UK General election 8th June
Apr 25th 2017, 11:23 am
#31
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,887
Re: UK General election 8th June
French guy in the office is hopeful but says it will be close.
Apr 25th 2017, 12:03 pm
#33
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,887
Re: UK General election 8th June
Apparently the polls in France are not only a predictor of the result but also a driver of the result. People tend to vote strategically based on the polls and the polls become self fulfilling.
A frechman obviously understands that better than I ever could.
Apr 26th 2017, 5:17 am
#34
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Re: UK General election 8th June
Exactly. That was my theory.
Apparently the polls in France are not only a predictor of the result but also a driver of the result. People tend to vote strategically based on the polls and the polls become self fulfilling.
A frechman obviously understands that better than I ever could.
Apparently the polls in France are not only a predictor of the result but also a driver of the result. People tend to vote strategically based on the polls and the polls become self fulfilling.
A frechman obviously understands that better than I ever could.
Apr 26th 2017, 8:42 am
#35
...we killed the flame
Joined: Jan 2017
Location: Dubai
Posts: 1,086
Re: UK General election 8th June
I hope she doesn't win, but one of the things I found interesting about Trump was the exit polls / opinion polls / TV polls / etc.
They all predicted Hillary winning.
They were almost (i'm sure not all) totally wrong.
One guy came on and suggested that lots of groups had reasons to hide their Trump vote; middle-class white women would obviously be Clinton fans and would say so...yet vote Trump. For example.
I think she's the wrong leader for that kind of party who label themselves as more progressive and positive than total racists. She's too close to her Dad whether she likes it or not.
All of this makes me think she won't win, but when the other option is a sub-40 yr old, new to the game, married to his old teacher ........ anything can happen.
I just don't know whether to put a fiver on her for chuckles or 100 on for a proper bet at 5/1.
They all predicted Hillary winning.
They were almost (i'm sure not all) totally wrong.
One guy came on and suggested that lots of groups had reasons to hide their Trump vote; middle-class white women would obviously be Clinton fans and would say so...yet vote Trump. For example.
I think she's the wrong leader for that kind of party who label themselves as more progressive and positive than total racists. She's too close to her Dad whether she likes it or not.
All of this makes me think she won't win, but when the other option is a sub-40 yr old, new to the game, married to his old teacher ........ anything can happen.
I just don't know whether to put a fiver on her for chuckles or 100 on for a proper bet at 5/1.
I think the media are playing up the French horse race as always but 60/40 is not a close race and thankfully the Front National remains toxic to most French voters (hence Le Pen's transparently cynical efforts to distance herself from the party). This resembles the Dutch election when Wilders' chances were massively over-stated by the media - particularly the British media running with a rabid Brexit/Nexit narrative - bearing little relationship to the actual developing reality on the ground.
For a 2 horse race 5/1 is decent odds but I wouldn't waste a pony...
