Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by expat.brat
(Post 4701469)
They do. but to add to that, there is also the principle of those harbouring sour grapes complaining the loudest.
So, what is expat brat's carefully-reasoned argument in support of the belief that there is no property price correction coming? Do you actually have one, or are you just crossing your fingers and hoping for the best? And did you buy off-plan for around the 500k mark (in which case you'll probably be OK), or did you buy on the secondary market for some silly price (in which case you could well find yourself in a negative equity situation)? |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by W10
(Post 4701515)
I believe most analysts (as in the people paid to predict this stuff) predict a fall of 30% on apartments, villas will be affected less as most of the units being built are apartment complexes.
Also - I think International City will be ok. It is low end, so demand will remain higher. This is where the money will be in a few years time. (Thats not just me...look at how many low end projects are being launched at the moment). Remember that less than 8% of people in Dubai earn more than Dh20,000 a month. Incidentally - if it happens it would, in every single financially definable way be - a crash. It's just not called that over here. Just like the DFM falling 65% in 2006 was a 'correction' Interest=Profit Crash=Correction |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
I'm with Brat on this one. People have been confidently predicting the crash/correction whatever you want to call it since at least late 2004. Keep predicting long enough and you will be right eventually. I'm going to start predicting the next boom. Eventually I'll be right about that.
I think there is a correction coming on high end apartments, probably towards the end of this year or the start of next but I think more like 10% than 30%. Villas and cheaper apartments will do better, or less badly. In another couple of years supply and demand will reach some sort of balance and we (should) see a steady rise in prices thereafter. IMHO, of course.:cool: |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by Border Reiver
(Post 4701962)
I'm with Brat on this one. People have been confidently predicting the crash/correction whatever you want to call it since at least late 2004
I think there is a correction coming on high end apartments but I think more like 10% than 30% In another couple of years supply and demand will reach some sort of balance |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Ok I have read several threads of this ilk over the last couple of weeks and I am still not convinced one way or the other.
So can someone, or even everyone, give me their views on specifics. I had hoped to purchase a 3 bedroom villa in the springs. My logic being that the demand for villas is slightly better than the demand for apartments and that any impending "correction" will affect villas less. I plan on spending 3 years minimum in Dubai. I will be getting a reasonable allowance for accomodation and would hate to see it go into someone elses pocket when it could be paying off my own mortgage. A crash, sorry correction, of 20% over 3 years would still leave me breaking even. Should I buy a 3 bedroom villa or should I just play it safe and rent a 2 bedroom apartment? |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
My opinion would be to go for the Springs villa, but only if you've got a big deposit to put down (at least 40%) and can be sure you're buying one of the ones built by Arabtec. The fit and finish in the Arabtec ones ain't great, but they do have a reputation for not falling apart as spectacularly as the non-Arabtec ones :D
I would not buy a ready-to-live-in apartment now. They are overpriced, and the sole reason they are overpriced is that they are ready to live in. Anyone who thinks that the values of completed apartments are due to the Dubai property market being inherently strong is kidding themselves; they are highly valued because the constant delays to all the other projects that should have been finished by now has meant that there is a demand for liveable property; the Dubai population has increased since 2005, but the amount of ready-to-use residential property hasn't. That demand (and concomitant willingness to pay stupid prices) is strictly finite, as many people who have bought overpriced properties on unwisely large mortgages will discover over the next year or so... they will be expecting to be lease them out charging enough rent to cover their mortgage payments *and* make a profit on top, and it just won't happen. |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by Border Reiver
(Post 4701962)
I'm with Brat on this one. People have been confidently predicting the crash/correction whatever you want to call it since at least late 2004. Keep predicting long enough and you will be right eventually. I'm going to start predicting the next boom. Eventually I'll be right about that.
I think there is a correction coming on high end apartments, probably towards the end of this year or the start of next but I think more like 10% than 30%. Villas and cheaper apartments will do better, or less badly. In another couple of years supply and demand will reach some sort of balance and we (should) see a steady rise in prices thereafter. IMHO, of course.:cool: It was the same with DFM, unsustainable, exponential growth = boom and bust cycle. Investors thought they were bullet proof while the smart fund managers moved their money quietly away...who got burned? The individual investors who never had access to expert information. Who just had to rely on the 'everything is fine' mantra being peddled by the authorities. The same cycle will happen with property when these projects eventually get finished. It is a matter of simple economics. The market is artificial at the moment, and I'm sure the ultra-afluent here will prevent it from being as bad as it could be, but something will happen. Likewise it will happen again with Bawadi and Dubailand. You think there is the demand for another 150 hotels in the next 5 years? With more than 120 of them being in the middle of the desert, more than 20km from the beach? |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by alfro
(Post 4703498)
Ok I have read several threads of this ilk over the last couple of weeks and I am still not convinced one way or the other.
So can someone, or even everyone, give me their views on specifics. I had hoped to purchase a 3 bedroom villa in the springs. My logic being that the demand for villas is slightly better than the demand for apartments and that any impending "correction" will affect villas less. I plan on spending 3 years minimum in Dubai. I will be getting a reasonable allowance for accomodation and would hate to see it go into someone elses pocket when it could be paying off my own mortgage. A crash, sorry correction, of 20% over 3 years would still leave me breaking even. Should I buy a 3 bedroom villa or should I just play it safe and rent a 2 bedroom apartment? Your current rent - AED X (assume 15% more, won't matter) Interest cost on property: Insurance Costs (mortgage insurance, property insurance): Annual Fees for property/community maintenance: Maintenance costs - you have to bear this, could be high as warranty has expired in most cases, and quality poor): Municipality fees: Total : AED Y In addition consider the following one-off fees: Transfer fees, Land Registration fees, Mortgage processing fees to Bank, Mortgage Registration fees to Emaar/developer If Y is less than X then go ahead otherwise forget it for the moment. |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
I forgot about maintenance and registration costs. That could be tens of thousands a year onto your bill
|
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by W10
(Post 4704435)
I forgot about maintenance and registration costs. That could be tens of thousands a year onto your bill
Lots of other 'fees' crop up. For e.g. a No Objection Certificate from Emaar if you want to sell your place! This costs another 5k! |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by IndieGirl
(Post 4705598)
Maintenance: 35k for a 2bed in the Palm!!
Lots of other 'fees' crop up. For e.g. a No Objection Certificate from Emaar if you want to sell your place! This costs another 5k! MM, xx |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by Madam Medusa
(Post 4705625)
omg, you're kidding...you actually have to PAY Emaar for the privelidge of selling your own property? I had no idea. I've heard it all now...
MM, xx 1. Homeowners are finding they have limited leeway in choosing service providers for their communities and have to make do with the more expensive ones provided by the developers. 2. Even cooking gas delivery vans, drinking water delivery, newspaper and magazine vendors have to pay a charge of Dh600 per annum - if they have to deliver to residents in these developments. Obviously these costs get passed on to residents. 3. Residents also need to pay a sewage charge twice — once to Dewa and once through Emaar. 4. “Transfer fees as an example can vary. While some may charge Dh5,000, others can go higher," explains Solaiman. There is one private developer taking Dh15,000 for transfer charges. 5. “The developer puts what ever he wants on the contract paper, and often does not include details. Today as a seller, I have no choice, I have to pay. Changes will never come unless the procedures get clearly laid down from the Land Department.” |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
You're being rediculous, there's plenty more people with plenty more money that will continue the boom.
FACT |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by MJC
(Post 4705947)
You're being rediculous, there's plenty more people with plenty more money that will continue the boom.
FACT |
Re: The property apocalypse draws closer...
Originally Posted by MJC
(Post 4705947)
You're being rediculous, there's plenty more people with plenty more money that will continue the boom.
FACT Developers are struggling for finance - and atleast 2 major projects are lagging for this reason. No new buyers/new investors. FACT. I know this first hand...... Bye, off to grab a bite |
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