Miss Ann Thrope

Of course now that you've explained everything to me it all becomes clear: the meaning of my username, the reality of the EU bogeyman, all of it! Thanks for your kind help. This is indeed typical of the deep and thoughtful insight that has led us to the magical world of Brexit.

Of course that does still leave me confused about the direct correlation between ignorance about the workings of the EU and antipathy to the EU. As an Irish person who has lived in the UK, I have observed that the difference in the level of understanding of the factual reality of the EU between the two electorates is striking; perhaps exemplified by the several Brexit voters I encountered who engaged in vociferous argument that MEPs were not directly elected.

Oh and Trotsky too! To think I've been in that man's thrall for so many years....

nonthaburi

Tend to disagree with that. I think it's fairly clear from what has played out already, in the way that the EU has set out the way that the negotiations will be carried out, that the EU will be dictating the terms of negotiation. Who the PM is, and the majority of said PM won't make much difference.

The election is an internal affair as far as the EU is concerned.

Millhouse

Correct. A bit like the Greek elections and the outcome they really had on the EU.

It's good for May as it makes her life easier. To say that it strengthens the negotiating position is a step too far really.

DXBtoDOH

There are two things to remember.

We have Brexit.

We also have presumably a trade treaty that will be negotiated following Brexit.

Those two are different.

Brexit itself will be a full, hard Brexit. No doubts about that.

The trade treaty is separate matter.

DXBtoDOH

Domino, mate,

With people like Miss Anne, it's never worth it. I mostly skip over his posts once I see who's written it.

Sometimes I dangle a bait for him and run

LouisB

The EU will set the terms as that's the much larger block, individually each country has little to lose compared to the UK.

UK does NOT have a strong hand.

The only thing our government can do is make it even worse, by burning bridges, hollow threats and shit like 'no deal better than a bad deal', without even analysing any of the options properly!

Best option for brexit if it goes ahead is play nice with EU and hope they cooporate, so far they have been extremely fair and cooperative. Will be the UK's fault is that stops, none of this 'punishment' bullsh1t.

After all brexit really is punitive enough itself. And 'WE' made that choice, not the EU.

Best option will be work out the detailed arrangements, lay it on the table and let the people decide if it is worth it. (Ironically this will require actual experts 😂🤦‍♂️).

Since only a complete fool would say yes to brexit without knowing the price. No brexit at ANY cost should ever be an option.

That includes the impact on our internal affairs including Scotland, NI, Gibraltar and Falklands to name a few. Along with our existing rights, FoM and expats abroad and immigrants here...

scrubbedexpat141

This is a very confused post, given the first paragraph is totally incorrect. But nevermind eh?
Before you ask where, look at the pound, look at the inflation that causes, look at the cost of living, look at the fact this all happened when nothing but a referendum happened. What about when we actually leave the EU?

But then that's all answered by your next paragraph, particularly; because to the Brexiteers all that matters is Britain leaving the EU. Most of them already accept some economic consequences.

You even wrote that seriously, right?

Most people don't give a shit what happens because **** the EU! We're back! We're GREAT Britain again! No more immigrants! No more dictatorship! **** Brussels! Wooooo!

This is really simple: I want the UK to succeed, my opinion is that it is more likely in the EU. I think we are less likely to succeed outside of the EU.
If we succeed post-Brexit, long term and on our own two feet, I'll be over the moon. It will give me real hope for the future, for my future in the UK. I will be genuinely pleased. Imagine if we match EU growth or something like that? It would be an incredible feat. Good on the UK.

If we fail? Then what? Our economy isn't so strong, people struggle more? What will happen? Will people like you be pleased because we're not in the EU and that's all that matters? Even if it's proven to be a really big mistake?

Millhouse

Calm Scampy. If the froggies vote the nutter in, the EU is finished anyway and the Brexiters will claim further genius.

scrubbedexpat141

The arrogant idiocy is beyond me.

scrubbedexpat141

5/1 offered.

I'm tempted but surely lightning can't strike a third time?

nonthaburi

She will fail overwhelmingly in the final ballot.

scrubbedexpat141

So did Trump and Brexit.

Miss Ann Thrope

It's not worth it because I prefer analysis and facts to bombastic claims and magical thinking.

And please, you flatter yourself (as usual): nothing you might dangle is of any interest.

Miss Ann Thrope

Le Pen was supposed to come first in the first round: all the polls had consistently indicated that since Q3 of last year. She was routinely surpassing 24%. Only since Penelopegate (the fall of Fillon) and Macron's subsequent rise did this picture shift with Le Pen and Macron running ahead of the rest and swapping the lead depending on the polls. Melenchon's post-debate rise and Fillon's late recovery allowed the media to make this a bigger horse race story than it really was.

In the end, the results came very close to what the polls had been saying for months except that the centrist pro-Europe candidate did a bit better than expected and Le Pen did a bit worse. For round 2 the polls show Macron way ahead, around 60-65% versus Le Pen at 35-40%. I am a bit concerned that that margin in the (previously notional, now actual) head-to-head has been tightening slightly but steadily over the past few weeks. However, the gap remains huge and despite how it is being spun, Le Pen underperformed her polls and will be disappointed not to have come first in round 1. She will certainly do better than her father did versus Chirac a generation ago but, make no mistake, a Le Pen win would be a massive earthquake compared to the gentle breeze of all the other "upsets". And I take heart from Geert Wilders' flop in the Netherlands (though, again, that was a British media narrative that got completely out of touch with reality) and the AfD fizzling out in Germany.

scrubbedexpat141

I hope she doesn't win, but one of the things I found interesting about Trump was the exit polls / opinion polls / TV polls / etc.

They all predicted Hillary winning.
They were almost (i'm sure not all) totally wrong.

One guy came on and suggested that lots of groups had reasons to hide their Trump vote; middle-class white women would obviously be Clinton fans and would say so...yet vote Trump. For example.

I think she's the wrong leader for that kind of party who label themselves as more progressive and positive than total racists. She's too close to her Dad whether she likes it or not.

All of this makes me think she won't win, but when the other option is a sub-40 yr old, new to the game, married to his old teacher ........ anything can happen.

I just don't know whether to put a fiver on her for chuckles or 100 on for a proper bet at 5/1.