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Currency Report - 11/Dec GBP drops below €1.19 v Euro & no major data till next week!

Currency Report - 11/Dec GBP drops below €1.19 v Euro & no major data till next week!

 
Old Dec 11th 2013, 9:49 am
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Default Currency Report - 11/Dec GBP drops below €1.19 v Euro & no major data till next week!

UK News & Data releases

The Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate edged up towards $1.65 early yesterday but drifted lower towards the end of the day which suggests that $1.65 may be a bridge too far in the short run. UK data remains reasonably firm, but the deterioration in the October visible trade balance reported yesterday (and the upward revision in the September trade deficit) is a reminder that relatively strong UK growth is not necessarily GBP positive if it doesn't produce significant capital inflow, as trade flows will be working against the pound so the risks may be to the downside for GBP – EUR exchange rate.

USA News & Data releases

The USD remained under general pressure yesterday, and given that recent weakness appears to have been unrelated to news. It seems likely that a lot of the USD weakness is related to commercial demand, which is potentially year end related. The strength of the EUR and CHF may well be indicative of this, and there is a well-established seasonal tendency for the EUR (and CHF) to gain in December in any case. However, the Budget deal reached overnight may be seen as mildly USD positive.

Euro zone news & data releases

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate strength has slightly outpaced the narrowing of the USD’s forward point advantage in recent days, but not so much as to suggest we are heading for a major correction. Still, it is enough to suggest the 1.3832 high from October may not be easily broken in the short run. The ECB’s Constancio speaks today and may use to opportunity to make a mild protest against the strength of the EUR, but the lack of any significant protest from Draghi at the last press conference should mean this isn’t enough to have a major impact.

Aussie and New Zealand news and data releases

The Aussie Dollar has established good support below 0.90 and the risks now look to be biased to the upside given market short positioning and the generally stronger tone to industrial commodities in the early part of this month. However, there may be more focus on the NZD today with the RBNZ monetary policy statement tonight. The main interest is likely to be around the attitude to currency strength, with the last statement leaving the impression of grudging acceptance. If this is repeated, there may be more short term upside for NZD/USD towards 0.84.

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