spend in other areas of the economy. People can upgrade to larger houses easier. The best part is that young people can buy that elusive first home. Unfortunetly no youngsters can buy now, unless mummy and daddy bung them a 50K or so deposit, even that is not enough in most areas of the UK now.
Home owners are blinded by their "paper" wealth, but what real use is this? It doesnt really benefit the house holder, it doesnt benefit their kids and it certainly doesnt benefit society. Then they have the cheek to say that first time buyers are evil and selfish for wanting prices to be affordable!! Pot and kettle spring to mind here!
So I say to SANDRAPAUL, please dont pray for the population of the UK that Kayser is wrong. From where I am sitting their are a lot of increasingly desperate people praying that he is right. How would YOU like to be a locked out first time buyer facing a lifetime of renting. Having to listen to smug gits who boast how their home has tripled in 7 years? The only way this country is going to reset this unjust situation is through a major crash. I am not too worried though it is already happening, the UK is in the denial stage. Reality will hit home in Spring, when the so called "bounce" in house prices turns flat. I predict instead a "flood" of properties entering the market form vendors who have held back until Spring (traditionlly the markets busiest time). Surprise, suprise, no first time buyers who can AFFORD them, so hardly any sell which leads to prices falling as increasing desperate vendors slash the price tag to unload their property before the REALLY big price falls kick in by the end of the year.
Last edited by eatstatic; Jan 26th 2005 at 10:56 pm.
#42
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by Kayser Soze
I have no need to live in areas which will see the biggest drops and have the poorest social problems but that wouldn't stop me buying there to develop.
K.S.
K.S.
I am not an intellectual or social expert or trying to be. The way I see the circle going is "the "haves" and "have nots" with of course the ones in the middle bobbling around, trying to better themselves.
The "have nots" want a piece of the "haves" lifestyle or couldn't care less and just want to get stoned on herion or whatever. Either way the "have nots" start to resent the "haves", so what to they do, rob their houses, steal and trash their cars, cause mayhem in the streets so they are not safe. They continue to drain our social security systems beacuse why the hell should they have to work for a living.
My theory, and this is an opinion not preaching (before I get anymore nasty e-mails), is that with the breakdown of communities, the desire to have wealth/nice lifestyle and all that, means we are a poorer world for it. Seems to be every man, woman and child for themselves and I think this is sad, a real life thing but sad.
My reference point about things coming around, whether you care for it or not (your choice, you are a grown up), is that when I left school I worked for a very big highflyer, self made man and also self collasped at times, losing the lot and starting again.
He told me never crap on anyone on the way up as you never know you might need them on the way down. Life is not all perfect.
I wish everyone well with their property transactions, what ever floats your boat.
Merlot
#43
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 223
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by Merlot
Some people may have to live in these areas, maybe not by choice, by circumstance.
I am not an intellectual or social expert or trying to be. The way I see the circle going is "the "haves" and "have nots" with of course the ones in the middle bobbling around, trying to better themselves.
The "have nots" want a piece of the "haves" lifestyle or couldn't care less and just want to get stoned on herion or whatever. Either way the "have nots" start to resent the "haves", so what to they do, rob their houses, steal and trash their cars, cause mayhem in the streets so they are not safe. They continue to drain our social security systems beacuse why the hell should they have to work for a living.
My theory, and this is an opinion not preaching (before I get anymore nasty e-mails), is that with the breakdown of communities, the desire to have wealth/nice lifestyle and all that, means we are a poorer world for it. Seems to be every man, woman and child for themselves and I think this is sad, a real life thing but sad.
My reference point about things coming around, whether you care for it or not (your choice, you are a grown up), is that when I left school I worked for a very big highflyer, self made man and also self collasped at times, losing the lot and starting again.
He told me never crap on anyone on the way up as you never know you might need them on the way down. Life is not all perfect.
I wish everyone well with their property transactions, what ever floats your boat.
Merlot
I am not an intellectual or social expert or trying to be. The way I see the circle going is "the "haves" and "have nots" with of course the ones in the middle bobbling around, trying to better themselves.
The "have nots" want a piece of the "haves" lifestyle or couldn't care less and just want to get stoned on herion or whatever. Either way the "have nots" start to resent the "haves", so what to they do, rob their houses, steal and trash their cars, cause mayhem in the streets so they are not safe. They continue to drain our social security systems beacuse why the hell should they have to work for a living.
My theory, and this is an opinion not preaching (before I get anymore nasty e-mails), is that with the breakdown of communities, the desire to have wealth/nice lifestyle and all that, means we are a poorer world for it. Seems to be every man, woman and child for themselves and I think this is sad, a real life thing but sad.
My reference point about things coming around, whether you care for it or not (your choice, you are a grown up), is that when I left school I worked for a very big highflyer, self made man and also self collasped at times, losing the lot and starting again.
He told me never crap on anyone on the way up as you never know you might need them on the way down. Life is not all perfect.
I wish everyone well with their property transactions, what ever floats your boat.
Merlot
Sadly the world and most bods in it do not have the wisdom to learn such a basic principle as do to others as you would have them do to you ....
The Haves will always invest and prosper, the Have nots adapt or go under, the drug option takes from the Haves as much as from the Have nots.
As for wanting more, Warren Buffett - world's greatest investor writes " What I am is a realist. I always knew I would like what I am doing. Oh, perhaps it would have been nice to be a major league baseball player, but thats where the realism comes in. I earn more or desire less."
No doubt about it, the UK prop market is overpriced from the "norm" 3.5 x salary. Falling house prices have started - and will continue to fall in areas where owner's cannot service debt i.e. uninsured suddenly unemployed , divorce, ill health, spiralling debt, pensioners, fraudsters ( lots of BTL + FTB have made up false earnings just to get a mortgage) - remember most people have less than three months liqiud assets between them and the street.
Sales can only go through if a buyer agrees, the less the buyer agrees - what can the "forced" seller do about it ?
As for when the bloodbath and crashing ego's will start .... Keep your eyes peeled on the labour U turns after the May election, unrest in the middle east, the knock on effect on world oil prices, loss of trade as a result of a strong UK pound, UK cost of living rises, the war budget drain on the US , US interest rates, unemployment figures in the UK and UK interest rates - As they rise, prop prices will fall dramatically.
Heres a tip if you are selling - take the best offer on the table and not wait for the spring "bounce" - only bunnies bounce
My 2c worth,
odaat.
#44
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by odaat
Nice warm and fuzzy hugs to you as well Merlot
Sadly the world and most bods in it do not have the wisdom to learn such a basic principle as do to others as you would have them do to you ....
The Haves will always invest and prosper, the Have nots adapt or go under, the drug option takes from the Haves as much as from the Have nots.
As for wanting more, Warren Buffett - world's greatest investor writes " What I am is a realist. I always knew I would like what I am doing. Oh, perhaps it would have been nice to be a major league baseball player, but thats where the realism comes in. I earn more or desire less."
No doubt about it, the UK prop market is overpriced from the "norm" 3.5 x salary. Falling house prices have started - and will continue to fall in areas where owner's cannot service debt i.e. uninsured suddenly unemployed , divorce, ill health, spiralling debt, pensioners, fraudsters ( lots of BTL + FTB have made up false earnings just to get a mortgage) - remember most people have less than three months liqiud assets between them and the street.
Sales can only go through if a buyer agrees, the less the buyer agrees - what can the "forced" seller do about it ?
As for when the bloodbath and crashing ego's will start .... Keep your eyes peeled on the labour U turns after the May election, unrest in the middle east, the knock on effect on world oil prices, loss of trade as a result of a strong UK pound, UK cost of living rises, the war budget drain on the US , US interest rates, unemployment figures in the UK and UK interest rates - As they rise, prop prices will fall dramatically.
Heres a tip if you are selling - take the best offer on the table and not wait for the spring "bounce" - only bunnies bounce
My 2c worth,
odaat.
Sadly the world and most bods in it do not have the wisdom to learn such a basic principle as do to others as you would have them do to you ....
The Haves will always invest and prosper, the Have nots adapt or go under, the drug option takes from the Haves as much as from the Have nots.
As for wanting more, Warren Buffett - world's greatest investor writes " What I am is a realist. I always knew I would like what I am doing. Oh, perhaps it would have been nice to be a major league baseball player, but thats where the realism comes in. I earn more or desire less."
No doubt about it, the UK prop market is overpriced from the "norm" 3.5 x salary. Falling house prices have started - and will continue to fall in areas where owner's cannot service debt i.e. uninsured suddenly unemployed , divorce, ill health, spiralling debt, pensioners, fraudsters ( lots of BTL + FTB have made up false earnings just to get a mortgage) - remember most people have less than three months liqiud assets between them and the street.
Sales can only go through if a buyer agrees, the less the buyer agrees - what can the "forced" seller do about it ?
As for when the bloodbath and crashing ego's will start .... Keep your eyes peeled on the labour U turns after the May election, unrest in the middle east, the knock on effect on world oil prices, loss of trade as a result of a strong UK pound, UK cost of living rises, the war budget drain on the US , US interest rates, unemployment figures in the UK and UK interest rates - As they rise, prop prices will fall dramatically.
Heres a tip if you are selling - take the best offer on the table and not wait for the spring "bounce" - only bunnies bounce
My 2c worth,
odaat.
Do you know when we returned to the UK the thing that struck me and the other half was people's attitude to debt. It is more than the norm and nothing to be ashamed of as it every person's God given right to have credit.
My view is there are good and bad debts. Good are the managable ones, one's that have been considered before signing and used properly then the one's you see week in week out in shops or wherever. Sign up, take goods with not much intention of ever clearing the debt or knowing they are over committed as tomorrow never comes.
Yes the bubble has to burst, if not people's sanity due to the inability to make ends meet.
It will be interesting stuff the next few months eh! The thing is what part of the community do you think are going to suffer the most?
M
#45
Re: Crash.Good time to move back
Originally Posted by Merlot
Do you know when we returned to the UK the thing that struck me and the other half was people's attitude to debt. It is more than the norm and nothing to be ashamed of as it every person's God given right to have credit.
M